After backing the winner of SPOTY 2006 at 11/1 last year, last Christmas, rather than gibving you my heart, I previewed the SPOTY 2007. My sole bet was Hamiltion at 25/1 (4 pts).
http://kickingbets.blogspot.com/2006_12_01_archive.html (look approx. half way down)
I've now decided it is time to lock in 62 pts profit by laying Hamilton at 1.37 for SPOTY 2007 on Betfair. He is clearly favourite at present, but there is still 6 months (and many Sporting events) to go e.g Golf Majors, Tennis Majors and the World Atchletics Championships. There is also the 'celebrity factor' which could give Dettori/Beckham a chance.
This lay off takes away 6 months of uncertainty... still rooting for Hamilton to win the F1 Chamionship though, with 3 pts E/W at 25-1 and 10 pts at 5-1 on a top 3 finish!
(Perhaps I should stick to just SPOTY betting?!).
BTW, at the request of a reader, I will post an update on results at the end of June 2007. This will be a % profit since the start of my blog (Jan 2006-June 2007), for this year (Jan 2007-Jun 2007) and a record of outstanding bets.
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2007
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June
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- Northumberland Plate - Dr Sharp - 2pts win - 22-1
- Andrew Murray - SPOTY without Hamilton - 33/1 - 4pts
- Wimbledon Men's Championship - Roddick Back (to L...
- Six monthly update on performance.
- America's Cup - Correct Score Betting - 5-0
- US Open - Top European (Market Post Rnd 3.) - Pett...
- Rugby Union Tri Nations - Australia - 16-1 - 2pts ...
- Jamieson Gold - 9-1 - 2pts -2.25 Sandown
- US Grand Prix F1 - 2pts Heidfield - 9-2 Betdirect
- Lock in SPOTY profits (62 pts) - Lay Hamilton at 1.37
- Take advantage of Musselburgh draw....
- Next Man City Manager - Graeme Souness - 2pts 25-1
- Epsom Derby - take on Authorised with the O'Brien ...
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June
(13)
4 comments:
Do you think Hamilton's still worthy of a bet at Evens to win the drivers title? The way he won in Canada (a track he hadn't even raced on until Thursday/Friday suggests to me this could be all but over in about 4 races time. A can't see the Ferrari's coming back into it and suggestions in the media today are that Alonso is unhappy as McLaren are favouring Hamilton. Ive missed the boat by a mile regarding price but I think he should be a 4/6 shot. Your thoughts? P.S Great blog, have been reading it for a few months.
Eddie
Hmmm. I've seen a lot worse bets than Hamilton at evens.
I agree, I think with the new scroring structure and 4 competive drivers, it will be tough for Ferrari to come back - Raikkonen seems to have lost it mentally and I don't think Massa is quite good enough... especially given the points he's behind.
So that leaves Hamilton and Alonso.
My preference is for Hamilton as I think Alosnso is rattled.
I think Hamilton will do well at Indianapolis this week so if I was going to back him for the chmapionship, I'd do it now.
So in summary, the only bet I'd consider is Hamilton and, as you say, he probably spould be 4/6.
Just not my sort of bet... to make it worth betting you need big stakes at evens.
Hello. Nice profit from this trade here. May I ask if you will having any tips on the US Open? If I had to pick a few to follow, I'd go after KJ Choi, Stenson, Harrington and Furyk.
My thoughts were that Furyk would be suited by this course, and I was tempted by the 20-1.
However, after some thought, rather than backing a player pre-tournamnet, the way I am going to try to play this is to back a player who is the clubhouse with approx 2 hrs to go with a score that I think could win (but the market doesn't think likely).
This course is going to be unforgiving for a player on the last 9 holes when the pressure is on...(especially if they are unused to the pressure).
Watch for my bet Sunday early evening...
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