Sports Personality Year 2008 Preview

In Olympic Years, it is best to side with those that will have success in Olympic Events. In the past three Olympiuc Years, the 1-2-3 were as follows (Olympians in bold) (2 from 4 winners, 8 from 12 places):

2004 : 1st Kelly Holmes : 2nd Matthew Pinsent : 3rd Andrew Flintoff
2000 : 1st : Steve Redgrave 2nd : Denise Lewis : 3rd Tanni Grey Thompson
1996 : 1st Damon Hill : 2nd Steve Redgrave : 3rd Frnkie Dettori
1992 : 1st Nigel Mansell : 2nd Linford Christie : 3rd Sally Gunnell

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBC_Sports_Personality_of_the_Year

Past high performers in SPOTY have an execllent record futire record - being a previous winner is not a bar as Damon Hill showed in 1994/1996.

I have looked at British Olympians and the prospects for 2008 are:

Marathon: Paul Radcliffe (6/1) has an oustanding chnce of winning SPOTY 2008 if she wins Olympic Marthon Gold. She is a 5/2 chnce for Olympic Gold, but I can't help thinking she may struggle in the Beijing heat/smog (who can forget Athens, her only other Marthon failure). However, if she wins the Marthon I would be prepared to take a short price on her winning SPOTY 2008.

Heptathlon: Jessica Ennis (66/1) / Kelly Sotherton (50/1). Preference is for Jessica Ennis (she is improving each year. Kelly Sotheton continues to struggle with the Javelin. BlueSq make a Gold Medal winner from one of these two a 7/4 chance. They would be greatly assisted if the domimant force in this event (Kruft) didn't compete. This is possible via injury to her or if she chooses to concentrate ona single event (which is current rumour - I don't buy it myslef).

400m : Ohuruogu (33/1) - this is a competitive event and she may struggle to win Olympic Gold. Ohuruogu is additional tainted by the three missed drug tests.

EquastrianZara Philips (50/1), where the fact she is a Royal gives her extra media coverage and votes. She has qualified for Bejing 2008 and, if Toytown stys fit coudl put in a strong individual peformance.

Other than athletics, gymnast Beth Tweddle (66/1) and sailor Ben Ainslie (40/1) both have medal chances. Preference would be for Beth Tewddle due to her past SPOTY record and the fact Ainslie is not certain to complete in the Olympics.

(See article below dicussing medal prospects.)

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/08082007/58/beijing-countdown-british-hopes.html

Other than Olympians, other possible winners are :

Lewis Hamilton (will need to win the F1 World Chamionship) - (7/2)
Justin Rose (will need to win a golf major - (25/1)
Andrew Murray (will need to win to reach a final of a Grand Slam event, probably win it (other then Wimbledon when a final appearance might be enough) - (10/1)
Amir Khan - probably too early in his career - (25/1)

A footballer, cricketer or rugby player is unlikely as there are no major championships.

Conclusion

2 pts win Zara Philips - 50/1 (Corals)
2 pts win Equatstrian winning Sport - 40/1 (Corals) - (Corals limited me to 2pts on Zara Philips - not sure who else I have running for me!)
2pts win Jessica Ennis - 66/1 (Stan James)
1pt win Beth Tweddle - 66/1 (Corals)

There is market on Betfair that will allow trading during the year. This is especialy importnt on the SPOTY night as both Darren Clarke (2006) and Lewis Hamilton (2007) both traded at short prices and both finished 2nd. On the night coverage by the BBC can have a signficant effect. The BBC my well focus on the Olympics as, being a listed event, this is one of the few events where they have the rights to.

Any comments very welcome.... hopefully I can follow up with my success on 2006/Zara Philips (11/1) and 2007/Lewis Hamilton (25/1, laid at 1/3).