Brazil GP - Hamilton to finish Lap 1 in worse position than Grid

Hamilton is 2nd on the grid, but for a couple of reasons I think he could be in a worse position at the end of lap 1:

- he is starting from the dirty side of the grid (like all even grid positions) - this will hinder his start
- he has 2 rivals who can win, so he needs to keep any confrontatiosn mimimized. Therfore from a "game theory" perspective, he is likely to 'back out' from an early confrontaion with Raikonnen (in 3rd) at the first corner. I think Raikkonen (or even Alonso in 4th) will try to make a move on Hamilton, most likely going into the first corner.

The 11/4 at Skybet is a more than reasonable price - I'd be going 5/4.

The only possible issue is that Hmailton is such a racer, he won't back out - however, depsite his young age and racing mentality, he will not want to throw the championship away.