Sunday, November 30, 2008

Number of Live Births in 2009 > 700,000 - 2pts 9/2 Paddy Power

Paddy Power have opened a market on the number of live births in England and Wales in 2009. I've checked the historic stats on this from and they are as follows:

Year Number of live births

1997 643,095
1998 635,901
1999 621,872
2000 604,441
2001 594,634
2002 596,122
2003 621,469
2004 639,721
2005 645,835
2006 669,601
2007 690,013

Paddy Power are quoting a price of 9/2 on there being > 700,000 births - I think this is excellent value. Births this year (2008) are likely to top the 700,00 mark and I therefore think > 700,000 in 2009 should be a heavy odds-on chance. I tried to have 20 pts (£500, my max. bet) at 9/2 but was restricted to 2 pts. I will expect to collect my winning in approx 2 years time...

Saturday, November 22, 2008

SCD - 10th Elimation - Rachael Stevens - 10/1 - 4pts

Rachael Stevens showed two weeks ago what I always suspected - that she would struggle for public support. From a high position in the leaderboard, she was forced into a dance off (which she won). With a stronger field tonight, she is much more likely to lose any dance off. I have had 4 pts at a generally available 10/1 on Rachael to be eliminated tonight.

(N.B. The betting slip above only say 1.5 pts as I have had to spread my bets across multiple bookies due to betting limits on most of my accounts)

Christine Bleakley has strong public support (probably down to character and her nightly appearances on the 'One Show'. I think she she will do better than expected - I've backed her at 17/2 (4 pts) at Boylesports for the 'Top Woman' market. (This is supported by the above analysis that Rachael could be eliminated tonight). I've also have 1pt on Jodie Kidd to be Top woman (33/1, Boylesports). She could get the sympathy vote tonight due to illness which would mean she was down to the last three women.

Update : Unfortunately, for those that follow my blog, these prices are no longer available on Christine/Jodie.

Sunday, November 16, 2008

NASCAR - Ford 400 - Jimmie Johnson 2pts Win 8/1, Kevin Harvick - 2pts Win - 25/1

The final race of the NASCAR season sees just Johnson and Edwards still in with a chance of winning the Sprint Championship.
Over the years, Homestead has not been one of Jimmie Johnson's quickest circuits. Johnson only needs to finish low down in the field to win the Championship so will not take any risks to win this race. He qualified low on Friday, but showed in practice yesterday he still has the pace. He will still wish to finish the season with a win (without taking risks). At 8/1, I'm having 2pts win - he was 5/2 last week and the discrepancy is just too great.... I'd make him a 5/1 chance (at most). (N.B I've actually had 1pt at 8/1 and 1pt at 15/2 as Bet365 limited me to 1 pt!)

An alternative is Edwards who has has an excellent record here and has qualiied in 4th. He will be motivated to win this race but, at a top price 5/2, bookies are giving nothing away. The price is probably about right.

I'm also having a speculative 2pts bet on Kevin Harvick (25/1) to win this race. His record is also excellent at Homestead and has qualified this week in 5th. He is yet to win this season, but with the Championship battle possibiy affecting Edwards/Johnson, he may have a chance.... I'd make him an approx 10/1 chance (at most).

Update: Stan James have opened and allowed me a 1pt on Jimmie John (Max Allowed) at 8/1.

Saturday, November 15, 2008

David Haye v Monte Barrett - Early stoppage for Monet Barrett

Both Haye and Barrett have a record of early stoppages (Rnd 1-2). Barrett is a dangerous opponent and could spring a surprise against Haye in an early round. (Barrett has done before against opponents that have been of similar quality to Haye). I've therefor had the following bets at Ladbrokes:

3 pts Barrett to Win Rnds. 1-2 (28/1)
1 pt Barret to win Rnds. 3-4 (25/1)
1 pt Barett to win Rnds. 5-6 (22/1)
1 pt Barret to win By KO, TKO (11/2)

AS you can see, I've strongly biased this for Rnds. 1-2, but still make decent profits if Barrett wins in Rnds. 3-6 with a cover if Barrett wins in Rnds. 7-10

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

SCD - Cherie to be Eliminated (Week 9) - 25-1 1.5 pts William Hill

As someone who is backed Cherie in SCD at the start, (Outright, Top Woman) I think this is an extremely dangerous week for her (with a Latin dance). I've taken the 25-1 at William Hill as a quasi-cover bet, but even if I didn't have any bets in the outright market I'd place this bet. BTW I think she COULD come good this week, just at 25-1 I'm prepared to chance against it. She is only 25-1 this week because a successful ballroom dance last week....

Monday, November 10, 2008

Laura White to win X-Factor - 250/1 Betfair 1pt

I think there is a possibility that Laura White will be asked to make a return to X-factor. Stan James have a market on Laura's return and make her 10/1 for this eventuality. If Laura returns, she will be one of the favourites (and I'll be in an excellent position to layoff this bet for a guaranteed profit).

Sunday, November 09, 2008

John Seargent to win SCD - 1pt 100/1, Top Male 1pt 66/1 (Boylesports)

If I have been informed correctly, the dance off tonight will between Heather and Rachael, with Heather being evicted. What this shows us is that John Sergeant is either finishing at the top (or near the top) with the audience voting. (Otherwise he couldn't;t have got above Rachael). I've therefore had a speculative 1pts on both the winner (100/1) and top male (66/1) on John Sergeant for the audience to continue to confound the judges.

Saturday, November 08, 2008

Nascar Sprint Cup Checker O'Reilly 500 - Jimmie Johnson (4/1) - 4 pts, Jamie McMurray (50/1) - 0.5pts E/W

Jimmie Johnson has an excellent record at this track and will be keen to bounce back from last weeks poor performance) to win this race and make as likely as possible that he will win the Championship (2 races to go, including this race). He has qualified first on the grid (indicating last weeks issue has been resolved) and I think should be a 2/1 chance to win the race. I'm having 4pts at 4/1 at Boylesports.

I'm also having 0.5pst E/W on Jamie McMurray for this race from 2nd on the grid (max allowed - I tried to have 2pts E/W). He has been very unlucky with mechanical problem in the past few weeks, and was again unlucky last. It was only the daring fuel strategy from Edwards (who needed to maximizes points for the Championship) that stopped McMurray winning this race which an inspired to 2 tyre only change at the final pitstop.

Update: BlueSq have opened a market ion thsi race and have Jamie McMurray at 66/1 - I've had a further 1pt E/W (Max allowed)

US Presidential Election 2012 - Jeb Bush - 2pts win 100/1, 1pt Republican Nomination 33/1 - Labrokes

If Jeb Bush chooses to stand for the Republication nomination for the 2012 Election, he has an excellent chance of securing it. He was able to win (and get re-elected) as Florida Governor and, most importantly, has the Bush name to help him. His was always seen as a stronger candidate than the last Bush President (his brother) and would have the support of his family. Jeb Bush would stand on a centre right platform which, if Obama's Presidency is unsuccessful, could work well electorally. Of course there are many other Republican possible challengers (not least Palin), but at 100/1 I'm prepared to invest a couple of points of my Obama winnings. I've also had 1pt (max allowed) on him securing the Republican nomination.

Friday, November 07, 2008

Online Gambling to be legalised in the US (first action) - 16/1 - 6 pts - Paddy Power

Paddy Power have opened a market as to which of a series of actions will happen first under Barack Obama. They are as follows:

Full Troop withdrawal from Iraq 2 - 5
Capture of Osama Bin Laden 6 - 1
Full National recognition of Same Sex Marriage 7 - 1
Legalisation of Marijuana 12 - 1
Full Troop withdrawal from Afghanistan 12 - 1
Online Gambling legalised 16 - 1
Total ban of Capital Punishment 20 - 1
Constitution changed to allow the President to serve 3 or more full terms 16 - 1
Moonwalk confirmed as a fake by Obama 50 - 1
Complete ban on privately owned guns 100 - 1
Discovery of Aliens on Mars 500 - 1

A Full Troop withdrawal form Iraq will probably happen in end 2010 - he certainly won't want to go into a 2012 campaign with troops in Iraq. SO 2010 is the benchmark we are working to.

I think the most likely event to happen before then is the leaglisation of Online Gambling. The Democrats have now a strong control of the legislature and legalising gambling would be far less controversial/politically divisive than the other legislative items above. A Democrat Barney Frank has already (narrowly) failed to put through a bill to re-legalise online gambling by repealing UIGEA. It is quite possible he will put forward this bill again.

Obama is also a poker player, so from a personal perspective I think he would not have an issue with legalising online gambling - he has been 'neutral' on the issue in the past. It would also be a great way to raise taxes. I would make this an approx 3-1 chance to happen first - I'm pleased Paddy Power have allowed me 6 pts on this eventuality.

Hennessy Gold Cup - Air Force One - 8-1 - 4pts Win

Air Force One had a impressive re-appearance last weekend behind Roll Along, finishing second (when not fully fit). The handicapper has been generous and only raised him 3 lbs for that run. Air Force One is being aimed at the Hennessy (a strong 'trends' race) and has has the right profile for it. Overall, I think Air Force One has an excellent chance of winning the Hennessy Gold Cup. I am having 4pts at a generally available 8-1. (I'd make Air Force One a 5-1 chance).

Sunday, November 02, 2008

Brazil Grand Prix - Raikkonen - 11/1 - 1.5 pts - SportingBet

As per my post below, I think this is a much more open Brazil Grand Prix than the markets suggest. Massa is 8/13 and Raikkonen is 11/1 - this difference is far too large. I appreciate that Raikkonen starts in 4th rather than 1st on the grid and would, in many circumstances, be asked to give way to Massa but the differences in price is simply too big. I'd make the correct prices 5/4 Massa, 5/1 Raikkonen. I would have liked to have 4pst on Raikkonen, but I was restricted to 1.5 pts.

Brazil F1 GP - Hamilton to retire on Lap 1 - 20/1 - Stan James

With rain forecast, this race is very difficult to call. The one thing I am sure of is that Massa is not a good price at 8/13 to win the race. However, picking who will beat him is a lottery. I've therefore focussed on the 'speciality markets'. Unfortunately, most of these offer little value. The only one I like the look of is the 20/1 on Hamilton to retire on the first lap.

Staring from fifth, a crash on the first lap for Hamilton is a real possibility. From a slow start, either Trulli or Raikkonen could back up the field. Alonso could then easily 'unfortunately' run into the back of Hamilton. Alternatively, Raikkonen could have a slow start could collide with Hamilton - Raikkonen (Ferrai) will not back off. Hamilton will of course try an play it cautious, however from the miiddle of the pack that is easier said than done. It is also not in Hamilton's nature. Any rain would increase the probability of a crash on the first corner.

Just hoping for no start under the safety car! The other issue could be that Hamilton's car is repaired and sent out agin several laps beind if the damage is not severe (especially is there is rain and the possibility of few finshers).

I would make a Hamilton retirement on the first lap an 8/1 chance. I tried to have 2pts with Stan James, but they restricted me to 1 pt - if I get a chance, I will see if I can put on the extra 1pt in a shop this afternoon.

Update: I went to a SJ shop - the price has been cut to 16/1! I had another 1pt at this price.