Monday, December 31, 2007

Premiership/FA Cup Double - 12/1 - 6pts - William Hill


Prices are available for both the Premiership and FA Cup so it is relatively easy to work out what the chance of a double occuring, assuming they are unrelated events. I've done the maths and I make it an approx 6/1 chance (assuming unrelated events).

They are of course related, but if anything there is a positive correlation. A team that is strong is likley to win both events. Against this, they may also field weaker teams in the FA Cup as they are likely to also be playing in multiple competitions but I think that this is less of a factor.

Looking back in recent history, it has been achieved 3/10 years - this high rate is not suprising due to the increased dominance of the 'Big 4' clubs in both competitions.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Double

Taking current odds and recent history into account, I would make thsi a 4-1/5-1 chance. I have therefore had 6pts (max. allowed) on the double occuring.

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