USA to win most Medals in 2008 Olympics - 20pts @ 6/5

In Atlanta 2004 the Olympic Medals Total Tally for the top 3 countries was as follows:

Gold Silver Bronze Total

1. United States 36 39 27 102
2. Russia 27 27 38 92
3. China 32 17 14 63

I am very suprised to see that 11/10 at William Hill/Betfair is availible on USA. Home advantge will count somewhat, (as well as the desire of the China state apparatus to win), but for China to overturn a 39 medal deficit would be an incredible achievement. I believe that they would need to make signficant improvements in both swimming and athletics (where the most medals are), and there is no indication of this. I actually think that Russia may still retain 2nd place.

N.B. Don't make the mistake that a China medal win = a USA model loss (i.e. a net 20 medal swing is all that is required - in many cases the medals that China are targetting are not currently held by USA.

I've reviewed other people's total medal predictions and they vary from close between China/USA or a USA win. Interestingly, the China/USA 'close' predictions come from those looking at 'generic' factors (e.g. population size, per captia income etc.) Those predicting a USA win looked at most recent World Championships in the events. I believe the latter to be more accurate methodology.

I've therefor at 20pts on Betfair at 6/5 on USA and 1pt at 20/1 on Russia to win Most Medals. N.B. Don't confuse this matket with most Gold medals - in this latter market, I think China have a very good chance of winning.