Saturday, August 22, 2009
Notts County v Dagenham & Redbridge - Dagenham to win - 9/2 - 4pts
Since backing Notts County at 10/1 for the Divison 2 Title pre-season, I've taken a lot closer interest in Divison 2. Notts County are now 7/4 chances, a price which I think is fa too short - I;d make them at least a 5/1 chance. Their opening two wins were against weak teams (Bradford and Macclesfield) and defeat away at Chesterfield mid week showed they should never be such short price for this divison. The only reason they are tis price is the large liabilities the bookies have, having been backed at all rates down from 33/1. Unfortunately, there is little liquidity at Betfair to lay them, so I have taken an alternative approach.
I think Dagenham are too long a price for the Divion 2 at 18/1 at Coral. I'm currently considering backing them outright for the divison, but I'm nervous what Notts Cunty could do in the transfer market mid season. While I make a final decsion this morning, I've backed them at 9/2 away at Notts County today. Dagenham have made an execllent start, winning all three games. Manager John Still has made some astute pre-season purchases and maanged to hold on to (some) of the key players.
The generally availible 9/2 on Dagenham today is too big (it was 5/1 yesterday) - I'd make it a 5/2 chance.