Sunday, September 16, 2007

Tour Championship - short priced Woods gives place value.

The Learderboard going into the final round of the Tour Championship is as follows:

Tiger Woods -19
Mark Calcavecchia -16
Sergio Garcia -14
Zach Johnson -13
Hunter Mahan -12

Woods is the clear favourite, howveer this gives the possibility of some E/W value due to a lopsided book. I'm suprised to see Coral offering 1/3 odds 1,2 (they are the only bookmaker offering E/W prices). Their prices for these runners are:

Tiger Woods 1/20
Mark Calcavecchia 14/1
Sergio Garcia 20/1
Zach Johnson 50/1
Hunter Mahan 80/1

If you do the maths, E/W bets on all of the runners (other than Woods!) should be profitable. I've had 2pts E/W on Calcavecchia at 14/1 - I think the other will struggle to come back from more than 3 shots in the unlikely event of a poor Woods round.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

good pick.

Prekladatel