Tour De France - Fabian Cancellara - 100-1 4 pts E/W

This bet is going to go down as one of my most inspired or my most stupid.

Another day, another "Black Swan". Folliwng today's racing of the Tour de France (first day), second placed Contador has strengthed his position at the top of the market. He is a likely winner, but the three week Tour De France has thrown at many suprises in the past during the competition e.g. failed drug tests. I'm therefore not tempted at even money.

Instead, I have had a speculative 4 pts E/W at Ladbrokes at 100-1 on Cancellara (who won todays time trial by 20s). Most people will think this is complete nonsense as Cancellara is considered "just" a time trial specialist. However, he showed in the recent Tour of Switzerland that he can build up a sufficient lead in the time trials to win the overall event (by staying competitive in the mountains).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fabian_Cancellara
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Tour_de_Suisse

Certainly past winner Stephen Roche thinks that a high overall finish is not impossible. Cancellara's (alleged) weight loss of 7 kg may have just been the what is required to stay competitive in the French mountains.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/stephen-roche-tips-contador-and-cancellara-for-tour

This bet complements my 4pt win bet placed last year on Lance Armstrong at 16-1 when he announced his comback (now top priced 13-2).