I've checked the history of the Premiership and since it's inception in 1992 no title has been decided on goal difference (15 runnings). However, three titles (94-95, 97-98, 98-99) have been decided by only 1pt, therefore I think that the 50/1 that William Hill are offering on the title to be decided on goal difference is a too big. I'd make it an approx 10/1 chance (this is an intuitive feel - I haven;t doen the stats anlysis to back this up- any volunteers?). No team is 'running away' with the title and conceivably any of the big four teams coudl still win. I've therfore had 1pt (max. allowed) at 50/1.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Premier_League_seasons
5 comments:
I like this bet a great deal as I think that the title will be decided on the final day of the season as the teams as the top have very little to seperate them. So goal difference to dedide the title is possible of happening. the Scotish title was decided on goal difference just a few years ago, so it does happen. However I have just checked the price and its a crazy 7/1 shot now. I under an hour the price has dropped through the floor.I am very disappointed with Will Hill. I can't put the bet on at that price.
I don't think 7/1 is much value. I wouldn't be especially interested at that price.
If I was William Hill I'd now tell you that 50/1 was a mistake and the bet is null and void.
Looks like you might be collecting Chris!
Sweet bet - wish I'd gone in for it and seen it at the 50 instead of the 7 which meant that I passed on it!
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