Chelteham Gold Cup - Halcon Genelardis - 33/1 2pts E/W

If the ground at Cheltenham comes of soft (or heavy), I believe that Halcon Genelardis will start a much shorter price than 33/1. With the current climate conditions and the casualties caused by faster ground last year, these softer conditions are a real possibility.

If it is soft ground, not only will it suit Halcon Generaldis there are several horse it will be a problem for. Kauto Star (7/4) may be one of these, staying up the Cheltenham hill is always a true test of stamina. However, the reason I'm not backing Kauto Star is because of his jumping... I don't think he will make it around, probably falling at the 3rd last - anyone want to give me a price on this?

Halcon Genelardis produced a great performance win the Welsh National (for which he had be layed out for by Alan King, a trainer for who I have a high respect). Through a line with Juveigneur, Halcon Genelardis has a similar form to Hennessy winner Stae of Play, who is half the price (although State of Play is more verslatile in terms of different types of ground he can run on). It is these type of progressive horses that I also focus on for the Gold Cup.

Halcon Generladis is scheduled for a re-appearance in the Wetherby and Christopher (formerly the Pillar) later this month at Cheltenham where he will face Ou Vic, another horse I think has a good chance. By running Our Vic less often often they seem to have found the key to this horse, alkthough I don't fully trust him yet. If Haclon Genelardis beats Our Vic on good-soft ground in thsi race (which I think is a real possibility), he could be into approx 10/1.

Update: The 33/1 has now disappeared, but there is still plenty of 25/1 availible.