As per my post below, although I am fairly convinced Argentina will win tonight, there come a point when a price can simply to big. This is the case with Peru tonight - the 33/1 is too big - I'd make it a 16/1 chance (at most). It is just possible that Maradona will contrive to lose this game via a combination of poor tactics, (unlucky) finishing and weak defending.
4 comments:
Another near miss. Unlucky mate.
Any chance of putting up a P&L make us all green with envy.
Unlucky Chris. Great bet. Opposing Argentina in any way last night was absolutely stonking value. The closer to the off the better, and in-running better still. A few 'money buyers' got very lucky, though the -2.5/2.75 backers must be feeling very silly.
Opposing Argentine was definately the correct stance, although perhaps I should have been less ambitious and laid Argentina at 1.13 (of course, the bet would still have lost).
The bet on Varga (previous post) was an even better (stll losing!) bet - he hit the bar when the score was 0-0 - Extrabet/Bet365 were very lucky to escape from being made to pay for their bad market making.
I'll put up my P + L and the end of the year... it is defintaley looking heathly. Even if I have no more winning bets this year, I still think I will have made a good % profit - I hope it will be > than my 'baseline' 40% ROI.
Yeah, Vargas was an even worse beat. I was on that as well, have backed him 5 or 6 times this season. Copped once for Fiorentina in the Champions League but he's gone close plenty of times. Still often priced up as a left-back for some reason. Lazy compiling.
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