To win the Hennessy, you need to be a young, progressive horse who fully stays 3m+. Star de Mohaison fits this bill perfectly. Running (and winning) a (hurdles) prep race at Cheltenham is also a plus... the only worry is the 11st 8lb he will need to carry (due to his high official rating). However, if he is a Gold Cup horse in the making he should be able to carry this weight.
Owner Robert Odgen's Racing Manager seems keen to send him to Newbury. If he makes the day (which is likely), I can see him starting at approx. 7-2.
5 comments:
Best Betting and Oddschecker both showed 6/1 Star de M. when I checked at 10am. This was with Lad's, B365 and BetDirect. How long did the 8's last ?
they changed the price to 6/1 yesterday?
I placed my bet after it won the race at Cheltenham (just missed the 10/1!). Not sure when the price changed, but you are correct it is now top priced at 6/1 (which I think is still reasonable value).
I'v posted the screen shot of the main page of my bet.
Thanks for answering. Do your posts always report the price you have bet at rather than the price available at the time of your blog post? I don't mean to sound such a harsh critic, but it does make a difference.
And thanks for pointing out that you think it's still value at 6's. (When calculating the profit from your tips would you count this as 8's or 6's ?)
Thanks for answering. Do your posts always report the price you have bet at rather than the price available at the time of your blog post? I don't mean to sound such a harsh critic, but it does make a difference.
>> Yes, I always state the price I have backed at, not the price that is now availible. In most cases, this will be the same but in volitle markets, the price may have changed.
This is beacuse one of the key reasons for the blog is for me to check my profitability on my bets (and hopefully improve my profitability!)
In future, I'll always state if the price is no longer current i.e the price is longer or shorter.
N.B. Prices wiull not always be shorter! I sometimes misread movements of markets... the bet before this Antepost bet was on a horse that had lengthed in price after I placed the bet. In this scenario, I posted at the price I'd backed it at, not the (longer) price that was availible when I posted to my blog.
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And thanks for pointing out that you think it's still value at 6's. (When calculating the profit from your tips would you count this as 8's or 6's ?)
>> Yes, still value but obviously mcuh less value! I count my profit from my bets i.e. I would take 8-1 in this case (and the lower price in the previous bet!) As mentioned above, I'm trying to measure my profitability.
As I've now nearly been going for a year, I'll shortly be doing some analysis and posting the results. I've a hunch what markets I am best on, but this will show the truth!
This will also give others a chance to see what I am good at as well.
N.B. I've been asked to post results of each bet... this spreadsheet will effectively have this information.
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