IRL - Grand Prix of Sonoma - Preview - 8:30 Sunday

As per my early post this week, I am convinced that (still) the bookies have priced this market wrong. For a road race course, the most likely winners are Castroneves and Dixon.

I have 4pts win on Dixon at 15/2... he is now approx 7/2. He is on pole and should be 2/1 chance. I have now placed a cover bet on Castroneves (1pt, 11/2 - should be a 5/2 chance) and Andretti (0.5pts, 12/1).

I have Hornish for the championship, but have a strong feeeling he probably needs to finish within 4-5 places of Castroneves (which could be tricky).

N.B. Hornish and Wheldon are terrible prices at the availible odds.

Post Race Update: I wish Betfair traded on this race....Dixon was 0.5 s quicker than the rest of the field and at 2/3 distance, he was trading at 1/8 at Stan James (I'd have laid at 1.2). A problematic pitstop under yellow put him far back in the field.

At least my cover bet on Andretti returned my stakes. In addition, in most scenarios, Hornish now just need to beat Castroneves for my 10 pt title bet on Hornish to come in... I'd make Hornish a 4/6 shot now (I'm on a 9/2)