Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Man Utd. v Everton - Everton to win 14/1 (Betfair) - 2pts

I don't nortmally back in football matches, but on a couple of occasions recenetly I've missed some real value bets (typically big 'drifters' pre-match on Betfair).

I believe this is the same situation tonight in the Man Utd v Everton game. Man Utd. are playing a weakend team. Of course, Everton are also missing some key plaayers but at 14/1 they have to be chanced (9/1 at conventional bookmakers).

Sunday, November 19, 2006

2.35 Becher Chase - Dunbrody Millar - 2pts win - 18-1

I have the utmost respect for Clan Royal, but I think at 18-1 Dunbrody Millar is a great price. His 4th in the Topham last year (over a too short trip) shows his liking for these (special) National fences. He is only 4lbs higher than when winning the Agfa Diamond Chase, and his trainer Peter Bowen is currently in form. Dunbroody Millar's form talied off at the back end of last year, but he will and will benefit from a recent run.

NFL - Dallas v Indianapolis - 1pt 40-1 Romo First Touchdown.

Indianapolis are susceptible to touchdowns form Quarterbacks (have conceded 3 this year). Although he is yet to score a touchdown this year, Romo (Dallas QB) is probably overpriced at 40-1 to score the first TD. I'm having 1pt at 40-1 (Stan James).

N.B. The last 1st TD bet I had was on the Superbowl final... and I picked the wrong QB (the other scored first!)

Giuliani - Next President of USA - 2008 - 4pts 16-1 - William Hill

It is early days (just after Mid Terms), but the graphic above from shows that each party as 2 main candidates. I've already backed Obama at 8/1 for Democratic Candisate and 16/1 for President. I'm adding to this 4pts at 16/1 (William Hill) on Giuliani - he is as short as 11/2 at . He is not certainty to run, but at least he has submitted his Presidential nominee papers!

Where will Beckham be at the Start of Prem Season 2007 - 0.5 pts Retired

Beckham's contract at Real Madrid expires in Summer 2007.

Skybet have opened up the market 'Where will Beckham be at the Start of Prem. Season 2007 '

The President is keen to re-sign him but Beckham is not getting much football action from manger Capello at Real Madrid and has consequently stopped contract negotiations. Beckham may still stay at Real Madrid, but 7-4 is not a massive price - I'm not sure he will re-sign without guaranteed first team football (whcih he won't get). MLS in the US have lifted the salary cap for one 'star' player (for players such as Beckham) but 2-1 is not a big price either. He could come back to British football, but I think that is unlikely - I'm not sure he would want to play against his old club (which wouldn't rule at Rangers/Celtic, but they aren't quoted). You also need to specify a specific club, which is tricky.

Therefore, I believe the vaue is 33/1 on Beckham retiring. He is now in his early thirties and if he doesn't get a good offer, there is no need for him to continue (it is not as if he needs the money!) He is not being picked for England (and unlikley to be under McClaren), so that is not a factor. He may also suffer an injury, also terminating his career.

I'd make retiring a 10/1 chance.... if Skybet had allowed me I'd have had 2 pts - I've been restricted to 0.5 pts.

Britain's Greatest Living Icon - Stephen Fry - 20-1 - 0.5 pts

The BBC Culture show is running a poll for Britain's Greatest Living Icon. 2 bookies have opened books on this, Skybet and Paddy Power. There is is significant discrepencies between their prices. For me, the value bet is Stephen Fry at 20-1 - I'd make him a 4-1 chance. He has cross age/gender appeal and I believe will appeal to the viewers of the Culture show.

If Paddypower had allowed me, I'd have had 4pts win - as it is, I;m restricted to 0.5 pts. N.B. The other runner at a too big price is 6-1 on Paul McCartney at Sporting odds. However I'm restricting myself to one bet - it is possible that market could be manipulated by a campaign, most likely for a musician.

Full list of runners:

Sir David Attenborough
Michael Caine
Stephen Fry
Sir Paul McCartney
David Bowie
Vivienne Westwood
Alan Bennett
Kate Bush
Kate Moss

Sunday, November 12, 2006

Macdonald Brothers - 1.5 pts win - XFactor - 66/1 (Betfair)

Something very strange is happening in X Factor... I believe that the Mcdonald brothers can go far, despite not being the most talented (although they are improving). The reasons for this are:

i) Block Scottish vote c.f past X Factors.
ii) British voters love an underdog - Simon's continual tirades against them is only encouraging people to vote for them

This may mean that they have an outside chance... and many trading opportunities.

P.S. Ray Feardon left SCD last night (16-1) , 2 weeks after I tipped him at 33-1. A poor dance and the race factor did for him...just got my timing a little out.

Update: I've had a further 2 points win at 33/1 (Ladbrokes). Now the voting is only down to the public.... this coudl be close.

Mexico GP - Dan Clark - 1pt Win 20-1

With AJ Allmendinger and Paul Tracey having exited Champ Cars, the way is clear for Dan Clark to make an impact. He will need luck to play a part, but at 20/1 he is a fair price to win tonight's Mexico GP.

Hennessy Gold Cup - Antepost - Star de Mohaison - 8/1 (Ladbrokes) - 4pts win

To win the Hennessy, you need to be a young, progressive horse who fully stays 3m+. Star de Mohaison fits this bill perfectly. Running (and winning) a (hurdles) prep race at Cheltenham is also a plus... the only worry is the 11st 8lb he will need to carry (due to his high official rating). However, if he is a Gold Cup horse in the making he should be able to carry this weight.

Owner Robert Odgen's Racing Manager seems keen to send him to Newbury. If he makes the day (which is likely), I can see him starting at approx. 7-2.

Saturday, November 11, 2006

Saturday Racing.....

2.40 Chelt. 4pts Win Tumbling Dice @ 18-1 (Average Odds.... now availible at 20-1 on Betfair!)
3.45 Chelt. 1pts E/W Barrow Drive (40-1) (Betfair)

Monday, November 06, 2006

Barack Obama - US Democratic Candidate - 5pts - 8-1

Barack Obama has taken the US political scene by storm in the past 2 weeks (Time covers etc.). I think he will play well with the Democrats voters... he has a JFK feeling about him.

His main rivals are Hilary Clinton and Al Gore.

Although I've missed the fancy prices, 8-1 is more than fair - I think he should be closer to a 5-2 chance. If he stands (which I think is likely) I believe he will beat Hilary Clinton. I think Hilary Clinton is underpriced at 11/8. Although she is likely to stand, she has the strong negative that she voted for the Iraq war (Obama voted against it). This could turn out to be the key issue in the next Presidential election (not the economy, stupid!)

She also polarises voters in the way that Obama doesn't - in current polls, Obama has a slight lead.

Come on Iowa 2008!

Update: After the Mid Term elections, I've also added a furthe 4pts win on Barack Obama to be the next President at 16/1 at William Hill. After his commenst on the Larry King show, I am more than convinced than ever he will stand . There is still the hurdle of Hilary Clinton to overcome for the Democratic nomination and, if he gets this, the 'race factor' for the Presidency. However, 16-1 is too big.... I'd make him an 8-1 chance.

F1 Grand Prix Championship 2007 - Kovalainen - 33-1 2.5 pts E/W

Kovalainen has a great chance of at least getting placed in next years F1 Championship. I've found 33-1 at (he is generally a 16-1 chance). Unfortunately, they have only allowed me to place 0.5 pts E/W :(

He was test driver for Renault last year (after coming (narrowly) 2nd to Nico Rosbery in the Gp2 F1 feeder series the previosu year).

He is driving a Renault car and should out drive Fisichella. Renault and Ferrai are currently the 2 leading Manufacturers so a place finish (at worst) looks likely.

If anyone finds a bookie offering 33-1 who will take an additional bet, please let me know... I'm keeping my eye out as well. (Not all bookies have opened up on the 2007 F1 Championship yet).

Update: Bet365 have opened a book and priced Kovalainnen at 33/1 so I've added a further 2pts E/W (and updated the title)

Saturday, November 04, 2006

Emma Bunton to be evicted from SCD - 0.5 pts, 100/1

Emma Bunton has apparently had disagreements with her dancing partner. This will hinder dancing practice (reducing the judges votes) and public votes (as was seen last week - the public don't vote for 'moaners'.)

If she finishes mid divison, a shock coudl be on the cards- she is available at 66/1 for eviction at the bookies.

Breeders Cup Bets.

I've now completd my study on this event. However, I will post my bets approx. 5 mins before each raced. The reason for thsi is I wamt to have the choice of:

Inductry SPs (not likley)
Befair Prices
American Tote Prices

I've selected 2-3 horses per race, I'll make my final slection(s) depending on the prices availible just before the off... I think I may have some horse that will go off at 3 figues prices!

5.30 1.25 pts Win - Satulagi - 33-1..... can do a 'Wilko', the more adventerous could do worse than back her in running... if she wins, she will come from behind on the long straight.

6.10 0.5 pts Win - Malt Magic - 80-1 - highly regarded by legendary trainer Bob Baffert, there are excuses for his run in the G2 Norfolk after a scintillating previous performance. Could be anything.... so 100-1 is a fair price.

6.55 No bet - I really hope Ouija Board wins, not I'm not confident - she'll need to be at her best.......Update : Oujia Board wins!

7.35 1pt Win - Attila's Storm - 33-1 - I believe that a high draw is a benefit in this race (Update : I'll ignore stats in future), therefore my 2 against the field are Siren Lure and Attila's Storm. Sligt prefernce is for Attila's storm as, although Siren Lure is more progressive, Attila's Storm is 5 times the price. He is a front runner who just might never be caught...

Oops.... I thought that it was coincidence that the first 2 dirt races were won by Draw 1... and then in the 3rd dirt race, the horse from Draw 1 wins again at 14-1! :(....... I'm going to keep a watching brief now until things are clearer.....

8.15 No bet - I think that Aragorn as a good chance, but is not a massive price at 4-1. Update Aragorn 2nd... back to the dirt.

8.55 No bet .... Update: Drawn 1 has flown in again (on the Dirt) at 16-1! Unbelievable... it s like Chester!

Friday, November 03, 2006

Carl Johanneson vs Femi Fehintola - 2pts Fehintola to win om pts - 12-1 (Ladbrokes)

Fehintola has won most of his fights recently on poitns (admitedly over shorter distances). Johnanneson is a definite favourite for the fight (and rightly so). However, most of his recent fights have been KOs in early rounds. If the fight progresses to later rounds, Fehintola has a decent chance of nicking this on points at (a more than fair) 12-1.