Monday, August 28, 2006

Lock in min. 42 pts profit on F1 - (back Renault 11.5 pts @ 9/2, McLaren 0.5 pts @ 200/1)

With Ferrari now 1/5 favourites, now is the time to lock in the profts I made by backing Ferrari @ 6/1. To do this I've backed at Extrabet the following:

Reanualt 11.5 pts @9/2
McLaren 1pt @ 200/1... Renault/Ferrrai disqualfied?

This gives me a 42 pt win if Renault win and 48pt win if Ferrrai win.

( Given the uncertainty of F1 (e.g Dixon last nioght), I actually think that Renault are a more than fair price at 9/2).

Pakistan v England - 20/20 Lay Pakistan @ 1.04 (2pts)

Pakistan needed 30 from 32 balls with 6 wickets remaining. Inzy looked like he wasn't concentrating.... laid Pakistan for 2 pts @1.04 to win 50 pts.

1pt Darren Gough - Top English Batsman - 66-1

20/20 matches always have the potential for lower order batsman to topscore. Although this is Pakistan's fisrt 20/20 game, they have a strong attacking lineup and may be able to destroy England's top batting order.

Darren Gough has a lot to prove on his first game back, and has a chance to top score with the bat.

Sunday, August 27, 2006

Dan Clarke 1.5 pts win 0.5 pts place 40-1 - Grand Prix of Montreal

With the wet track, there is the chance of an upset in this race (cf. Hunary for F1 3 weeks ago). 'Speedy' Dan Clarke (placed last time) is perfectly capable of providing this upset.

He was placed in the last race when Tracy collided with Bourdais (an event that could easily happen again!).

Clarke is a generally availible at 40-1.

Post Race Update: Dan Clarke finished 4th by backing up the field to let his colleague, who was pitting, finish 3rd.

6pts win 11/1 (Extrabet) Zara Philips - Sports Personality of the Year

Zara Philips has just won the Gold in the 3 day eventing World Championships. I am 'gutted' I missed the 40/1 last night on Zara Philips to win SPoY (when she was likely to win gold, or the 16/1 at William Hill while I was trying to register a new Credit Card online).

However, the 11/1 at Extrabet is still a great price on her to follow in her mother's foosteps in weak SPoY market. She has a strong combination of public recognition and actually winning an World Championship event (on BBC, which will help). By betting on Extrabet, this also gives me a chance to lock in a profit at a later date.

Most bookies suspened betting in the last 15 mins (as the price crashed from 28/1 to 8/1). Betfair are still currently trading - Zara is 3/1 (little liquidity)

This bet adds to my current portfolio of Jenson Button (start of sesaon) and Colin Montgomerie (during US Open).

Update: Now into 5/1 (3/1 at William Hill, 2.9 matched on Betfair)!

2nd Update: Zara Philips is now a 3/1 chance! I think this is a 2 horse race between Philips and Murray (which will be decided by how far Murray progresses in the US Open.)

1pt win - Regional Counsel - Curragh 4:25 (Saturday)

I placed this bet yesterady, so this is just for the record. I quite fancied the horse as it was the only one with Group Level form.... managed to finish 5th of 7

IRL - Grand Prix of Sonoma - Preview - 8:30 Sunday

As per my early post this week, I am convinced that (still) the bookies have priced this market wrong. For a road race course, the most likely winners are Castroneves and Dixon.

I have 4pts win on Dixon at 15/2... he is now approx 7/2. He is on pole and should be 2/1 chance. I have now placed a cover bet on Castroneves (1pt, 11/2 - should be a 5/2 chance) and Andretti (0.5pts, 12/1).

I have Hornish for the championship, but have a strong feeeling he probably needs to finish within 4-5 places of Castroneves (which could be tricky).

N.B. Hornish and Wheldon are terrible prices at the availible odds.

Post Race Update: I wish Betfair traded on this race....Dixon was 0.5 s quicker than the rest of the field and at 2/3 distance, he was trading at 1/8 at Stan James (I'd have laid at 1.2). A problematic pitstop under yellow put him far back in the field.

At least my cover bet on Andretti returned my stakes. In addition, in most scenarios, Hornish now just need to beat Castroneves for my 10 pt title bet on Hornish to come in... I'd make Hornish a 4/6 shot now (I'm on a 9/2)

Arsenal to win Premiership - 4pts 15/1 Betfair.

Arsenal have been unlucky in their first 2 games. The Betfair market has totally overreacted (as it always does with teams who have a bad start) and pushed Arsenal out from 9/1 to 15/1. It is a 38 game season!

I'm not convinced that Arsenal will win the championship, but Id be very surprised if the market didn't move in my favour, giving opportunities to layoff with a guaranteed profit.

Lock in of 50 pts. profit on Davis Love III

When Dvais Love when 3 pst clear last night (with 1.5 rounds to go), and went approx. even money I decided to layoff my 2pt bet @ 60/1.

Davis Love III them promtly hit 3 bogies (and no birdies) for the rest of the 3rd round. He is now out to 10/1.... (lowest price matched even money!)

ALtough I won the same money last week on the cricket, I am much prouder with this effort.

Saturday, August 26, 2006

Update after 8 months: 23.9 % profit

Position after 8 months

Points staked on settled bets = 534
Points returned on settled bets= 662
Profit on settled bets = 23.9 %

Points staked on unsettled bets = 56.5

Still unhappy that Romero manged to fisnsh 8th in the Open when a top 7 finish would have given me a 100/1 payout. (he was 3rd with 1/2 round to go), but England winning was an unexpectd bonus in the Test cricket.

Canavoro not winning player of the World Cup tournament at 6-1 was also a sickener - if the poll hadbeen made at the end of the match he woudl have been a certainty rather than losing by 1%.
Dan Clarke (mechnaical problems) when a close 2nd (E.W 50-1) was also diasappointing.

Antepost wise, things are looking great with the following bets looking in with good chanes of a payout

- Crawley - Top batsman (Select 12) - 12-1 (4pts) - probably am approx. 1-2 chance now
- Ferrari - Top F1 Constructor - 6-1 (10pts) - 1-2 chance now
- Hornish - Indy Racing winner - 9-2 (10pts) - probably an even money chance now... has been as short as 1-8 :( until a DNF 2 races ago with a meachnical problem. Castroneves is a big danger.

Come on Davis Love III this weekend!

Andy Murray - US Open - 2 pst win - 50-1 Betfair

I am suprised to see Andy Murray is availible at 50-1 ofor the US OPen. If first 2 rounds are straight forward which will put him into a last 16 clash with (potentially) Gonzalez.

A new coach could enable Murray to make that final step up....

... If I was betting to smaller stakes, I'd back at who are refunding your stake if your player goes out to the 2 favs. in the Mens/Womens tournaments. I'm tempted to back their 1st round opponents (as this is a 'bet to nothing'), however I don't like the phrase 'T & C's apply'.. anyone wan't to contact Boylesports for an answer?

Indy Racing - 4pts Win - Scott Dixon - Infineon Raceway

Scott Dixon was a great price at 15-2 for the race this weekend - he should have been a approx 5-2 chance. I've ahd 4pst win. This is a 'Road Race' whch therefore favours Castroneves and Dixon.

Bet365 priced this race up as a conventional Oval race, I major mistake. Once the books re-open tomorrow (Sunday) morning (after final qualifying), I suspect you will still be able to get approx. 5-1 on Dixon, whih would still be a good price.

I would stay away form Hornish and Wheldon at short prices as they are unsuited by these types of tracks. I'd be suprised if either of tehse 2 favourites win.

Golf Trading Update - WGC Bridgestone - 2pts win Davis Love - 60/1 Betfair

In running in the 2nd round last night, I placed a 2pot win bet on Davis Love at 60/1. He is now approx 14/1.

Thiungs coudl have been a lot better if DAvis Love has sunk one of the 2 puts on wither 17 or 18 or Tiger had not had such a miraculous bogey on 18 via a free drop.

I can;t see Davis Love winning, but a good round today coudl mean that I coudl layoff at 2-1.... more lickly Tgetr if will go 5 clear and I will have done my money again!

Golf Trading Update - Sudnay 20th August - PGA

I maanged to lose 2 pst backing David Toms at 33-1 for PGA. I need to learn to stoip backing against Tiger Woods in Majors....

Finally a bit of luck! Engalnd to beat Pakistan 2pts 25-1

Just before tea last Sunday, I had 2pts on Betfair at 25-1 on an England victory. I'd like to say this was a piece of inspired gambling, where I'd realised the possibility that the match might be voided.

In reality, it was just me thinking that the Engladn win shoudl be an approx. 12/1 -14/1 chance. (They coudl have set Pakistan a total of approx 150-175 at 12 midday the next day).

The best bet woull have been 12-1 on England as the Pakistan players stayed in the dressing room... wasn't alive enough to this market change. Anyhow, made for an interesting Sunday evening as rumours flew around....

Racing Update - Newbury - 19/08/06

I had 3 bets (1pt each) at Newbury last weekend, fortunately 1 winner @ 20-1 (Jamison Gold, 2.10 Newbury). This was a great price has he had been badly drawn at Acost previously and, when the rain came down, had the ground he needed.

Apologies for the laste posting of the result, work has been very busy...

Thursday, August 24, 2006

Newcastle v Ventspils - Ventspils to win (28-1) Betfair.

28-1 is simply to big on ... I'm having 1 pt on a shock outcome... never underestimate the capacity for Newcastle to self destruct.

Saturday, August 19, 2006

Newbury 3.10 - 33-1 - 2pts Win - Self Defense

I believe Self Defense is overpriced at 33-1 in this 5 runner race... the horse is only slightly below the standard of the other 4 horses in the race. With soft ground and a (potentially) tactical race, I'm having 2pts win.

Watford to make flying start in August.

Paddypower are outsanding in the number of markets they have on the Premiership.

I have already had 4pts on Kitson (Reading) at 100-1 to be the first Premiership goalscorer to 10 goals (now a 50-1 chance.)

They have now opened up prices on leading Premiership Goalscorer and Team at the end of August.

Leading Premierhip Team at End of August.

I think they have priced these up wrong as they have not factored in that Liverpool and Arsenal have had one of their games cancelled (due to Champions League) and therefore 4 premiership teams will only play 2 rather than 3 games. This makes these 4 teams very unlikely to be leading the Premiership at the end of August.

I thik you shoudl try to back a team who play 2 /3 of there games at home.

A very good case can be made for Tottenham (8-1) who are the only side not to play one of the 'Big 4'. However, at odds of 125-1 I 'm backing Watford (2 pts). Their games are

Everton v Watford
Watford v West Ham
Watford v Man Utd

If they win there first 2 games, there will be opportunities for laying off.

Top Premiership Goalscorer at End of August

This may be won (or joint won) with as few as 2 goals. For this reason I'm backing Marlon King (Watford) E/W at 50-1 (2pts E/W).

3.30 Ripon - Josh 1pt win 20-1 Corals

I am fairly confident that the winner of thsi race will come from a high draw. Josh has dropped signficantly in teh handicap and can poick up this prize... I woudl have had more than 1pt, but this was the max bet that Coirals woudl allow at there prices from 10-10.15 a.m.

He is suited by course, distance and the ground andI think will probably start around a 10-1 chance. I'm also considering a combination bet on high drawn horses....

Tennis - Andy Murray to win US Open - 40-1 - 0.5 pts - are going a standout 40-1 on Andyt Murray to win the US Open. With a new trainer, this outstanding (progressive) prospect has a real chance of landing this title.

A general 16-1/20-1 chance, I've had 1/2 pt @ 40-1 at I don't expect it to last long...(P.S. I tried to have more, but this was their max. bet :( )

Sunday, August 13, 2006

Snooker - Northern Island Trophy - 1pt Fu 66-1, 1pt Selby 50-1

I belive by far the easiest draw is the first quarter. The favoured players in this draw are Dott and Ebdon, but I don't fancy either of this players.

Dott is likley to underform under the pressure of being World Champion and Ebdon always reserves his best for the World Chamiopnship.

For this reason, I am backing Fu and Selby from this 1/4 to win outright. I think that is more than likley that one of these guys will make the semi-finals.

Fu has become revitalised after moving back to Terry Griifiths as a coach. He has since reached the World Semi Finals when he narrowly lost 17-16 to Ebdon.

Selby knocked out Higgin in the World Championship before losing to an inspired Mark Williams - this is great form.

Both are more than fair outright prices at 50/1 and 66/1.

Thursday, August 10, 2006

FK Ventspils v Newcastle - 1st Goalscorer - 40/1 Bet365 - 1pt

I think Newcastle are quite weak at the back... so I'm having 1pt on the FK Ventspils defender Ndeki to open the scoring at 40-1 with Bet365. He has a strong goals/games ration for a central defender.

Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Alonso 1st Goalscorer - 20-1 Corals. Liverrpool v Maccabi Haifa - 2pts

The exact tem formation is unclear at present, however Alonso is likely to make the starting lineup. Against a wek opposition, irrespective of the tactical makeup, 20-1 is a great price. I'm having 2pts on this outcome.

Sunday, August 06, 2006

Kitson (Reading) - 1st Premiership player to 10 goals - PaddyPowe - 100-1

I believe Coppell will continue with his attacking style of football at REading. If this is the case, Kitson (penalty taker) has a chance of being teh fist to 10 goals.

The lead attacker for promoted clubs have a reasonable record in the Premiership. It is difficult to see him being ther at the end of the season, but could ht 10 after approx 20 games - he has an execlllent goals/games record in the Championship last year.

4pst Win - Michael Schumacher - 100-1 - Quickest Official time.

I placed this bet in running during qualifying... however, I've paid the price of a losing bet by not reading the rules carefully enough. The fastest offical time included the 2s penalty. Ah well, a lesson learnt.

Saturday, August 05, 2006

Horse Racing - Goodwood (Saturday)/Newbury (Sunday)

Nassau Stakes

Ouija Board is a worthry favourite. However, with a small field, the race may not be run to suit and is in, my view, too short at I'm having 2pts on Race for the Stars (16-1) to spring a surpise. He is well respected by Keiron Fallon, and has been working well. Stepping up in trip in 1m 2f, he is taken to make amends for is unlucky run in the .

Stewards Cup

I like the chances of 'Tax Free' and 'Bentong', but I'm palcing 1pt on 9-y-o Continent (50-1) from the sprint specialist Dandy Nicholls. He will need to return to his previous form to win this.... a little bit of rain would help!

Update : an afternoon at Newbury leaves me 3 pts down... just keeping my records update.

Big Brother Trading - Update

I think there is a huge amount of uncertainty now.

- Who will the pucblic vote in to the House Next Door?
- Who will the main flatmates choose to let in to the main house? Do they nknow whoever they bring back in can still win it? What will influence their decisions? Who they liked? WHo they thnk will challenge then?
- ....and then they got to bet Pete!

C4 look like thaey want Nikki back, but they way they have setup teh 2 sets of voting will mean they can't guarantee this.

I've now layed off at approx 12/1 on Nicky for 14 points (I think that is a very poor price to back). With the large amount of uncertainty, I've spread these points on the following:

Mikey - 6 points (250/1)
Leah - 1 point (500/1)
Grace - 1 point (400/1)

In summary, I''m now level on all outcomes other than Mikey, Nikki, Leah, Grace and 'Any Other' - up significanly on all of these....

Friday, August 04, 2006

Nikki - 2pts Win - Big Brother - 150/1 (Betfair)

Thre is a strong rumour that Nikki will be sent back in the Big Brother house tonight. I'm not sure whether she will be allowed to win (in the one previous example the re-entrant wasn't) but 150/1 gives me a good trading opportunity.

Thursday, August 03, 2006

Geordieland - 4pts Win - Tote Ebor -16-1

I was very impressed with Geordieland's run in the Goodwood Cup today. Yates was a star but 2nd placed Geordieland was welll clear of the 3rd placed horse. A likely starter in the Tote Ebor (although not certain) he will run off a favourable rating.

If he makes the day, I suspect that he will turn up as a 5-1/6-1 chance.... and I thnk he will win it.