Monday, January 02, 2006

Highest No. of 180s - Taylor v Manley - PDC final

Phil 'The Power' Taylor is most likely to score the highest no. of 180s in the final, but 1-7 looks very short to me. I am placing a 3pt bet on Peter Manley to have a higher no of 180s at 7-1 (Stan James).
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5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Whilst this looks a reasonable bet I am concerned that you have modelled based on a handicap of 4 180's - having looked at the betting it appears to be 5 - does this change the stats? By how much?

Rob Legend

2:59 pm
Anonymous said...

Not sure about this one Chris (or your spelling). 3 points seems an awful lot when 5 is your max. Cannot personally see Manley outscoring Taylor on the 180's whatsoever. Double figures would not have tempted me in. Can actually see him covering the 5 start on Sid James 180's handicap. Best of luck with it anyway.
One bet that may be of interest to you is one that Stan James seems determined to lay - he's been biggest price for the past month or so.
It's Royal Shakespeare for the Order of Merit. Now Monkerhostin holds a a serious chance in the Gold Cup, I can't see Hobbs running it all over the place before the festival to pick up points. That goes the same for the others at the head of the betting. That's certainly not going to worry Gollings as you can't really see his horse winning at the festival. With there being a potential 250k on the table, this will surely be their goal.
Can see it turning up in all of the Champion Hurdle trials, where there's got to be some decent sized place points up for grabs at worst. If the ground stays good, and the Irish stay away, could even win one.
Can't see it out the 3 places (assuming it doesn't get injured). Sid goes 12/1. Best price elsewhere is 7's.
Well worth adding to the McCoy bet you were discussing on the Betfair forum the other day.

7:30 pm
christrinder said...

Rob,

The modelling was done on an expected outcome of 10-6 to Taylor (taken from Sporting Index's spreads).

Ropes,

RE: the stake, 5 was my original max, but I have upped this to 10pts in the 1st week to give me a greater range.

Anyhow, your reading of the darts match was much better than mine..

RE: Royal Shakespeare for the OoM, ... I'll do some analysis and post a more detailed response. Thanks for the tip.

P.S I've fixed the spelling (well, at least some of it!)

10:01 pm
Anonymous said...

Just missed the 12/1 on Royal Shakespeare at SJ, now 5/1. I need to keep a closer eye on your blogger Mr T! Rich.

4:38 pm
christrinder said...

I managed to get the 12-1 (2pts E/W), I'll add this to my staking plan. Now 5-1!

7:42 pm

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