d wrld S txt crzy, so itz no suprise d C d no. of txt messgs sent on nu yrs Eve continually rising. d record 4t past 3 yrs S as follows (MDA figures)
20o7 - 214 million text messages
2006 - 165 million
2005 - 133 million
Paddy pwr av priced ^ hw mnE wl B sent dis nu yrs Eve. 205 million S md a 13-8 chnc - I tnk dis isa gr8 prices n shd B closer 2 a 1-5 chnc - I realy cnt C der bn less txt mesages dis yr (provide d SMS netwrk holds up). They've allowd me 2.5 pts wich S resonable on a mkt lk dis.
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8 comments:
Chris
Great blog. But one question on this:
Don't the historical figures you've quoted refer to New Year's DAY... as opposed to New Year's EVE which the Paddy Power market is for?
those statistics were for new years day (and so include all the happy new years texts whilst the market is for new years eve), whilst the market is for new years eve. i think the bet still has a good chance but it's not necessarily a certainity
I think these figures are for New Years eve (see http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/4582060.stm).... however I've yet to get a definitive answer for this from the MDA site.
think u f*cked up here
Can you provide a little more detail? i.e. links that show that the figures I quote are wrong.
Trinder, I just spoke to Paddy Power and they said 'I imagine it's the 24 hour period that is Dec 31st'. If the stats you quote relate to Jan 1st then maybe the best price is 6/1 on <185m texts on Dec 31.
The article you've shown is pretty ambiguous because it states new years eve at the start but goes on to say the figures are from midnight new years day to midnight new years eve, which suggest figures for 1st january.
I'm pretty sure it means first of january because it is obviously after midnight that people text to wish happy new year. also i think this link clears it up. http://www.text.it/mediacentre/press_release_list.cfm?thePublicationID=ED01B109-FD55-2155-DB2178BC249826CC
might still be a value bet though since you'd expect there to be a lot of texts before midnight with everyone trying to organise their night out.
I am convinced now that the figures I have quoted are for New Years Day, rather than New Years Eve. However, MDA only release figures for New Years Day so I thnk this is what Paddy Power intended the market to be (not New Years Eve). Interesting to see how this is settled - the martket has now been pulled. It may be voided...
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