Those who read my blog regularly will know I'm convinced that nationally we will have a low turnout. I backed this earlier this year by placing a bet on a turnout of 55% to 60% turnout at 7/1 (20 pts).
Since then Polling eveidence from COMRES stated that
- 44 per cent said they were "absolutely certain" to vote compared with 56 per cent in February 2005; similarly 18 per cent said that they were "certain not to vote", compared with 11 per cent five years ago indicating a low turnout.
- When posed with the statement "I think the result of the forthcoming general election will be close", 70% agreed, with 25 % disagreeing. This would indicate a higher turnout.
I believe this polling evidence has supported my analysis (I think the first piece of evidence above outweighs the second) and the bookies agree. They have now moved 55-60% into 5/1. I've decided to have an additional bet at 12-1 (12 pts) on under 55% at Ladbrokes - I'd hate to be more right than I expected and lose
For another view on the turnout, Mike Smithson has written a piece for politicalbetting.com - he disagrees with me, but it is worth reading for a contrary view to mine.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/02/17/the-great-turnout-quandary/
4 comments:
how did your mourinho bets fair?
anything for chelts?
Both the Mourinho bets were winners.. which has given me some Cheltenham spending money.
How odd. I strongly agree with you, and your blog came up on a google search of 'turnout election uk'. I think backing
Under 55% 12/1
55 - 59.99% 5/1
with Ladbrokes is the way to go. I don't think people appreciate the apathy out there.
Congrats on the results. I haven't quite made it pro status yet and am not motivated enough to make regular blog entries.
Are you going to make Cheltenham posts?
http://mixxilflix.blogspot.com/
I;m still confident that the turnout is going to be under 60% - my thoughts haven't changed since my posts.
I'm going to have some bets on Cheltenham, although I've probably not got much to add to the large amount of info already out there. Also, my Cheltenham record isn't great, so may want to avoid my bets anyway.!
P.S. I'm not a pro, my gambling just gives me handy pocket money and shows that will skill and discipline you can beat the bookie.
Post a Comment