Labour to win the Glenrothes By-Election - 6pts - 10/3

The result in the 2005 General Election was.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenrothes_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

General Election, 5 May 2005
Party Candidate Votes %
Labour John MacDougall 19,395 51.9
Scottish National Party John Beare 8,731 23.4
Liberal Democrat Elizabeth Riches 4,728 12.7
Conservative Belinda Don 2,651

The latest opinion polls in this constituency put Labour/SNP neck and neck (they were taken some time ago, before the recent financial crisis). Be warned though - most polls overstate Labour support (e.g in the Glasgow East By Election where they wwere +15% ahead in the polls and narrowly lost.) If the swing from Labour to SNP at the By Election is as large as the the Glasgow East By Election, SNP will win this seat.

The Labour candidate is not very strong, but I don't think this has a significant impact.

However, the current financial meltdown *may* well be a ‘game changer’ (like Gordon’s cancelled election, Inheritance Tax etc.) This time the 'game changer' could be in Labour's favour, rather than the previous ones which were aginst it. Votes could 'cling' Brown similar to Major in 1992 (during the last recession).

I therefore think the Glenrothes by-election in early Novemeber will be close and have taken the 10/3 at Coral on Labour (6 pts).

Update: Unfortunately, the top price you cna now get on Labour is now 9/4 (Stan James) - this is still a reasonable bet.