With rain forecast, this race is very difficult to call. The one thing I am sure of is that Massa is not a good price at 8/13 to win the race. However, picking who will beat him is a lottery. I've therefore focussed on the 'speciality markets'. Unfortunately, most of these offer little value. The only one I like the look of is the 20/1 on Hamilton to retire on the first lap.
Staring from fifth, a crash on the first lap for Hamilton is a real possibility. From a slow start, either Trulli or Raikkonen could back up the field. Alonso could then easily 'unfortunately' run into the back of Hamilton. Alternatively, Raikkonen could have a slow start could collide with Hamilton - Raikkonen (Ferrai) will not back off. Hamilton will of course try an play it cautious, however from the miiddle of the pack that is easier said than done. It is also not in Hamilton's nature. Any rain would increase the probability of a crash on the first corner.
Just hoping for no start under the safety car! The other issue could be that Hamilton's car is repaired and sent out agin several laps beind if the damage is not severe (especially is there is rain and the possibility of few finshers).
I would make a Hamilton retirement on the first lap an 8/1 chance. I tried to have 2pts with Stan James, but they restricted me to 1 pt - if I get a chance, I will see if I can put on the extra 1pt in a shop this afternoon.
Update: I went to a SJ shop - the price has been cut to 16/1! I had another 1pt at this price.
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