Sunday, January 28, 2007

Snooker - Malta Open - Tom Ford - 1pt E/W 200-1

Tom Ford has previously peformed well in this tournament, and is located in the easiest half of the draw. He has yet to reach his full potential, perhaps this could be the week!

Sunday, January 21, 2007

Murray to win Aiustralian Open without losing a set.

I'm generally not one for fun bets (=losing bets in general) but I can't resist 1pt on Andrew Murray to win the Australin Open without dropping a set at 300-1 at William Hill. Go Murray!

Saturday, January 20, 2007

Boxing - Morua v Witter- Murua to win on points - 16-1

Witter's last 4 fights have finished on points. Murua's last 10 fights have finished on points. Despite what Witter says (i.e. that he will provide an early stoppage), these facts point towards a points finish. In this case , Witter is the most likely to win (and is a even money chance to do so), but Murua is overpriced at 16-1 to pull of a surprise and take this match via the judges.

I'm having 2 pts on a Murua pts win at the generally availible 16-1.

Date Blair ceases to peform Prime Ministerial Duties

This week the Prime Minister announced he would be attending the IGC at the end of June 2007. This makes me even move convinced that he will not cease his Prime Ministerial duties in May (a 1.72 chance at William Hill).

I have previously had 6pts at 25-1 on July - this is now a 12-1 chance, but still a great price. I'd make him a 2-1 chance to leave on this date. I also previously had 1 pt on August (50-1) and September (33-1). These prices are still availible. I am coming to the conclusion that there is a possibility that Blair may string this out to the Party conference (end Sept. 2007) to ceremonially hand over being Premier at a formal occasion. The other benefit to Blair is that the longer he waits, the longer the possibility a challenger will appear against Brown.

I have therefore had a further 2pts at 33-1 for him to leave on in September 2007

This of course could be derailed by the Cash for Honours inquiry e.g if he is arrested on a PCJ charge or the report to the CPS is negative (and published), but I think that both of these scenarios are unlikely.

Next US President - Barack Obama - 9-1 - William Hill - 10pts

I have previously backed Barack Obama at 16-1 to be US President. This week, Obama announced on hs website ( that he was establishing an Exploratory Committee, the fisrt step to mounting a Presidential Challenge. He is due to make an final decision on Feb 10th 2007, and then stated he 'looked forward to continuing our conversation in the weeks and months to come'. This to me looks like he will run for President.

A recent poll for the Democratic Nomination make him close to Hilary Clinton (, with the other runners far behind (although another poll I've seen this has Clinton still 10pts ahead. Both these polls were taking before Obama's announcement, from which he should get a lift. I thinks that this will be a two horse race for the Democratic nomination, with the momemtum at present in Obama's favour. (His use of the internet for the announcement is impressive).

At many bookies he is approx 9/2 for next President (which I think is the correct price), so I've had 10pts on Obama at 9/1 at William Hill. I see him as the next JFK (who overcame the supposed *electoral* handicap of being Catholic (he was the 1st non Protestant president) -Obama could do the same for being a non White candidate.

N.B. William Hill are taking a stance in a number of markets in politicl events and are happy to take proper sized of of is gone to be a serious loser!

Celebrity Big Brother - Danielle Lloyd (100/1), Jo O'Meara (100/1) 1pt Each

With the malign influence of Jade Goody disappeared, Danielle and Jo a chance of re-establishing their credibility. Neither received many nominations this week, and, as has already been seen, these markets has history of rapidly changing favourites/outsiders.

I;ve had my money on Betfair, so I have a chance laying off if either goes into single figures.

Sunday, January 14, 2007

Australian Tennis Mens Open Preview

Federer is a prohibitively short priced favourite at best priced 2-5. His record in this Grand Slam event is the weakest of the Grand Slams, excepting the French Open. He is of course the most likely winner, however there is much better E/W value in the other half of the draw.

Nadal was out of form in the 2nd half of 2006, so is no value at 8-1. In the forth quarter his much difficult openents will be Blake (20-1), Hewitt (50-1) and Murray (40-1). Blake has a tough first round match against Moya - if he gets through this he has a great chance of reaching the final. Therefore at this stage he is probably best avoided. I still have doubts regarding Murray's fitness, therefore with a relatively hard draw, he may lose in the last 16 (Nadal) or last 8 (Blake) if either match goes to 5 sets. Hewitt is not the force of old, although he will be motiuvated for his 'home' event.

The 2 top 8 seeds in the 3rd quarter are Nalbandian and Davydenko. However, both have injury doubts so there is some great value to be found. My preference is to have 1pt E/W on both Soderling (100-1) and Malisse (125-1). This event has a recent history of haveing a least one big priced finalist.

Soderling has been steadliy improving. He has the game to suit hard court tennis and good recent hard court form, losing in the Doha semi final in 3 sets (on a tie break) to eventual winner Ljubicic. The onw worry is whether he has the right psychological make up - he seems to lose too many games when he is playing the better tennis (e.g against Ljubicic in Doha).

Malisse reached 2 hard court semi finals last year and also has good recent form, winning in Chennai beating Nadal in the semi-final.

Saturday, January 13, 2007

Chelteham Gold Cup - Halcon Genelardis - 33/1 2pts E/W

If the ground at Cheltenham comes of soft (or heavy), I believe that Halcon Genelardis will start a much shorter price than 33/1. With the current climate conditions and the casualties caused by faster ground last year, these softer conditions are a real possibility.

If it is soft ground, not only will it suit Halcon Generaldis there are several horse it will be a problem for. Kauto Star (7/4) may be one of these, staying up the Cheltenham hill is always a true test of stamina. However, the reason I'm not backing Kauto Star is because of his jumping... I don't think he will make it around, probably falling at the 3rd last - anyone want to give me a price on this?

Halcon Genelardis produced a great performance win the Welsh National (for which he had be layed out for by Alan King, a trainer for who I have a high respect). Through a line with Juveigneur, Halcon Genelardis has a similar form to Hennessy winner Stae of Play, who is half the price (although State of Play is more verslatile in terms of different types of ground he can run on). It is these type of progressive horses that I also focus on for the Gold Cup.

Halcon Generladis is scheduled for a re-appearance in the Wetherby and Christopher (formerly the Pillar) later this month at Cheltenham where he will face Ou Vic, another horse I think has a good chance. By running Our Vic less often often they seem to have found the key to this horse, alkthough I don't fully trust him yet. If Haclon Genelardis beats Our Vic on good-soft ground in thsi race (which I think is a real possibility), he could be into approx 10/1.

Update: The 33/1 has now disappeared, but there is still plenty of 25/1 availible.

Next Premiership Manager to Leave in 2007 - Mourinho - 33/1 (Corals)

I've had a 'cratfy' 1pt on Mourinho to be the next Premiership Manage to leave in 2007. Things appear to be going from bad to worse in his relationship with Chelsea. It is likely that he will leave in the summer (I'd make it an odds on chance now), but there is a possibility he will leave earlier than that e.g to Real Madrid if Capello leaves mid season and Mourinho is offered the Real Madrid position.

As regards other Premiership managers leaving , there are no other obvious candidates.... if one qwas to leav, it would have probably of happended at the start of the mid season transfer window.

N.B. If no manager levaes this season, this bet is settled as a loser.

Update: This market has now been pulled by Corals.... will probably re-appear at the end of the day after todays games have been played.

Saturday, January 06, 2007

2.40 Sandown - Tolwoth Hurdle - 1pts WIn Load Baskerville 200/1 (Betfair)

Small fields on heavy ground can throw up suprise results.

Lord Baskervill goes well fresh, is fine on the (heavy) ground and was progressive last year. 200/1 is a bit of an insult. He will need to improve, but is not any lbs off the market leaders on ratings. The main worry is the trainer is currently out of form.

Mourinho NOT to be Chelsea Manager at End 2007 - 6/1 (Corals)

Mourinho's contract expires this summer. There are a number of reasons for thinking that he will then leave:

- relationship with Abramovich & Kenyon. As a result of the 'Gallas' affair (and over other matters), neither realtionbhsip is strong.
- Mourinho is strong willed and, if things start turning againist him, is unlikely to back down against Abramovich/Kenyon
- Mourinho walked out from his first appointment
- Chelsea are doing well this year at present (by their high standards).

I've had 3pts at 6/1....