Monday, June 01, 2009

O'Brien Derby Specials -First 4/First 5 in the Derby


The field has been confirmed for the Derby at the 5 day declaration stage and it as as follows (O'Brien horses in bold).

Fame And Glory 3-1

Sea The Stars 7-2
Rip Van Winkle 6-1
Gan Amhras 8-1
Black Bear Island 8-1
Masterofthehorse 14-1

Kite Wood 25-1
Age Of Aquarius 25-1
Crowded House 28-1
Golden Sword 33-1
South Easter 40-1
Montaff 50-1
Debussy 50-1

I think he has a real chance of at least having the first 4 home. (I could probably do some statistical analysis to prove it - any voulnteers?). I have therefore backed two possibilities (not mutually exclusive).

Aiden O'Brien to have the first 4 home - 1pt @ 20-1, 1 pt @ 28-1
Aiden O'Brien to have the fisrt 5 home - 1pt @ 50-1, 1 pt @ 125-1

(The lower prices are still avilible at willhill.com (first 4), vcbet.com (first 5)).

1 comment:

Scott said...

that's assuming six line up though, I reckon they'll run four at most, which would change the odds against you sharply.