This weekend, both 'The Simpsons' and 'Transformers' are launched. The top grossing UK film will typically take approx £16m during an opeining weeekend (e.g. Shrek III, Harry Potter). Paddypower have a market as to how much each of these films will take. I think that they could both take lower than expected as they are both fighting against each other and the recently launched Harry Potter film (similar audiences). An quick analsysis of the no. of screens showing each of these films shows 'The Simpsons' is showing on the most screens. 'Transformers' doesn't seem to be showing on signficantly more screens than Harry Potter. The bets I've placed are therefore as follows:
'Transformers' to take less than £12m - 6-4 - thsi is one of the great bets of all time - I'd make it a 1-5 chance. I've had 4 pst on this - the max online they would allow me.
'The Simpsons' to take less than £12m - 5-1 - this should proabably be an even money chance. I've had 1pts on this , again the max online they would allow.
The benefit of this approach is that I would think it was virtually impossible for both films to take more than £12m (i.e. either the 6-4 bet or the 5-1 bet (or both) will win).
Update: This market is now closed. The results can be seen at
http://www.ukfilmcouncil.org.uk/cinemagoing/boxoffice/ ... I also used this for the historic statistics.