Monday, January 30, 2006

Exeter v Accrington - First/Last Goalscorer - Cavanagh

Peter Cavanagh (Accrington Stanley) is great value @ 28-1 (Stan James) for first/last goalscorer. He has scored 4 goals (3 penalties) from 12 starts and should be a lot shorter price.

I'm having 1pt on first and last goalscorer.

(Centre Half Robbie Williams will probably offer him protection).

Malta Cup Snooker - Hawkins @ 25-1 - 2pts E/W

The top half of the draw for this ournament looks much the strongest. Therefore, there is E/W value to be had the the bottom half of the draw.

The three players I like the look of at the current prices are Ken Doherty, Peter Ebdon and Brian Hawkins, all @ 25-1. As Doherty and Ebdon play each other in the 2nd round, I'm backing Brian Hawkins.

Sunday, January 29, 2006

Portsmouth v Liverpool - First/Last Goalscorer Alonso, Cissoko 1st Booking

With Liverpool strong favourites, it bakes sense to look to a Liverpool player for first/last goalscorer. I'm backing Alonso @ 20/1 (Corals) for both, 1pt each.

As regards first booking, I've selected Cissoko. He has a dreadful discplinary record and consqeuntely I've backed him (2pts) at 9-1 (Paddy Power).

Saturday, January 28, 2006

Bolton v Arsenal - Arsenal to Win, Sendoros/Campbell to score first/last

When I looked at this match earlier this week, I anticpated that Bolton would 5-2. However Bolton are now favourites, and I think the markets have overreacted. Sure Arsenal won't have their strongest team and have been weak away from home this season, but 2-1 (Betfair) is an insult.

I'm having 10 pts on Arsenal @ 2-1

Regarding first/last goalscorer, I'm backing both Senderos and Campbell for both outcomes. You can get 33-1 on all of these 4 bets at Paddypower with a refund if Arsenal concede a penalty, red card or own goal. (4 pts staked in total).

Both players hyave scored 2 goals this season, and can come into play at corners.

Cheltenham v Newcastle - 1st Goalscorer - Solano, N'Zogbia - 2pts on each

Newcastle are strong favourites to beat Chelteham, but are not great value at 1-2.

Instead, I am backing 2 Newcastle players for 1st Goal scorer (so that will be at least one loser then!). The 2 are Solano and N'Zogbia (I am having 2pts win on each). Both are clearly top priced at Stan James - Solano (14-1, a short as 13-2!) and N'Zogbia (16-1, as short as 9-1).

Both have scored 2 goals this season from 12 appearances.

Update: N'Zogbia was a Non-Runner, so stakes returned.

Tuesday, January 24, 2006

Mighty Man - World Hurdle - 2pts @ 14-1

Might Man runs at the Cheltanham Cleeve Hurdle on Saturday... a good performance will ensure he appears in World Hurdle at a probable SP of approx. 7-1. His last run over 2 1/2 miles showed his liking for Cheltenham, and I am confident he will stay the 3m for the World Hurdle (stayed on on his prior outing, also at Cheltenham).

Ladbrokes go a standout 14-1, I'm having 2pts @ 14-1.

Sunday, January 22, 2006

Haas - 40/1 - 1 pt win - Australian Men's Championship

With the demise of Hewitt and Roddick, Federer is now as short as 1/5. I am taking a chance on Haas who is due to meet him in the next round. Haas won in 3 sets in their last meeting, and has a chance against Federer.

Of course Federer is the most likely winner, but if Haas beats Federer he would be amongst the favovourites for the tournament.

Consequently, I'm having 1pt win on Haas @ 40-1.

Liverpool v Man Utd. , 1st Goalscorer & 1st Booking Markets

1st Goal Scorer Market:

I think there are 2 strong possibilities in this market, Van Nistelrooy (5-1) and Gerrard (11-1). They are the leading scorers (and penalty takers) for their respective clubs and are both value.

With Mike Riley in charge, a Man Utd. penalty is a live chance increasing Van Nistelrooy's chance of scoring. However, the 'Riley factor' is countered by the strength of Liverpool's defence, making a goals in open play from Man Utd (including Van Nisterooy) less likely.

A case can be made for Man Utd to score a penalty at any time (6-1, Totesport).

I've settled on 2 pts on Gerarrd for First Goalscorer (11-1), but I will be kicking myself when Van Nistlerooy scores first.

1st Booking Market

There is a wide diversity of opinion on this market (usually a good sign for the punter!).

The bets I am having are:

Van Nistlerooy - 22-1 (Paddy Power, 2pts)
Fletcher - 33-1 (Totesport, 2pts)

Both have a relatively high bookings/match ratio and should be approximately half their odds. Others with high ratios that I considered were Sissoko (9-1, Totesport) and Crouch (18-1, Totesport). N.B Totesport offer E/W.

Saturday, January 21, 2006

Position after 4 Weeks

Position after 4 weeks:
Points staked on settled bets = 67
Points returned on settled bets= 105

Profit on settled bets = 56.5 %

40% is the rate of return I'm aiming for (and I think is reasonably achievable - this is what I (appoximatley) achieved last year), so it is good to be ahead of schedule after the first month.

Points staked on unsettled bets = 23.5

These antepost bets are looking good.. all are shorter prices than when I placed the bets. I am particularly keen on the OOM bet on Royal Shaekspeare @ 12-1... now leading, into 7-2.

Lawrence (West Brom v Sunderland) - First/Last Goal Scorer @ 20-1

I think Sunderland have a great chance against West Brom tonight. I strongly considered 4-1 on Sunderland but instead have backed Liam Lawrence for first/last goal scorer (1pt on each).

He has scored 3 goals this season in the Premiership from 10 appearances (7 as sub!) and is good value @ 20-1 with (as short as 10-1 elesewhere). I put him in as an approx 12-1 chance.

Ebony Light - Peter Marsh/2.10 Haydock

With doubts about a signficnat no. of the partcipants, I am backing E/W Ebony Light.

He has quite a bit to find on raw form (a long way in the 'Long Handicap'), but I have seen worse bets.... I'm having 1 pt E/W @ 40-1.

Wednesday, January 18, 2006

Additional Tennis Bet - James Blake - 2pts E/W

Having missed the 50-1 pre-tournament, I though I'd be unable to back James Blake for the Australian Mens Tennis Championship.

However, Totesport in their genoristy have (incorrectly?) pushed out James Blake to 50-1. Therfore, I've had 2pts E/W @ 50-1... bringing my total staked in this tournament to 8 pts.

Given all my 3 bets are in the same 1/4, I'm hoping to have a semi-finalist (at least!). The only real danger in the 1/4 is Nalbandian.

Chletenham Champion Hurdle - Macs Joy E/W

With Jessica Harrington once again back in the Winners Enclosure, I've had 2pts E/Won Macs Joy for the Champion Hurdle.

I think he is of a similar standard to Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace, but a much longer price. I've manged to get 28/1 but there is still plenty of 20/1 availible. I think he probably should be an approx 12-1 chance.

A good showing in the AIG Irish Champion Hurdle will see his price significantly contract.

Sunday, January 15, 2006

Totesport Classic Chase - Sir Rembrandt - 2pts win

Joaaci is a poor favourite at 9-4 a very short price gievn what he has achieved. Much beeter prices are the 6-1 on Eurotrek and the 12-1 in Sir Rembrandt.

Eurotrek is a lighlt raced (=injury prone) horse who, following an easy win at Newbury has been rasied 12lb. However, he has a lot of scope and will be suited by the trip/ground so is reluctantly passed over.

Instead, I have sided with Sir Rembrandt. I was impressed with his run in the Welsh National (before he fell!) but if he completes the course, he has a live chance of a 4lb lower weight. Carrying a large weight on this ground is a worry (hasn;t been done recently) but he stays well on soft ground. 2 places in the Gold Cup means he might just have the class to win this race.

Australian Women's Open - Pierce @ 16-1

With injury worries with the favourite Clijsters, there is value to be had.

The top 1/4 likely likley to see a Henin-Hardenne v Davenport clash. I believe it is likely that the winner will come from this match, and I very nearly backed JH-H outright at 3-1.

However, to take advantage of the injury worries for Clijsters, I've backed Pierce @ 16-1 with Paddy Power. She had a graet latter half of 2005 and, if Clijsters falters will probably have face Mauresmo in the semi finals with a JHH-Pierce final a strong possibility.

Australin Men's Open - Ancic @ 100-1 (Win) , Nieminen @ 150-1 (E/W)

I think that Federer is an opposable favourite at 1-2. I was tempted by a 'scattegun' approach backing a selction of players E/W at big prices in the opposite 1/2 of the draw from Federer, but I have decided the best approach would be just to select one.

The players on my shortlist (and best prices) were:

Roddick - 10-1 (4th 1/4)
Nalbandian - 16-1 (3rd 1/4)
Blake - 28-1 (3rd 1/4)
Ancic - 100-1 (3rd 1/4)
Nieminen - 150-1 (3rd 1/4)

As you can see, the issue I was faced is that most of the players I liked the look of were in the 3rd quarter.

Blake is scheduled to meet the winner of a Nalbandian/Nieminen clash in the 1/4 finals ... I just don't want to back Blake or Nalbandian E/W at prices < 33-1 given they are scheduled against each other so early.

Therefore my selections were

1. Ancic - 2pt win @ 100-1 Ancic (Centrebet). I'd would have like to have gone E/W but the highest price that allowed this was 50-1

2. Nieminen - 1 pt E/W @ 150-1 (generally availible).

Saturday, January 14, 2006

Maguire (9-1) / McCulloch (80-1) for Masters Glory!

I think the vaule in the Masters comes from opposing O'Sullivan. If O'Sullivan is 'on his game' he coudl easily win this, but I think he is there to be taken on, given the state of his mind.

For that reason, I am concentrating on players in the top half of the draw (i.e the same half as O'Sullivan). The two I am backing are:

Maguire - 5pts Win @ 9-1
McCulloch - 2 pts E/W @ 80-1

Maguire was unlucky to meet Davis when Davis played some great snooker in the last tournamen (and still only lost 9-8). If he had won that game he would have certainly beaten an off form Hendry in the Semi-Final.

Th dream scenario is for a Maguire/McCulloch Semi-Final.

Wednesday, January 11, 2006

Sony Open : Howell (25/1), Lehman (80/1)

Both of these golfers go well early in the season, especially on this course where G.I.R will be important (rather than putting)

I think winning may be difficult for Howell or Lehman, but I expect both to put on strong shows - i.e. 10 finishes from both.

I'm having 1 pts E.W. on both of them at (the generally availible) 25/1 and 80/1.

Sunday, January 08, 2006

Position after 2 weeks:

Points staked on settled bets = 38
Points returned on settled bets= 53
% profit on settled bets = 39.5 %

40% is the rate of return I'm aiming for (and I think is reasonably achievable - this is what I (appoximatley) achieved last year).

Points staked on unsettled bets = 19.5

These antepost bets are looking good.. all are shorter prices than when I placed the bets.

Alonso - First/Last Goal scorer - 20-1

With Liverpool hevay favouites (Livepool v Luton) , its makes sense to concentrate on a Liverpool player for first/last goalscorer bets. Coral go a standout 20-1 on Alonso, I'm having 1pt on first goalscorer and 1pt on last goal scorer.

Sheff. Utd v Colchester - Colchester to win - 4pts @ 6-1

With their minds on promotion, Neil Warnock is planning to field a weakend Sheff Utd team. Colchester are 4th in League 1 and have better than a 6-1 chance of winning.

I'm having 4pt @ the generally availible 6-1.

P.S. As I placed this comment after the event, I've posted my Betfair account above... oh ye of little faith!

(It also has the loser (Fenix) on the acount that I posted after the event as well).

Davies (Aston Villa) First/Last Goal Scorer 18-1

Stan James are going a standout 18-1 on Davies for first/last goalscorer... I think he should be a 12-1 chance (at most), the top price he is at other bookmakers.

I having 1 pt on each outcome (2pts in total)

Order of Merit - Royal Shakespeare - 12-1 E/W

An entry to record my 2 pts E/W placed at Stan James @ 12-1 for the Order of Merit. The price has gone (since Inglis Drever's withdrawl), but I don't weant to miss this bet when I am compiling my profit/loss.

Sandown 3.10 Ladbrokes Hurdle - Fenix

I think the course, ground and trip will be ideal for Fenix in the Ladbroke Hurdle. Consequently, I'm having 2 pt. win @ 16-1.

Tuesday, January 03, 2006

Arsenal v Man Utd - 1st Booking Market

1st Booking is a market tha bookmakers struggle to get right. I'm not sure why as the statistics for this are all widely availible.

I'm placing 2pts on Ronaldo (18-1) and 2pts on Van Nistlerooy (18-1), both for 1st Booking at Paddy Power. Both of these players should be approximately 10-1 (which they are at other bookmakers) as they have some of the highest card/game ratios.

Monday, January 02, 2006

Highest No. of 180s - Taylor v Manley - PDC final

Phil 'The Power' Taylor is most likely to score the highest no. of 180s in the final, but 1-7 looks very short to me. I am placing a 3pt bet on Peter Manley to have a higher no of 180s at 7-1 (Stan James).

2pt E/W Cornish Rebel - Cheltenham Gold Cup - 33-1

With Kicking King's withdrawl, I expected Cornish Rebel to be approx 16-1. Well he is (in several places) but Ladbrokes are going a stand out 33-1. A great E/W bet IMHO - I'm adding this to my 1pt E/W bet on One Knight at 40-1.

2pt E/W Cornish Rebel - Cheltenham Gold Cup

Tennis - Qatar Open - Andreev E/W - 40-1

The prices for the Qatar Open (starts at 12:30 today) have, correctly, Rodger Feder as strong favourite (1-3). His 81-4 record is outstanding and he is a great player on the hard courts (such as in Qatar).

However, this actually provides betting opportunities by backing players E/W (1/3 odds, 1-2) in the opposite (bottom) half of the draw. The bottom half is relatively open - Davydenko (8-1) and Grosjean (18-1) are perfectly possible winners of this 1/2. However, and I'm going for Andreev @ 40-1 E/W (Ladbrokes).

The win portion of the bet isn't dead - it is not impossible for Gasquet to beat Federer in the Semi Final in the top 1/2 of the draw.

I'm having 2pts E/W on Andreev.

Sunday, January 01, 2006

Probably the best bet I've seen for 10 years!

Dan Wheldon, under 5 wins in Indy Racing 2006 - Bet365 - 7/4

This should probably be a 1-5 chance, and will be able to be covered by a bet on Dan Wheldon for the Championship.

If Bet365 would take a decent bet, I would have 10 pts max bet on this.... I seriously thought about readjusting by betting scale just for this bet! As it is I've been limitited to a 5pts bet. Sob...

1st Goal Scorer - Hearts v Celtic - Skacel

With 14 league goals, Skacel is the clear top goalscorer for Heart. Hearts are (slight) outsiders in this match, so I would expect him to be approx 4-1/5-1 for 1st Goalscorer. The 9-1 at Bet365 is a more than fair price, I'm having 2pt on this.