I normally steer clear of betting on individual footabll matches as the markets are usually very accurate. The only time I believe there is significant value is at the end of the season when bookies tend to underprice those teams who have to win (e.g. Sunderalnd V Chelsea where Sunderland are poor value).
Seria A is notorious dangerous to bet on at the end of season as results that would favour both teams are especially short (e.g. a draw in the Chievo v Bologna match today at 4-7!). I don't lay these 'short' prices as the results seem to occur just as often as the odds suggest.
Despite these reservations, Genoa must be fantastic value today at 6-1. The bookies has priced this match up assuming Genoa have nothing to play for. Genoa (currently 5th) have already secured a Europa League place but realistically need to win this game to have a chance of finishing fourth and getting a Champions League Place. The Genoa manager has given no hint that he will be taken this game easy - his pre-match commnent state quite the reverse. Turin are 17th, just above releagtion, and will be desperate for three points but wanting three points and getting them are two different matters.
P.S. I've also had 4 pts on Tottenham at 6-1 to beat Liverpool at Anfield today. This is primarily a cover bet as I have backed (earlier in the season) the following results:
- Liverpool to go undefeated at home
- Tottenham to finish 7th
both of whcih (as aa minimum) require a Tottenham win. I also don't think Tottenham are bad value at 6-1.
2 comments:
Superb tip Chris. Managed to get 6.4 on Betfair (think you must have taken most of the 7.0...!!). According to Sky Sports commentary Genoa had the majority of the game and deserved their win. Keep the tips coming!!
Unfortunately I missed this one. The Button and Brawn tips are looking very nice at the moment though!
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