Sunday, November 16, 2008
NASCAR - Ford 400 - Jimmie Johnson 2pts Win 8/1, Kevin Harvick - 2pts Win - 25/1
The final race of the NASCAR season sees just Johnson and Edwards still in with a chance of winning the Sprint Championship.
Over the years, Homestead has not been one of Jimmie Johnson's quickest circuits. Johnson only needs to finish low down in the field to win the Championship so will not take any risks to win this race. He qualified low on Friday, but showed in practice yesterday he still has the pace. He will still wish to finish the season with a win (without taking risks). At 8/1, I'm having 2pts win - he was 5/2 last week and the discrepancy is just too great.... I'd make him a 5/1 chance (at most). (N.B I've actually had 1pt at 8/1 and 1pt at 15/2 as Bet365 limited me to 1 pt!)
An alternative is Edwards who has has an excellent record here and has qualiied in 4th. He will be motivated to win this race but, at a top price 5/2, bookies are giving nothing away. The price is probably about right.
I'm also having a speculative 2pts bet on Kevin Harvick (25/1) to win this race. His record is also excellent at Homestead and has qualified this week in 5th. He is yet to win this season, but with the Championship battle possibiy affecting Edwards/Johnson, he may have a chance.... I'd make him an approx 10/1 chance (at most).
Update: Stan James have opened and allowed me a 1pt on Jimmie John (Max Allowed) at 8/1.