Regular readers of my blog will know I've backed 'To The Manor Born' as Top Christmas Day Program (at an average 20-1). By backing Love Actullay as Top Film, I've effectively got a quasi-hedge they both start at 9:30 p.m. It is of course possible that either both of neither bets could come in, but at 6/1 and 20/1 I'm prepared to take that chance.
Can Love Actually be top Chritsma Film? It is a definate possibility as it main competitors are on Chritmas afternoon. Audiences in the afternoon are signficnatly lower than in the evening. Although Love Actually will have a smaller % share of the watching audience than the afternoon films, in absolute terms (which is what is being measured) the number watching could be larger. Shrek 2 and Polar Express also clash, not heplful for films aimed at similar audiences.
I'd make Love actually a 2/1 chance and therefor I'm having 3.5 pst (max. allowed) at 6/1.
'Hat-tip' to J.O. Tobin who higlighted the chances of Love Atcually on the Betfair Specials Forum. Amongst the dross that is often posted (you know who you are!) there are interesting posts suich as this.
Update: Love Actually has moved into 4/1, still a good price.
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