Monday, April 17, 2006

Jon Wong - 1st Elimination - 9-1 - Paddy Power Irish (Poker) Open

Vincent Mellin an Ian Woodley have both too many cjhips and to much experience to go out early. Therefore the only other value options are Brendan Ruane, Conor Smth, Jon Wong and Paul Daly

Paul Daly is rightly favourite for first to be eliminated. However, at 1-7 he is too short. To stay in Paul Daly will nee top double up twice, but he will have planned the correct time to move all his chips in.

Brendan Ruane has signficantly more chips than Conor Smith, so he is avoided. It therefore comes down to Conor Smith and Jon Wong, with marginal preference for Jon Wong as, in a head up with Conor Smith, Jon will be out if he loses (which wouldn't be the case the other way around).

I can see Conor and Jon playing perhaps too patiently waiting for Paul Daly to be eliminated.

A much better price is 9-1 on Jon Wong to be eliminated first.

No comments: