1st Goal Scorer Market:
I think there are 2 strong possibilities in this market, Van Nistelrooy (5-1) and Gerrard (11-1). They are the leading scorers (and penalty takers) for their respective clubs and are both value.
With Mike Riley in charge, a Man Utd. penalty is a live chance increasing Van Nistelrooy's chance of scoring. However, the 'Riley factor' is countered by the strength of Liverpool's defence, making a goals in open play from Man Utd (including Van Nisterooy) less likely.
A case can be made for Man Utd to score a penalty at any time (6-1, Totesport).
I've settled on 2 pts on Gerarrd for First Goalscorer (11-1), but I will be kicking myself when Van Nistlerooy scores first.
1st Booking Market
There is a wide diversity of opinion on this market (usually a good sign for the punter!).
The bets I am having are:
Van Nistlerooy - 22-1 (Paddy Power, 2pts)
Fletcher - 33-1 (Totesport, 2pts)
Both have a relatively high bookings/match ratio and should be approximately half their odds. Others with high ratios that I considered were Sissoko (9-1, Totesport) and Crouch (18-1, Totesport). N.B Totesport offer E/W.
3 comments:
Hmmm - why those two and not Sissoko? I would have to question whether this is just a case of big odds attracting rather than pure logic and analysis?
I would also suggest the same of Gerrard. I have placed a bet of Van Nis at VC - although not top priced they are 9-2, you get double if he scores twice and triple for three times
Furthermore, I have looked at the 1st booking market in the Chel game and Joe Cole is a standout at 14-1. He should be favourite
Rob,
The only reason why I haven't also backed Sissoko (1st Card) and Van Nistelrooy (1st Goal) is that I'm not keen on having too many runners in an event.
I ususlly like only having one runner at short odds (i.e. <= 12-1) or one/two at longer odds (i.e. > 12-1).
If I think a short priced runner and longer priced runner are both equally good value, I normally pick the longer priced runner.
I'm not sure if all the above is logical.... I'll need to thnk about that one!
Let me know your thoughts.
RE: Joe Cole, I''m getting on @ 14-1, thanks for the analysis. - you'll see the bet above!
Oops, I thiought it was a 3 p.m. kick off! Oh well, missed putting on the Joe Cole bet.
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