Paddy Power have opened a market as to which of a series of actions will happen first under Barack Obama. They are as follows:
Full Troop withdrawal from Iraq 2 - 5
Capture of Osama Bin Laden 6 - 1
Full National recognition of Same Sex Marriage 7 - 1
Legalisation of Marijuana 12 - 1
Full Troop withdrawal from Afghanistan 12 - 1
Online Gambling legalised 16 - 1
Total ban of Capital Punishment 20 - 1
Constitution changed to allow the President to serve 3 or more full terms 16 - 1
Moonwalk confirmed as a fake by Obama 50 - 1
Complete ban on privately owned guns 100 - 1
Discovery of Aliens on Mars 500 - 1
A Full Troop withdrawal form Iraq will probably happen in end 2010 - he certainly won't want to go into a 2012 campaign with troops in Iraq. SO 2010 is the benchmark we are working to.
I think the most likely event to happen before then is the leaglisation of Online Gambling. The Democrats have now a strong control of the legislature and legalising gambling would be far less controversial/politically divisive than the other legislative items above. A Democrat Barney Frank has already (narrowly) failed to put through a bill to re-legalise online gambling by repealing UIGEA. It is quite possible he will put forward this bill again.
Obama is also a poker player, so from a personal perspective I think he would not have an issue with legalising online gambling - he has been 'neutral' on the issue in the past. It would also be a great way to raise taxes. I would make this an approx 3-1 chance to happen first - I'm pleased Paddy Power have allowed me 6 pts on this eventuality.
1 comment:
now into 6/1
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