Saturday, February 10, 2007

0 or 1 Pricewise Winners at the Cheltenham Festival - 3-1 - 8pts.

I've completed some analysis based on the (4 day) 2005 and 2006 Cheltenham festivals, and the bigest price I can make this is 6-4. Ladbrokes who run this market are taking a major chance at 3-1. (This market doesn't include Antepost bets).

Of course, this analysis only stands up if Pricewise (Tom Segal) adopts a similar strategy as the previous years. Actually, you could argue that thie price should be closer to 'Even Money' this year as he there are more short price horses in the Major races (where he already has ante post bets). This limits him to the (tricky) handicaps.

One possible reason for Ladbrokes to adopt this stregay is that if Pricewise has 0-1 winners,. they wil be more than happy to pay out on this market as they will have made a signficnat amount by not paying out to the many punters who follow 'Pricewise'.

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