Monday, June 18, 2007

America's Cup - Correct Score Betting - 5-0

These are the previosu results from the America's Cup.

2003 Switzerland Alinghi won 5-0 New Zealand
2000 New Zealand won 5-0 Prada Challenge Italy
1995 New Zealand Black Magic won 5-0 Young America United States
1992 United States America won 4-1 Il Moro di Venezia Italy
1988 United States America won 2-0 New Zealand Challenge
1987 United States Stars and Stripes won 4-0 Kookaburra Australia

Notice a pattern? It is clear that a win to zero is highly likely. I suspect the reason for this is the 'compressed' nature of the racing final. If 2 F1 cars raced head to head over a 2 week period in a best of 9 tournanment, it is highly likely that one would win 5-0 as one drive/car combination would be relatively superior and would only lose a race by mistake/accident etc. The short time period would mean that there woudl be no time to make substantial changes to the equipment (car/yacht.... almost said boat :) ).

I'm not sure what the outright prices were before the previous finals... the prices this time are approx 4-6 Switzerland, 6-4 New Zealand. Although this may indicate unpredicatability in the outcome, this does not necssarily mean that a 5-0 result is unlikely - just that it is uncertain WHO will win 5-0.

Liquidity in light on Betfair, however I have managed to get on the following bets:

5 pts Win 8-1 Switzerland
0.5 Win 10-1 New Zealand (cover bet)

P.S. Bet365 also bet on this market... I don't dare to to put a bet on with then. 5p?

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