Sunday, September 30, 2007

2007 Q3 and Overall Results

I've had a good Q3 2007, whcih means that my overall profitability is back on course for a ROI of approx 40%.

If anyone wants a copy of the full .xls, send send me an email.

Lock in Hamilton F1 Championship Profits.

Having backed Hamilton at 25-1 for the F1 Championship, I'm not about to see my profits disappear with a freak result at China and/or Brazil. I'm hence laying Hamilton at 1.1 on Betfair.... he possibly should be a slightly shorter price (maybe 1.07/1.08) bit I am happy to pay a small premium to lock in these profits.

(My intial bet 9 months ago on Hamilton for the F1 Championship is linked below!)

Thursday, September 27, 2007

Next London Mayor - market mayhem

There are signficnat discrpancise in this market. Following Johnson's slection (which was a foregone conclusion!), the best prices availible at 8.15 p.m. today (Thursday) are:

Livingstone (Skybet) 4/5
Johnson (Bluesq) 2/1
Paddick (Coral) 25/1

I find this market very hard to call. With an over-round book of 93%, there has to be value, I'm just not sure where! (Comments welcome). Of course, I could arb but with the stakes I can get on, I woudn't win a great amount. However, anyone who has an unrestriced account (*unlike me :) ) could have substantial three figure amounts on the 2 front runners making a tidy profit.

Next Premiership Manager to leave.

I've taken a combined approach to this market:

1. I've backed Grant to be the next Prem. Manager to leave at 14-1 at Skybet. Any Manager who's nickname is BBC ('Bibs, Balls and Cones') can't have the highest reputation. If Chelses start poorly, he could be let go when Euro Qualfication finishes in Nov 08. If this happens, he could be the next Prem. Manager to leave. He doesn't even have a contract.

I've 1pt at 14-1 on Grant to go first.

2. I've laid Jol and Lee on Betfair, both at 2.02 (1.02-1). This market is a 'rumour based' market and hence has large volatility. I've had 4pts matched on both of these individuals at what I consider are short prices.

Thursday, September 20, 2007

Chelsea Specials - Chelsea Premier League Position on Dec 31st 2007

Victor Chandler have opened a market on this:

First 3/1
Second 2/1
Third 2/1
Fourth 5/1
Any Other 10/1

I think "Any Other" might be a bt of value at 10/1. In the short term I think Avram Grant might get off to a poor start... just a hunch really, but sometimes you have go with them.

Avram Grant has not the strongest managerial record... mainly being a "Big Fish" in a "Small Pond" i.e. Israel. He is however well respected (e.g by Harry Redknapp), but that is different to actually achieveing something. With the transfer window closed, he'll have to work with Mourinho's squad which may not be the players he can work with effectively.

I'm having 4pts on "Any Other".

Update from Victor Chandler, midday Friday:

VC Bet report a mini gamble on Chelsea to be out of the top four in the Premier League at the end of this year, after taking cash at 10/1 overnight.

"It was a decent price and we weren’t surprised that the public have latched on to it," said football compiler Thomas Balbuena.

"When the dust settled, people began to look at Avram Grant and the reaction of the players, and they feel Chelsea could well struggle. We’ve had to cut the price to 5/1, but we still might get more cash at that price."

Sunday, September 16, 2007

Tour Championship - short priced Woods gives place value.

The Learderboard going into the final round of the Tour Championship is as follows:

Tiger Woods -19
Mark Calcavecchia -16
Sergio Garcia -14
Zach Johnson -13
Hunter Mahan -12

Woods is the clear favourite, howveer this gives the possibility of some E/W value due to a lopsided book. I'm suprised to see Coral offering 1/3 odds 1,2 (they are the only bookmaker offering E/W prices). Their prices for these runners are:

Tiger Woods 1/20
Mark Calcavecchia 14/1
Sergio Garcia 20/1
Zach Johnson 50/1
Hunter Mahan 80/1

If you do the maths, E/W bets on all of the runners (other than Woods!) should be profitable. I've had 2pts E/W on Calcavecchia at 14/1 - I think the other will struggle to come back from more than 3 shots in the unlikely event of a poor Woods round.

Sunday, September 09, 2007

IRL - Peak Antifreeze 300 - Hornish/Wheldon to star.

There are 3 drivers in with a chance of the championship, Franchitti, Dixon and (quite a way back) Kannan. I think there are two great bets on this market at Stan James:

Sam Hornish - 18/1 - 4pts E/W
Dan Whledon - 25/1 - 4pts E/W

Franchitti and Dixon will be concentrating on finishing in front of each other, with Kannan focussing on helping Franchitti(they drive for the same team).

Castroneves has a chance, but is too short a price compared to his team mate Hornish. Hornish starts one place in froint of him on the grid (2nd!) and cannot be missed at 18/1. He wil be trying his utmost to win this race as it is his last race before he leaves for Nascar. Unlike recent races, this is an oval rather than a road course and hence will be to his liking.

Staring form 5th on teh grid, Wheldon will be looking to support teammate Dixon. However, the best way will be to do this from the front. He is back on his favoured oval circuit and will be keen to make up for a disappointing seam. He is not to be missed at 25/1.

Update: Hornish is now 15/2 and Wheldon is now 6/1!

Thursday, September 06, 2007

Who is Macca Dating? Back his ex-wife at 250-1 to be the next.

Stranger things have happened.... I can see them getting back togther again (well, they have a child in common). You'd think all the hurt they'd gone throught would rule this out... but maybe absence will make the heart grow stronger.

I'm having 0.5 pts at Paddy Power's generous 250-1.