Date Blair ceases to peform Prime Ministerial Duties

This week the Prime Minister announced he would be attending the IGC at the end of June 2007. This makes me even move convinced that he will not cease his Prime Ministerial duties in May (a 1.72 chance at William Hill).

I have previously had 6pts at 25-1 on July - this is now a 12-1 chance, but still a great price. I'd make him a 2-1 chance to leave on this date. I also previously had 1 pt on August (50-1) and September (33-1). These prices are still availible. I am coming to the conclusion that there is a possibility that Blair may string this out to the Party conference (end Sept. 2007) to ceremonially hand over being Premier at a formal occasion. The other benefit to Blair is that the longer he waits, the longer the possibility a challenger will appear against Brown.

I have therefore had a further 2pts at 33-1 for him to leave on in September 2007

This of course could be derailed by the Cash for Honours inquiry e.g if he is arrested on a PCJ charge or the report to the CPS is negative (and published), but I think that both of these scenarios are unlikely.