At Christmas, my (betting) thoughts turn to yearly specials. These can sometimes be poor value, but amongst the dross are a few gems. The first review I've made is of Skybets's 2010 Specials markets. If anyone can spot and value bets I've missed, please post as a comment or, if you would prefer, send to chris.trinder@gmail.com.
1. Golf - An Amateur to win on the Europen Tour - 7-1
Amateurs have have had a suprisingly good record on the European tour recently. There have been three wins (two in 2009, one in 2007) so 7-1 is a great price. I think it should be much shorter (2-1?). I've had 6 pts (max. allowed). This could make for some interesting viewing of final rounds....
2. Tennis - Murray to win 7 (or more) ATP titles - 7-1
Murray won 5 ATP titles in 2007 and 6 ATP titles in 2008. Nadal is less of a threat now (but Del Potro is more of a threat). I woudl think Murray will probably win approx 6/7 singles titles so 7-1 on 7+ titles is a graet bet... I'd make it an approx 6-4 chance at most. I've had 8pts (max. allowed). It should keep me interested in watching the Men's ATP Tennis for the year!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Murray
3. Cricket - Top Test Score to be greater than 735 - 16-1
The 3 highest test scores last year were:
765
760
749
(all of which would have made this bet payout). Unless I am missing something, the 16-1 is excellent value - I think this should be an odds on shot. I've had 1.5pts (max allowed).
http://stats.cricinfo.com/ci/engine/records/team/highest_innings_totals.html?class=1;id=2009;type=year
4. Snooker - World Championship to have a Century scored in the final frame - 9-1
This has occured in the following years: 2009, 2003, 1998, 1995. I'd therefore think it is probably an approx 4-1 chance. I've had 3 pts at 9-1 (max. allowed).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:World_Snooker_Championships
I will be doing reviews over the next 2-3 days of each of the other bookies markets.
P.S. 2 Bets I missed were 'Six 6s in a Internatial Twenty20 Over' highlighted in a comment below at 50/1) - now into 3/1 (priced changed while I was doing my analysis) :( and 'Top Test Indiviudal Score to be > 313'... this was priced at 6/1, now into 5/2. The new prices are just fair.
12 comments:
I'm a big fan of the high test score bet, but wary that Skybet may have made typo. The bet is contradictory, in that the top score was 765 last year, rather than 735. I've back 6 points anyway (my max), but assume I'll have sky emailing me soon to amend.. TE
3. Cricket - Top Test Score to be greater than 735 - 16-1
Who with?
love the murray bet - alas only £37.50 max bet for me
have a great xmas chris - keep up the good work
Good spots - thanks. Particularly like the look of the Murray one. Unless they know something we don't - e.g. about an injury - then Sky are being very generous. Good for them - these New Year specials are usually rubbish value.
Cheryl Cole 5/2 to retain FHM Sexiest Woman in the World. Only 2 hopes imo (Megan Fox the danger). Paddies have Cole 1/3 which i think is a bit short but id mark her around 4/6, so the 5/2 represents good value to me.
Cheers
Wizard
the top test score is for '2009s top test team' which is looking likely to be India.
The wording is ambiguous. The bet (now in to 11-1) states "2009's top Test team score (735) to be beaten 11/1". To me, this is the top test score of 2009 to be beaten. Now the score seems to be 765, rather than the 735 stated in the bet. Thus looks like a typo. Don't believe it refers to a specific team to better the score.
On a different note, the Cavendish to win 7 stages of the TDF in 2010 has disappeared from 33s to N/O. Not sure whether thats a good or bad sign! TE
Ref the top test score bet, Sky have just emailed me to change it to 765. I presume everyone got the same email?!
Others seem to be getting it... I haven't yet...I won't be very happy if I do because I double checked in writing to confirm whether they meant 365 or 315!
got my email. not happy. still consider it value?
Skybet emailed me too about the 765. Would you still be taking this Chris?
I have, but not with any great enthusiasm.
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