Sunday, February 28, 2010
Reduced voter turnout in GE 2010 (Part 2)
Those who read my blog regularly will know I'm convinced that nationally we will have a low turnout. I backed this earlier this year by placing a bet on a turnout of 55% to 60% turnout at 7/1 (20 pts).
Since then Polling eveidence from COMRES stated that
- 44 per cent said they were "absolutely certain" to vote compared with 56 per cent in February 2005; similarly 18 per cent said that they were "certain not to vote", compared with 11 per cent five years ago indicating a low turnout.
- When posed with the statement "I think the result of the forthcoming general election will be close", 70% agreed, with 25 % disagreeing. This would indicate a higher turnout.
I believe this polling evidence has supported my analysis (I think the first piece of evidence above outweighs the second) and the bookies agree. They have now moved 55-60% into 5/1. I've decided to have an additional bet at 12-1 (12 pts) on under 55% at Ladbrokes - I'd hate to be more right than I expected and lose
For another view on the turnout, Mike Smithson has written a piece for politicalbetting.com - he disagrees with me, but it is worth reading for a contrary view to mine.