Big Brother - 'Any Other' winner - 20-1 2.5pts win

Big Brother is currently sferring from poor ratings. In order to improve these ratings, it looks like that new male housemates will be introduced (who will be eligible to win the first prize). The 20/1 could look very generous if this happens....male competitors have an excellent record with the core voting audience of teenage giirls.

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news_detail.html?sku=2010

Update: Ladbrokes seem to be out of line with their competitors...I have had these additional bets:

1pt - Male winner to be 'Any Other' 33-1
1pt - Female winner to be 'Any Other' 33-1
1pt - Outright winner to be 'Any Other' 25-1

Update 2: I've had a further 1.5 pts at 20-1 at Stan James on 'Any Other Winner'... I'm convinced new HMs will shortly be entering... Ms McCall hinted as much on Friday.

http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/bb/2207_housmates.shtml

Scottish Open - Webster - 2 pts win - 20/1

Post Rnd. 3, Mickleson leads by one shot from Havret. Mickleson (-12) is rightly favourite, however at heavily odds on he has to be opposed. I believe Havret (-11)will struggle under the prerssure of playting with Mickleson so I think the bet has to be Webster in 3rd place (-9) at 20/1. The others playeres at -8 or worse I believe are too far back, 4 shots behind Mickleson.

Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe - Airmail Special - 20-1 - 4pts win

After backing Rail Link last year, I've been looking for a horse with a similar profile and prospective campaign. I've think I've found one in Airmail Express. This horse is trained by Andre Fabre and has been recently purcahsed by Sheilk Mohammed with the ARc as a likley target.

The horse is aimed for the Grand Prix de Paris on Sturday and will then be most likely sent to the Prix Niel. Prix Niel winners have an excellent record in the Arc - a win in this race would most likley make the horse one of the favourites.

Update: This horse has been backed in today from 20-1 to 12-1. The 12-1 is probably a fair price - I'm happy with my 20-1 voucher (see above). Good to see others are sharing my opinion!

Montgomerie next European winner of a major - 33-1 - 4pts

Montgomerie has recently hit form with a third last week and a win this week on the Europen Tour (first win 1 1/2 years). I give him a good chance at Carnoustie for the British Open, where he was 14th the last time the Open was played here in 1999.

The best part of this bet is if Monty doesn't win and no other European wins, this bet rides to the next golf major.

I think that Cabrera also has a great chance at Carnoustie.... I'm thinking of an E/W bet on him later in the week...

Leeds Utd to be relegated from Division One - 25-1 - 4pts

Leeds Utd are currently imploding. It is difficult to call how the latest financial mess will work out, but there is a reasonable possibility that the Football League may deduct points. Alternativley, Leeds Utd may miss games at the start of the 2007-2008 season - either way, with a pts. handicap, 25-1 to be relegated could look at massive price in 9 months time. I;d certainly prefer that price than the 6-4 to be promoted.

Update: The previous bet was at Ladbrokes. I've had a futher 4 point at William Hill at 20/1 at 2pts at Totepsort at 22/1

French Grand Prix - Sutil to finish in the points - 50/1 - 1pt

With forecast rain at Magny Cours, there is the possibility of abnormal finishing positions. An argumanet could be made for backing outsiders E/W at three figure prices, however the it is difficult to pick a single driver (maybe Honda?).

Instead of betting on the ouright market, I've had a bet on Sutil to finish in the points. In practice at Monaco (the only other time it rained) he topped the time sheets. Clearly this combined driver/car combination can handle the rain and a car which would normally be off the pace comes right into the mix.

With rain, there could be as few a 10 cars finishing, meaning that is more than possible for Sutil to get a top 8 finish (certainly no 50-1 chance).

Northumberland Plate - Dr Sharp - 2pts win - 22-1

Dr Sharp has been in poor form this year, but has missed his favoured soft ground. The Northumberladn Plate today will give him his preferred trip/ground and he can spring a suprise.

From his draw, I can see him taking the lead from the off and outstaying the other runners in this easy ground. I'm going win rather than E/W in case his form has really dropped off this year (as opposed to just not having the right conditions).

Not happy that I missed the easily availible 33/1 thsi morning, but the 22/1 (with money back for 2nd place at Paddy Poweris is still good value).

Andrew Murray - SPOTY without Hamilton - 33/1 - 4pts

"I refer the honourable genteleman to the answer I gave some moments ago." Commonly heard in the House of Comnmons, I'm adapting this for the 2007 SPOTY Market without Hamilton. 4 Bookies have opened up on this, so it is time to take a look at this market.

Those of you who read my blog regularly will know that the SPOTY market has been very sucessful for me. Having locked in my Hamilton profits for 2007, I believe there is good money to be made in the "SPOTY 2007 (without Hamilton)" market. The current market leaders (with top prices from the 4 bookmakers who have priced this up) are:

Frankie Dettori - 15/8
Ricky Hatton - 11/2
David Beckham - 10/1
Monty Panesar - 12/1

After that, it is 20-1 Bar.

Fankie Dettori has a reasonable chance as who will probably be pushed by the BBC as they have the Derby as one of their few remaining high profile events to cover. With QoS, Dettori has both a celeberity appeal and another reason for BBC to 'push' him. However, Racing has a poor record in SPOTY and Dettori's achievements has not been outstanding this year so far. Yes, his first win the Derby was impressive but not quite a Frankie 7 when he cam only came 3rd in SPOTY. At these prices he makes no apppeal.

Ricky Hatton is short priced only due to the recency effect having won at the weekend. He is a geat boxer, but just too little knon by the voting public. The low profile of boxers and the fact votes are normally split across several boxers means that he has much less chance than his odds imply.

David Beckham as a chance as he has had a good football season, but footballlers only tend to do well during major championships as they are not helped by playing in a team game. Beckham will also not get full support form a single club (unless US fans start voting!). The celeb factor helops in his favour, but surely there will be bigger sporting achivements.

Monty Panaser has developed a 'cult' following, howveer with no major cricket championships and the fact crickets votes coudl be spread across several players (e.g Pietersen), he makes no appeal.

At a massive 33-1 at Skybet (20-1 at Stan James, as low as 10-1 at Ladbrokes), Murray is a graet bet. I'm having 4pts at 33-1 on Murray. He is a big price as he has just pulled out of Wimbledon (the recency affect again!). However, there is still the US Open to go where he is a 10/1 chance. His attitude could count against him, but if he makes US Open final appearance (5-1 chance?) he would be hard to see out of the top 2 (with Hamilton) - rememeber Greg Rusedski won SPOTY with a US Open Final appearance.

Most tennis votes will go him unless Tim Henman makes progress at Wimblendon.... he is now into teh 5th set with Moya....

Wimbledon Men's Championship - Roddick Back (to Lay) at 20.0 on Betfair.

Fededer is by far the most likely winner of the Men's Championship at Wimbledon. However, he has missed Halle (his normal prep. tournanment for Wimbledon) and, since the Australian Open, has not looked quite as formidable as he normally does. Against this, he will undoutebly raise his game for Wimbledon, as it is a Major on his favourite surface grass.

There is a chance, due the lack of preparation, that he could suffer an early defeat. If not, he is likely to meet Roddick in the Semi-Final. Roddick has a easy quarter and it would be a big surprise to see him not reach the Semi-Final. He won his prep. tournament and seems to be thriving underr new coach Jimmy Connors.

If/when Rodicck reaches the semi-final, a decision can be taken whether to layoff part or all of the stake. Roddick has a terrible record against Federer, so if both do reach the Semi-FGinal it would seem prudent to at least lay back the stake.

The other half of the draw is much more competive - there are 4-5 playesr who could reach the Final. There is an argumanet to be made for backing one of these players E/W (due to the lopsided nature of the draw), but it is tricky to pick the correct player.

Six monthly update on performance.

The statistics speak for themselves:

Performance in past 6 months: Level
Performance since start of blog (Jan 06): +37%

Since the new year, I've placed fewer of the smaller bets I used to place and concentrated on longer term, larger bets. The idea is that this will reduce the 'random factor' of sports. Overall turnover is also reduced.

This looks like it has hit my profitability i.e reduced it to zero! However, my outstanding antepost bets are looking profitable - in fact if you factored in their 'current value' (i.e. if it was possible to lock in profits on Betfair), the profitability looks very good.

Overall, I'm still satisfied with my performance - I've had a number of near misses at big prices and therefore being 'even' over a 6 month period is acceptable.

America's Cup - Correct Score Betting - 5-0

These are the previosu results from the America's Cup.

2003 Switzerland Alinghi won 5-0 New Zealand
2000 New Zealand won 5-0 Prada Challenge Italy
1995 New Zealand Black Magic won 5-0 Young America United States
1992 United States America won 4-1 Il Moro di Venezia Italy
1988 United States America won 2-0 New Zealand Challenge
1987 United States Stars and Stripes won 4-0 Kookaburra Australia

Notice a pattern? It is clear that a win to zero is highly likely. I suspect the reason for this is the 'compressed' nature of the racing final. If 2 F1 cars raced head to head over a 2 week period in a best of 9 tournanment, it is highly likely that one would win 5-0 as one drive/car combination would be relatively superior and would only lose a race by mistake/accident etc. The short time period would mean that there woudl be no time to make substantial changes to the equipment (car/yacht.... almost said boat :) ).

I'm not sure what the outright prices were before the previous finals... the prices this time are approx 4-6 Switzerland, 6-4 New Zealand. Although this may indicate unpredicatability in the outcome, this does not necssarily mean that a 5-0 result is unlikely - just that it is uncertain WHO will win 5-0.

Liquidity in light on Betfair, however I have managed to get on the following bets:

5 pts Win 8-1 Switzerland
0.5 Win 10-1 New Zealand (cover bet)

P.S. Bet365 also bet on this market... I don't dare to to put a bet on with then. 5p?

US Open - Top European (Market Post Rnd 3.) - Petterson - 33/1 - 1.25pts

The market (and current scores) for the Top European at Stan James are as follows:

10/11 Rose (+5)
Evens Casey (+5)
10/1 Fasth (+7)
33/1 Petterson (+9)
40/1 Dougherty (+9)
50/1 McDonnell (+10)

I think any of the 3 longer priced players are value at this venue - it is so easy to drop 4 shots in a couple of holes.

P.S. I'm hoping to post a bet at approx 9 p.m. on a player who posts an early score of approx +6/+7 - I believe this score could win today.

Rugby Union Tri Nations - Australia - 16-1 - 2pts SportingOdds

I'm not a Rugby specialist, but 16-1 on Australia seem to be too big a price for the Tri Nations. I've looked back over past recors and also looked at the current team strengths and I am I'm sure this should be a shorter price. Perhaps I'm missing something?

I wonder if sometimes less knowledge can be better ... you could proabbly spend hours studying Tennis Mens Grand Slams, but I'm sure that you probably need to look no further than Federer and Nadal... all the form analysis and knowledge of the other players is probably wasted.

Jamieson Gold - 9-1 - 2pts -2.25 Sandown

Jamieson Gold will be ideally suited by todays race. He is on a fair handicap mark, the same as when who previously won at Newbury (at 20-1). He has had a prep run to get him fresh and, most importantly, he will be able to handle the soft ground well. Many consider this horse inconsistent. I think this is wrong, as, with soft ground, his form figures are 2-3-1-0. The trip is ideal at 7f and he has previously shown form at this track. At 9-1, I think he is a great bet (hope my judgement isn't being clouded by the fact I backed him at Newbury!)

AS this was a Pricewise tip as well, the price has now gone into 13/2, but it is still reasonable value at that price. Being a Pricewise slection in fact gives me additional confidence in this bet as, during the 2007 Flat season, Tom Segal has hit good form.

US Grand Prix F1 - 2pts Heidfield - 9-2 Betdirect

At present the Mclarens seem to have the measure of the Ferraris, both in qualifying and race pace. In addition, Hamilton/Alonso appear to be a better drive combination than Massa/Raikkonen.

This is largely factored into outright prices. However, I think there is still profit to be had in backing Haidfield in the BMW for a Podium position at 9/2 (at Betdirect). The BMW has been clearly the next best car (after the top 4) and with Kubica injured, I make Heidfield the clear 5th favourite for a Top 3/podium position.

The price difference between Heidfield and Massa/Raikonnen for the podium position is just too big.....I'd have had had 4pts at 9/2 on Heidfield, but Betdirect restricted me to 2 pts. :(

Lock in SPOTY profits (62 pts) - Lay Hamilton at 1.37

After backing the winner of SPOTY 2006 at 11/1 last year, last Christmas, rather than gibving you my heart, I previewed the SPOTY 2007. My sole bet was Hamiltion at 25/1 (4 pts).

http://kickingbets.blogspot.com/2006_12_01_archive.html (look approx. half way down)

I've now decided it is time to lock in 62 pts profit by laying Hamilton at 1.37 for SPOTY 2007 on Betfair. He is clearly favourite at present, but there is still 6 months (and many Sporting events) to go e.g Golf Majors, Tennis Majors and the World Atchletics Championships. There is also the 'celebrity factor' which could give Dettori/Beckham a chance.

This lay off takes away 6 months of uncertainty... still rooting for Hamilton to win the F1 Chamionship though, with 3 pts E/W at 25-1 and 10 pts at 5-1 on a top 3 finish!

(Perhaps I should stick to just SPOTY betting?!).

BTW, at the request of a reader, I will post an update on results at the end of June 2007. This will be a % profit since the start of my blog (Jan 2006-June 2007), for this year (Jan 2007-Jun 2007) and a record of outstanding bets.

Take advantage of Musselburgh draw....

Low numbers have a very strong record in the 3.45 at Mussleburgh. I've therefore had 0.2 pts on each of the forecasts on the following horses (Drwaw 1,2,3).

Selection: River Falcon
Selection: Fullandby
Selection: Handsome Cross

All have reasonable form in what is a tight handicap (i.e. horses weighted to finish close to each other) - the low draw could make the difference.

I'm hoping a winning foresast will pay at least 50/1+.

Next Man City Manager - Graeme Souness - 2pts 25-1

I've a sneaking feeling that Man City may be stupid enough to appoint Graeme Souness. This (once) great club have made poor managerial appointments in the past and I think they have sufficiently poor judgement to make this (absurd) decision.

The imminent takeover puts this appointment difficult to call, hence the folly of taking short prices (e.g. those of you who backed Ranieri at odds on need to hang your heads in shame).

Epsom Derby - take on Authorised with the O'Brien horses.

Authorised is a short price favourite for this race. This based on it's victories in two key trials (Racing Post Tropy, Dante) - however, there were not strong fields for both races. He should like the trip/ground, but Epsom is a unique course so I am happy to take him on.

I seriously considered laying Authorised for a place at 3/1 with William Hill or backing O'bRien to have the winner at 2/1, but instead I've decided to back the O'Brien runners with the following 2 bets

- 12/1 to have the first 2 home (2pts)
- 40/1 to have the first 3 home (0.5pts)

I will have the follwoing horse running for me:

Archipenko
Eagle Mountain
Soldier Of Fortune
Admiralofthefleet
Mahler
Yellowstone
Anton Chekov
Acapulco

If O'Brien can't decide which will do well, I'm not going to try and second guess him! (However, I think Achipenko and Eagle Mountain have the strongest chances, as indicated by their prices).

Monaco Grand Prix - is a shock going to happen?

If there ever is to be a shock in a Grand Prix, it is likely to be in Monaco. The tight curves and (potential) rain means that an upset is always possible. Who can forget Panis in 1996? For this reason, I've placed 0.5 pts (in total), spread across the following drivers, all at 1000-1 (!) (on Betfair)

Jarno Trulli 1000 £2.00
David Coulthard 1000 £2.00
Heikki Kovalainen 1000 £2.00
Rubens Barrichello 980 £2.00
Jenson Button 1000 £2.00
Ralf Schumacher 1000 £3.72
Alexander Wurz 1000 £2.00

This is in addition to the Hamilton (F1) /Wheldon (Indy 5000) double at 16-1 I placed midweek.

If the rain doesn't come, I think the winner will come from Alonso/Hamilton. I'd make the betting a lot closer - Hamiltion at 5/2 is a fair bet. Alonso will probably lead to the first corner, but 4/6 is no value on him for Monaco. Hamilton could easily be carrying more fuel which could give him a critical edge in this race.

In addition, those laying Massa at 12/1 on Betfair could look at little red faced in 3hrs time.

Indy 500 - 5pst Win - 4-1 - Dan Wheldon - Pinnacle Sports

A weak qualifing performance from Wheldon 6th on the Grid) has persuaded Pinnacle Sports to make Wheldon 4-1 for the Indy 500. I'd make it a 2-1 chance at most. He has been consistently fast this week, and never qualifies particularly well. He has been clearly the fastest man this season in Indy Racing.

He is as short as 9-4 elsewhere for the Indy 500. I'm having 5 pts at 4-1 on a Wheldon victory.

Indy 500 & Indy Championship Season Bets

The Indy 500 is the only time that Indy Racing gets decent media coverage (and hence a reasonable number of bookmakers betting on it).

Most of the major bookmakers have opened books on the race. The one bet I considered having was Dan Wheldon at 11/4. However, instead of backing hime for the race (which you always need luck to win), I've backed him at 15/8 to win the Indy Racing Championship. He was unlucky not to win the Indy Racing Championship last year, and has looked clearly the best driver this year (he is leading the Championship). I'd have made him a even money chance (at most). WWinning this race will help in in his chmapionship battle.

http://www.indycar.com

I'm therefore having 15 points at 15/8 on Dan Wheldon for the Championship at Paddy Power - he is closer to even money elsewhere. Look, Bet365 you can take bets if you want to! (Bet365 are 5/4 and restricting me to £1.60 (ONE POUND SIXTY on this market).

I also can't resit a few specialiaty bets from Ladbrokes combining the Monaco Grand Prix the Indy 500 as follows:

4 pts on Danica Patrick to lead at some point in the race at 5/1. She is unlikely to win the race, but given the length of it, there are plenty of opportunities for crashes and hence offset fuel strategies.

3 pts Double on Lewis Hamilton to win Monaco and Dan Wheldon to win the Indy 500 at 16-1. Hamilton has an execllent record at Monaco and this Sunday is the time for this naturally talented driver to come of age. I've outlined Dan Wheldon's chances above.

1 pt Double on David Coulthard to make the podium at Monaco and Dario Franchitti to make the podium in the Indy 500 at 40/1. Coulthard has an excellent record at Monaco (finished on the podium last year in a weaker Red Bull) and his Red Bull has recently showed signs of improved performance (with a 5th in the Spanish Grand Prix). Franchitti has a reasonable podium chance.

England to beat West Indies - 3-1 -10pts (@end of West Indoes 1st Innings)

I'm suprised to see England at 3-1 to win the 1st Test after West Indies have been bowled at on the 4th morning of the 1st Test. I can see England scoring approximtaely 235 and putting West Indies in with 1 hour go go tonight with a target of 350.

A lot will depend on the weather on Monday....not great forecast (hence the price)

My plan will be to lay off on England if they come down to at evens (i.e to be level on the Draw and West Indies and +20 pts on England).

Update: 18:15 Due to the uncertainty around the weather (and the lack of an aggressive declaration), I have closed back my position at 3/1 (i.e. no win/loss)

Spinks v Taylor - Spinks to win on points - 10/1 - Betfair - 2pts

Both fighters have a record of fights going to points (especially Spinks). There is no reason to suspect that the outcome tonight will be any different. Therefore, the two potential bets are :

Taylor - Pts - 5/2
Spinks - Pts - 10/1

While Taylor is the more likely winner on pts., the difference between the prices is to large (I've seen strange judges scoring so many times). For this reason, I'm having 2pts on Spinks to win on points.

FA Cup Final - 2pts E/W Vidic - 1st Goal Scorer - 33-1 - William Hill

With an injury to Carvalho, Essien drops back to the centre of defence for Man Utd. This could leave Chelsea exposed to aerial threats from set pieces. Vidic is ideally placed to take advantage - he has scored four times this season.

I'm having 2pts E/W at 1/2 1,2,3 on Vidic for first goal scorer.

Eurovison Preview (Part 2!)

After the betting disaster of 'Black Thursday' (Switzerland out from Eurovision, Blair deciding to resign end June 07, rather than July 07 (6pts @ 25-1 on July 07 bet 6 months ago!)), like a punch drunk boxer I'm getting back off the floor.

I think I've got two great bets for the Eurovision.

I'm backing Latvia for an outright win at 12-1 (Betfair) (8pts win). I've heard from a number of separate sources that Lativa won the Semi Final. If (and it is a big if) this is correct, this would make them favourites (maybe a 2-1 chance). While I'm not convinced that these rumours are correct, there is a reasonable chance they are.

As to whether Lativa can win, they have a mid to late draw, are part of a political power block (Baltic) and have a distinctive song/act (kind of G4). I underestimated the appeal of this type of act in previous TV reality votes (to my cost).

I'm also having a punt on one of the Semi Finalist to finish last. This is unlikely as they have obviously finished in the 10 top in the Semi Finals (via public vote). However, you are getting 10 runners of the 24 for your money and the 16-1 at Victor Chandelr seems too big. I mkae it closer to a 5-1 chance. I was planning to place 4 points on this, but Victor Chandler have restricted me to 2.5 points.

Draws prevalent in 1st leg of playoffs....take advantage

The amount of draws (39%) in the fisrt leg of the 'playoffs' for promotion in England are much higher than in conventional league matches. This is to be expected as:

- The sides are closely matched
- Neither side wishes to risk losing the first match
- The slightly better side is away in the first match

The 39% rate equates to odds of 6-4. Most bookies are going 9-4. By combining these draws bets in combination bets, the odds advantage is compounded (ironically, exactly what most bookmakers do each week!)

I'm therfore having 0.25 pts on each of the 5 timers (6 bets) and 1 accumalator. Not a large outlay, and a chance of of serious return.

Arsenal to win 2007/2008 Premiership - 16-1 Bet365

Bet365 are going a standout price of 16-1 on Arsenal to win the 2007/2008 Premiership. That is an insult. The correct price should probably be approx. 8-1. I tried to have 10 pts on this online, but the 'betmax' restriction was 30p. I suppoe it is quite an obscure market!

Anyhow, I rang them up and they have (generously) allowed be 1pt win on this at 16-1.

Update: After my attempt to put 10 pts @ 16-1, Bet365 have now cut the price to 12-1. Still a vaule bet, just not quite as good value. It is now clear that a £25 bet has this affect on one of the world's biggest betting markets. Bet365, you should be thorougly ashamed of yourself. Bet like men, not children!

Update 2: The price has now gone into 9-1 from the initial 16-1. What I really need is a bookie who is as incompetent as Bet365 AND will take a proper bet. How can a company like Bet365 get a basic market like this so wrong? And change their prices by nearly 100% in a morning? It is madness for them to have to restrict bets on this type of market - maybe they should give up.

1000 Guines Preview - 2pts Win Simply Perfect (10-1) , 2pts Win Theann (25-1)

My bets are as follows:

2pts Win Simply Perfect - 10-1
2pts Win Theann - 25-1

Although Finsceal Beo has the strongest 2yo form, she is too short at 6/4.

Simply Perfect has been overshsdowed by her stablemate Sander Camillo. However, Simply Perfects's performance as a 2yo the merits respect. With the withdrawl of stablemate Sander Camillo (who overshadowed her), I believe she should be 2nd favourite at approx 5-1.

Theann is Aiden O'Brien's entry and that fact alone means that she she should be considered. Theann ran a respectable race in 5th in the Cheveley Park as a 2yo. In her reappearance at the Leopardstown trial, was only narrowly beaten in 3rd by Arch Swing and has a good chance of reversing places with this opponenet. The step up in trip should suit her as she was doing her best work in the latter stages. On raw ratings she has quite a bit to find, but at 25-1 merits an interest.

No, my name is not Tom Segal! These were selected last night, so it was worrying this morning (from price persspective) so see Pricewise select them.

However fortunately, once taking into account the withdrawl Sander Camillo, the prices I've taken are not signficnatly different from the prices Pricewise tipped at (phew!).

2000 Guineas - Vital Equine - 1pt E/W Boylesports 1,2,3,4 places - 50-1

With the defection of Teofilo and Holy Roman Emperor, this race has taken on a relatiovely open feel to it. My preference is for Vital Equine. He ran a fair trial in the Dewhurst last autumn, and must has a great chance of at least getting placed. He will be suited by the ground, course and trip and should surely be a much shorter price than 50-1.

I would have had 2pts E/W, but was limited to a 1 pt E/W by Boylesports who were top priced (50-1) with favourable E/W terms (4 places).

Update: Vital Equine has drifted to 50-1 at StanJames (who have the same E/W terms), so I've had a further 1pt E/W (taking the total stake to 2pts E/W). In addition, as a cover, I've also had 1pt win on Eagle Mountain (who is also too bigger price at 28-1).

Man Booker International Prize - Preview

Several bookmakers have not opened up on the Man Booker International Prize. The contenders are listed at the official site:

http://www.manbookerinternational.com/about/contenders

I believe that these type of contests are relatively open. The decison in this case is made by small number of judges who may easily have a strong preference for any one of the shortlised authors.

This prize is given for 'lifetime achievement' in literature. It is the 2nd time this award has been made - the first time it went to a (realtively) unkonw Albanian author.

The contenders this time are fairly mainstream. I've slected two against the field, both who have a strong literary career.

Michael Ondaatje - 25/1 - 2pts Win (as short as 8/1 at Paddy Power)
Chinua Achebe - 20/1 - 2pts Win (As short as 5/1 at Paddy Power)

(With a cover of stakes on Margaret Atwood at 14/1)
(All bets at William Hill)

As you can see, bookmakers prices are relatively different. This means that although this is a speciality market with high overounds, by choosing best bookmakers prices you get a 105% book.

Are Bet365 bookmakers?

I tried to place a £25 E/W on a First Goal SCorer bet on the Chelsea V Liverpool match at Bet365 and was restricted to £2 E/W. Last night I tried to place a £100 bet on the Indy Racing and was restricted to £0 (and they then moved the price in of the selection). So my question is

Are Bet365 bookmakers?
	Yes
	No
pollcode.com free polls

Snooker World Championship - 4pts E/W Ryan Day - 66/1

With 2 long-priced winners in the past 2 years, there is no need to be afraid of backing an outsider in the World Chamionship. My initial thought on this event was to back a player E/W in the (weaker) bottom half of the event. However, I've struggled to find a decent priced player who cna make progress.

Instead, I've turned by attention to the top half. I think I've spotted some value in the 'Quarter of Death'. In this quarter, Day plays Robertson, with the winner of this match playing the winner of the O'Sullivan - Ding Junghui contest.

Day has not previously progressed beyond the 2nd round in his 2 previous visits to the Crucible, however he lost in tight matches as follows:

2004 10-9 Higgins
2006 13-10 O'Sullivan

He has played reasonably well this season (his best season yet) reaching the quarter-finals of the Northern Ireland Trophy 2006 and runner up in the Malta Cup 2007, losing 9-4 to Shaun Murphy.

If Day gets beyond the 2nd round (a big if!), he has a great chance of winning the tournament.

Indy Racing League - 4pts E/W Sam Hornish - 5/1 - Japan 300

This weekend is the 3rd round of the Indy Racing League. I'm pleased to see that a 'proper' bookmaker (Ladbrokes) have started betting on this league.

This weekend we are back to an Oval course (as opposed to a street course) which should benefit Hornish and Wheldon. Hornish has qualified in 5th and is consequently a great price for the race. Whedlon should be favourite, but I'd make Hornish the clear 2nd favourite at approx 3-1. Barring accidents, I am confident that Hornish will make the top 3 hence I;m placing amn E/w bet to nothing.

Grand National Preview

The Grand National appears especially competitive this year. This is not good new as I backed the SP of the favourite to be 5-1 or less on 14.02.07 (4pts)

(http://kickingbets.blogspot.com/2007_02_01_archive.html)!

As the ground has softened, I've watched my AntePost fancy Mckelvey be backed into 16-1 (without taking the 50-1, 2 weeks ago). Damm. At the prices now, of the leading contenders you can make strong case for the following:

Point Barrow
Hedgehunter
Mckelvey
Billyvoddan
Dun Doire
Bewleys Berry
Monkerhostin

For this reason, rarher than an outright or E/W bet, I've looked for a bigger price horse to make a place. (Typiclly, bigger priced horses don't actually win the race.)

William Hill have some generous 'place only' prices and I've had 2pts on Thisthatandtother to make the first 4. He has a touch of class about him and the 28/1 is more than fair to make a place. The conventional thinking is that he won't stay (which is possiblly true) but I'd say he was simply unproven over the National trip. Nicholls thinks the 100-1 outright is an insult.

My bet of the race is not in the outright market, but a Skybet special. They make Idle Talk 10-1 to Pull Up. This is a great price - I'd make it substantially shorter. I'd have had 4pst on this but Skybet have restricted me to 1pt. Many horses pull up in the National and Idle Talk did on his last visit to Aintree.

Good Luck All!

Englan to win Cricket World Cup - 25-1 - 4pts Win

England have performed reasonably well so far in the World Cup, narrowly losing to Sri Lanka and Australia. However, the other results have meant that if they win their remaining 3 games against South Africa, Bangladesh and West Indies they will qualify for the last 4. South Africa is the key game - if they win this they are likely to go through to the last 4, irrespective of the other 2 results, via NRR.

The Betfair market on this has South Africa at 6-1 and England at 25-1. England seem a great price at 25-1 - I'm having 4pts win.

Neel Jani to star in Champ. Car.

Although Sebastian Bourdais merits the maximum respect, Neel Jani has a chance of posting some impressive performances this season in his Red Bull powered car. He has been impressive in pre-season testing, typically making top 3 times. Pre-season testing times should not be overly relied upon, but it is probably worth chancing a small investment.

I've therefore had 1 pt E/W on Neel Jani at Stan James at 25-1 on the Championship.

In qualifying for the firat race of the season at Las Vegas, Neel Jani has not qualified particluarly well. However, with Bourdais inear the back of the grid, I believe that Jani is worth an investment.

I've therefore had 0.5 pts E/W on Neel Jani at Stan James at 33-1 for this race.

Update: Though you might be interetsed in this 'Live Chat' with Bet365!

James D: Hello, welcome to bet365 Live Chat. How may I help you?
Chris: Good Afternoon. I've tried to place £25 on Neel Jani for the Las Vegas GP and there seems to be a problem.
James D: What seems to be the problem?
Chris: I have only been offered 30p E/W. That is £0.30. Surely some mistake?
James D: The amount offered to a customer depends on the nature of the event and our Traders’ estimate of the likely profitability of that customer’s business. We are sorry that the amount offered in this case is less than you would like to have staked.
Chris: As in £0.30 vs £25? Do you think 30p is a reasonable maximum size for a bet from one of the UK largest bookmakers?
James D: As I said, I am sorry that the amount offered in this case is less than you would like to have staked.
Chris: Do you think 30p is a reasonable maximum size for a bet from one of the UK largest bookmakers?
James D: I am afraid I am unable to comment on that.Is there anything else I can help you with today?
Chris: Yes, are there any markets where I might place higher value bets? Woudl you take, say, £1 on Premiership matches or would that be too large bet for Bet365?Chris: (that is 100 pennies).
James D: We take each individual bet on it's merit's, so I could not comment on what would be offered on Premiership matches
Chris: My thinking is that your motor traders aren't prepared to stand by their judgement (despite the fact they have the % margin in their favour). Why is this?
James D: As I said I cannot comment on this, it is a trading decision.You were informed of the restriction on your account on the 20th March, and I am afraid these will stand
James D: Is there anything else I can help you with today?
Chris: Lack of confidence in your motor traders is not a trading decision, it refects you confidence in your traders? Why don't you just change them?
James D: As I said, I am not prepared to comment on this further. I will terminate this chat unless there is anything else I can help you with?
Chris: Is there anyway that I can have my limits raised, say to 50p? I know that is a big bet.
James D: As I said, I am now terminating this chat.

From the server records, I know Bet365 read this blog... hi guys!

Malysian Grand Prix - Lewis Hamilton - 1.5pts E/W - 14-1 (Sporting Odds)

The Ferraris and McClarens are clear leaders in performance (with Ferraris in front). However ther is a real possibility that Raikonnen will suffer a 10 place demotion due to an engine change. This gives Hamilton a great chance of a podium finish. If the engine change doesn;t happen, it is still a fair bet.

I *nearly* backed a Hamilton Podium Finish at 2-1, but more speculatively I've gone E/W at 14-1 (with increased place terms). He is as short as 7-1 outright elesewhere.

I'd have had 4pts E/W but I have had my stakes restricted by Sporting Odds.

Update: I've had a further 1pt win at 20-1 at Betfair on Lewis Hamilton.

Indy Racing - Streets of St. Petersberg - 2 pts win Tony Kanaan - 7/1- Stan James

This road course is unsuitable for the oval specialists Wheldon and Hornish. Instead, I've selected Tony Kanaan to win. He has a solid record at this event (consistent top 3 finishes) and this could be his year. He went fastest in qualifying and would have finished on pole, but for crashing. Instead he lines up in 6th place.

His main competitors are the 5 cars in front of him. The most signficant drivers this week are Castroneves (Penske), and Dixon (Target). Either of these could well win but they are much shorter prices than Kanaan (typiclly approximately 2/1 and 4/1 respectively - accurate prices). I think Kanaan will be too strong for his less experienced team mates Andretti and Franchitti, and Manning doesn't have the car under him.

I'd make Kanaan an approimate 7/2 chance ... I'd have had 6 pts win, but Stan James restricted me to 2pts.

Back (to Lay) bet on Charles Clarke - 50-1 - Betfair - 1.5 pts

It look a disctint possibility that Charles Clarke could stand against Gordon Brown in the race for the Labour Party Leadership. He will need 44 MPs to nominate him - whether he gets this will likely depend which of John Macdonald/Millband (if any) stand. I fully understand why he wants to stand - he is not likely to get any sort of poistion in a Brown led government.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1596687.ece

If he does make the ballot paper, I would expect him to trade at approx. 10-1. Can't see him winning so would be a good point to lock in the profit.

New Seven Wonders of the World - Great Wall of China, Pyramids of Giza.

I've taken a look at this market and sportingbet.com.au are well out of line. The 'Great Wall of China' and 'Pyamids of Giza' are 1-20 chances in my eyes (other bookies go top priced 1-33)... these bookies go 1-5 and 1-3. I'm not usually a short price backer, but I'm having 3pts on each, (virtually) risk free. I just can't see how either of them can come out of the top 7. Not going to win much on this, but a small profit is still a profit...just waiting to collect in July 07.

I can't get more on as I've had to open a new account (and they have restricted how much I can be deposited until my identity is confirmed). If I was unrestriced I'd have had 100 pts on each!The upside of this is I've had a free 1.5 pt bet which I have placed on Petra at 11/4 - top priced 7/5 elsewhere. Petra is currently jut inside teh top 7 - 7/5 is probably an accurate price.

More information on this market (and how it works) can be found at:

www.new7wonders.com

Eurovision Song Contest - Switzerland - 8pts win - 8/1

I belive the Swiss have a great chance in this year's Euroviosn song contest in 2 months time. To win Eurovision, you need the following

- Memorable song/routine - Finland showed last year that with the increased number of entrants a memorable stage routine is strongly preferable. I also have looked for a strong chorus. What is certain is you can't win with a poor song (e.g UK).

The Swiss song has a strong chorus and a 'Vampire' based act which could adapt well for a stage show. N.B. It may be a little too similar to Finland's act last year 'Monsters of Rock'.

- Political voting - preference for countries part of Balctic or Scandanavian blocks - the Swiss fall down on this, but at least they are neutral (unlike the UK).

- English singing - this rules out a signficiant no. of acts, although some have attempted to overcome this by at leaset singing the chorus in English. The Swiss song is in English. N.B. Take care on this, some acts sing in qualifying in their country in the native language, only to switch to English in the semi finals/finals

- Semi-Final appearance - I believe the winner of the semifinal has gone on to win this event in the past 2 years... maybe the appearance helps to improve the act. What is certain is that the semi-final results are likley to be translated in final positions. N.B. The semi final resuilts are not released before the final.

Other possibilities at larger prices are Finland (great song) and Israel (memorable Novelty song).

The songs can be viewed at www.eurovision.tv

8/1 is freely available on the Swiss - I missed the 10/1 yesterday :( - in fact, Bluesq. are going 9/1! (oops.)

Update: WillHill have moved the Swiss into 13/2.... I've had a further 4pts at Bluesq at 9/1 - I don't think Bluesq will be able to hold this price for much longer.

Next UK Chancellor - 2pts - 6/1 - Jack Straw - William Hill

Since his move to Leader of the House, Straw was worked closley with Gordon Brow. Today, Jack Straw has been asked by Gordon Brown to lead his campaign for next Labour Leader. This puts jime in a strong position for next Chancellor.

His 2 main rivals are Alistair Darling and Ed Balls. Ed Balls is the most likely of these, but due to his relative parliamentary inexperience (he only changed to an MP from adviser at the last election), I think Ed Balls will be made Chief Secretary to the Treasury.

I tried to have 10pts on this, but was restricted to 2pts! The market was then immediately taken down by Willian Hill. I am sure it will re-open soon.....not sure at what price though.

N.B. Not having a good time with getting bets on at present... tried to place 2opts on Dan Wheldon for IRL Championship at 3-1 with SportingOdds - no joy, however only succeeded in moving the price from 3/1 to 2/1... he won the 1st race last night.

Next Fench Presidential Election - 20pts win - 5/1 - Bayrou - William Hill

I have been closely following the Fench Presidentail polls over the past 4 weeks. The changes can be clearly seen on the following graph (from one of the major polling organisations).

http://2007.tns-sofres.com/evolution-intentions.php

This reslts of this poll have been confirmed by the another major polling organisations.

http://www.csa-fr.com/fusioncharts/presi2007/presi2007.html

I believe that the bookies have seriously misjudged this market. Momemtum is a key element in politics and I am confident that Bayrou can attact enough votes from both the left (Royale) and right (Sarkozy) to make the top 2 - he is nearly there now! I then believe by nature of being the centre candidate he is highly likely to win the final 2 'man' runoff - there is no great liking for either Sarkozy or Royale.

N.B. William Hill have temporarily taken down this market, however I expect it to reappear (not sure what price he will then be). Bayrou is availible at 4-1 at expekt.com - this is still at great price! (He is shorter on Betfair).

Lewis Hamilton - 10pts - Top 3 Season Finish - F1 - 5/1 (Boylesports)

Those of you who follow my blog will know that pre-season I have had 2 bets on F1 for 2007

Hamilton (25/1) - E/W
Kovalainen (33/1) - E/W

This prices are still availible and I would not put anyone off these bets. (I've also backed Lewis Hamilton at 25/1 for SPoTY!)

However, I have now found a even better bet - 5/1 at Boylesports on Hamilton to make the Top 3. Ferrai and Mclaren have been the strongest teams in winter testing. The Ferraris have been slightly stronger than the McLarens, however the difference is not great (approx. 0.3s). This could change as the cars progress over the season.

Hamilton's pace has been similar to Raikonnen in winter testing. He is a naturally gifted driver and I would rather take 5/1 on him for a top 3 finish than Raikonnen (2-1), Alsonso (9-4) or Massa (3-1) for the World Championship. There are so many changes in driver/team combinations and tyres (all now run on Bridgestones) that taking a short price is risky.

Extrabet also bet on this market and have cut the price from 9/2 to 5/2 for a Lewis Hamilton to 3 finish - this is a much more accurate price.

10pts Win - Hilary Benn - Labour Deputy Leadership - 3/1

The field for the Labour deputy leadership election is not yet finalized, but I think that Hilary Benn is a first rate bet at 3/1. The reasons are as folllows (in order of importance):

- Has an approx. 10-15% lead in the latest YouGov deputy leadership poll. The results are as follows:

http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/TEL070101005_1.pdf

YouGov surveyed Labour Pary members and Union mebers, two of the three constituents of the leadership election (MPs are the other). N.B. A complication is that Union votes are not decideded by block vote, but I suspect that union leaders will influence how their members vote.

YouGov has a good record in these events and peformed well when predicting the Lid Dem and Conservative leadership elections.

- Hilary Benn has popular support amongst the general population, as indicated by the YouGov popularity Index where he has the highest ratings of the Labour politicians listed
- Unlike some of the other runners, has declared his intention to run
- His name recognition, being son of the iconic Tony Benn

Candidates need 44 MPs to support them to be able to stand, but I am confident that Hilary Benn will achieve this goal.

Oppose the favourites at Chletenham in the 'Big 4' Races.

I think that the favourites in the four Cheltenham Championship races are all vulnerable, namely:

Champion Hurdle: Detroit City
Queen Mother: Well Chief
World Hurdle: Black Jack Ketchum
Gold Cup: Kauto Star

I am especially against the chances of Black Jack Ketchum (ran an appalling trial) and Kauto Star (jumping issues, not a great record in a large field) with both not guaranteed to stay in their races, especially on soft ground.

Choosing horses to oppose them is more difficult. However, I have selected the following horses - prices all from William Hill:

Champion Hurdle: Sublimity (18-1)
Queen Mother: Dempsy (20-1)
World Hurdle: Kasblah Bliss (16-1)
Gold Cup: My Will (20-1)

I'm having 2pts win on each and a 0.5 pt Yankee (5.5 pts)

Cheltenham - > 6 winners with SP > 16-1 - 8pts @ 5/2

Ladbrokes have formed a market as to how many winners will be priced with an SP > 16-1. With forecast good-soft ground, I would expect that there woudl be more than normal.

The current stats are as foillows:

2006 7/24 odds greater than 16/1
2005 5/24
2004 6/20
2003 3/20
2002 6/20

Given this analysis, I think Ladbrokes are more than fair in offering 5-2 on > 6 winners with SP > 16-1. 5-6 winners is also a lively runner at 2/1, the the others are poor value.

Scotland v Italy - No Tryscorer - 25-1 - 2pts

The last 3 matches between these sides have had 2-1-2 tries respectively. With bad weather forecast, there is no reason the think there won't be similarly few tries today. I think 25-1 on no tries being scored William Hill is more than fair.....

Phil Mickleson to win 2007 Masters - 9-1 - 4pts win

Mickleson has come back to form and is likely to give Woods his most serious challenge in the 2007 Masters. Mikelson is currently top priced 9-1 at present to reain his title. If his current form continues in Feb/March, I expect that he will start clear 2nd fav. at closer to 5-1 (he is unlikley to start any bigger than 9-1).

Harrison v Sprott - Sprott to win in Points - 10-1 - 4pts

'Fraudley'/Audrey Harrison has a woeful record has a heavy weight. His one reasonably impressive performance came last time against Williams, in a fihgt Williams took at short notice. Sprott is no world beater, but if Harrison boxes as he has done previously there is a good chance Sprott can nick this on points.

Starting Price of Grand National Fav. to be 5-1 or less.

In the past 20 years there have been one void National and 4 National favourites 5-1 or less. It is therefore suprising to see William Hill offering 12-1 on a 5-1 fav (or shorter price). With the recent policy from the handicapper of 'compressed' wieights, you could argue that a short priced favourite is less likely. However, jt. favs 5-1 favs last year of Hegehunter/ClanRoyal shows that this may not make a signficant difference.

For this reason, I hoping for a big plunge on any horse... I'm having 4pts at 12-1 on a 5-1 or shorter price Grand National fav.

Murray to win a Masters event in 2007- 9-2 - 2pts.

Murray is making great progress in his tennis career and he has a realistic chance of winning one of the 7 masters events this year. Blue Square have this eventuality at 9-2 - my maths makes it an approximate 2-1 chance (assuming it you think he will play all events and will be an approx 16-1 chance for each).

I'd have had 8pts - howveer, Bluesq have limited me to 2pts.

England to win Cricket World Cup - 16-1 - 1.25 pts win

England are a top priced 10-1, (12-1 to lay at Betfair) except for at Sportsinteraction.com.

These guys are out of line going 16-1... this was the price England was availible at most bookmakers before England's recent return to form. I don't expect this 16-1 to last long....

.... I wanted to place 5pts win, but I've been limited to 1.25 pts :(

0 or 1 Pricewise Winners at the Cheltenham Festival - 3-1 - 8pts.

I've completed some analysis based on the (4 day) 2005 and 2006 Cheltenham festivals, and the bigest price I can make this is 6-4. Ladbrokes who run this market are taking a major chance at 3-1. (This market doesn't include Antepost bets).

Of course, this analysis only stands up if Pricewise (Tom Segal) adopts a similar strategy as the previous years. Actually, you could argue that thie price should be closer to 'Even Money' this year as he there are more short price horses in the Major races (where he already has ante post bets). This limits him to the (tricky) handicaps.

One possible reason for Ladbrokes to adopt this stregay is that if Pricewise has 0-1 winners,. they wil be more than happy to pay out on this market as they will have made a signficnat amount by not paying out to the many punters who follow 'Pricewise'.

Quarterbacks first score value in Superbowl.

Last year I tipped a Quarterback at 40-1 to score fisrt touchown... only for the other Quarterbacks to do so at 40-1! I'm not going to make the same mistake this year, I've backed both Quarterbacks - Manning 40-1 (2pts) and Grossman 80-1 (1pt) respectively.

Manning is by far the more talented, but both have reasonable scoring records.

Mirco Begamasco for starring role in Six Nations.

Mirco Bergamasco was joint leading trscorer (with 3 tries) in last years 'Six Nations'. His career record is 14 tries from 37 appearances, a excellent strike rate.

Italy play the (unpredictable) France today, and are expected to score approximately 1 try. I have therfore placed the following bets at Ladbrokes on Mirco Bergamasco:

4 pts to Score at Anytime - 10/1 (as short as 5/2 at Corals!)
1pt First/1pt Last Tryscorer - 50/1
2pts E/W Leading Tryscorer in Six Nations Championship - 80/1

(N.B. Mirco is not to be confused with his team mate Marco (same surname).)

Liverpool v Everton - 1pst First/1pt Last Goal Scorer - Arteta - 20/1

Mikel Arteta looks overpriced at 20/1 for first/last goal scorer in this match. He has scored 6 gols in 21 games this season. I'm having 1pt on each....

Snooker - Malta Open - Tom Ford - 1pt E/W 200-1

Tom Ford has previously peformed well in this tournament, and is located in the easiest half of the draw. He has yet to reach his full potential, perhaps this could be the week!

Murray to win Aiustralian Open without losing a set.

I'm generally not one for fun bets (=losing bets in general) but I can't resist 1pt on Andrew Murray to win the Australin Open without dropping a set at 300-1 at William Hill. Go Murray!

Boxing - Morua v Witter- Murua to win on points - 16-1

Witter's last 4 fights have finished on points. Murua's last 10 fights have finished on points. Despite what Witter says (i.e. that he will provide an early stoppage), these facts point towards a points finish. In this case , Witter is the most likely to win (and is a even money chance to do so), but Murua is overpriced at 16-1 to pull of a surprise and take this match via the judges.

I'm having 2 pts on a Murua pts win at the generally availible 16-1.

Date Blair ceases to peform Prime Ministerial Duties

This week the Prime Minister announced he would be attending the IGC at the end of June 2007. This makes me even move convinced that he will not cease his Prime Ministerial duties in May (a 1.72 chance at William Hill).

I have previously had 6pts at 25-1 on July - this is now a 12-1 chance, but still a great price. I'd make him a 2-1 chance to leave on this date. I also previously had 1 pt on August (50-1) and September (33-1). These prices are still availible. I am coming to the conclusion that there is a possibility that Blair may string this out to the Party conference (end Sept. 2007) to ceremonially hand over being Premier at a formal occasion. The other benefit to Blair is that the longer he waits, the longer the possibility a challenger will appear against Brown.

I have therefore had a further 2pts at 33-1 for him to leave on in September 2007

This of course could be derailed by the Cash for Honours inquiry e.g if he is arrested on a PCJ charge or the report to the CPS is negative (and published), but I think that both of these scenarios are unlikely.

Next US President - Barack Obama - 9-1 - William Hill - 10pts

I have previously backed Barack Obama at 16-1 to be US President. This week, Obama announced on hs website (http://origin.barackobama.com/video/) that he was establishing an Exploratory Committee, the fisrt step to mounting a Presidential Challenge. He is due to make an final decision on Feb 10th 2007, and then stated he 'looked forward to continuing our conversation in the weeks and months to come'. This to me looks like he will run for President.

A recent poll for the Democratic Nomination make him close to Hilary Clinton (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Political%20Tracking/Democratic%20Primaries/DemocraticPrimary.htm), with the other runners far behind (although another poll I've seen this has Clinton still 10pts ahead. Both these polls were taking before Obama's announcement, from which he should get a lift. I thinks that this will be a two horse race for the Democratic nomination, with the momemtum at present in Obama's favour. (His use of the internet for the announcement is impressive).

At many bookies he is approx 9/2 for next President (which I think is the correct price), so I've had 10pts on Obama at 9/1 at William Hill. I see him as the next JFK (who overcame the supposed *electoral* handicap of being Catholic (he was the 1st non Protestant president) -Obama could do the same for being a non White candidate.

N.B. William Hill are taking a stance in a number of markets in politicl events and are happy to take proper sized bets..one of of is gone to be a serious loser!

Celebrity Big Brother - Danielle Lloyd (100/1), Jo O'Meara (100/1) 1pt Each

With the malign influence of Jade Goody disappeared, Danielle and Jo a chance of re-establishing their credibility. Neither received many nominations this week, and, as has already been seen, these markets has history of rapidly changing favourites/outsiders.

I;ve had my money on Betfair, so I have a chance laying off if either goes into single figures.

Australian Tennis Mens Open Preview

Federer is a prohibitively short priced favourite at best priced 2-5. His record in this Grand Slam event is the weakest of the Grand Slams, excepting the French Open. He is of course the most likely winner, however there is much better E/W value in the other half of the draw.

Nadal was out of form in the 2nd half of 2006, so is no value at 8-1. In the forth quarter his much difficult openents will be Blake (20-1), Hewitt (50-1) and Murray (40-1). Blake has a tough first round match against Moya - if he gets through this he has a great chance of reaching the final. Therefore at this stage he is probably best avoided. I still have doubts regarding Murray's fitness, therefore with a relatively hard draw, he may lose in the last 16 (Nadal) or last 8 (Blake) if either match goes to 5 sets. Hewitt is not the force of old, although he will be motiuvated for his 'home' event.

The 2 top 8 seeds in the 3rd quarter are Nalbandian and Davydenko. However, both have injury doubts so there is some great value to be found. My preference is to have 1pt E/W on both Soderling (100-1) and Malisse (125-1). This event has a recent history of haveing a least one big priced finalist.

Soderling has been steadliy improving. He has the game to suit hard court tennis and good recent hard court form, losing in the Doha semi final in 3 sets (on a tie break) to eventual winner Ljubicic. The onw worry is whether he has the right psychological make up - he seems to lose too many games when he is playing the better tennis (e.g against Ljubicic in Doha).

Malisse reached 2 hard court semi finals last year and also has good recent form, winning in Chennai beating Nadal in the semi-final.

Chelteham Gold Cup - Halcon Genelardis - 33/1 2pts E/W

If the ground at Cheltenham comes of soft (or heavy), I believe that Halcon Genelardis will start a much shorter price than 33/1. With the current climate conditions and the casualties caused by faster ground last year, these softer conditions are a real possibility.

If it is soft ground, not only will it suit Halcon Generaldis there are several horse it will be a problem for. Kauto Star (7/4) may be one of these, staying up the Cheltenham hill is always a true test of stamina. However, the reason I'm not backing Kauto Star is because of his jumping... I don't think he will make it around, probably falling at the 3rd last - anyone want to give me a price on this?

Halcon Genelardis produced a great performance win the Welsh National (for which he had be layed out for by Alan King, a trainer for who I have a high respect). Through a line with Juveigneur, Halcon Genelardis has a similar form to Hennessy winner Stae of Play, who is half the price (although State of Play is more verslatile in terms of different types of ground he can run on). It is these type of progressive horses that I also focus on for the Gold Cup.

Halcon Generladis is scheduled for a re-appearance in the Wetherby and Christopher (formerly the Pillar) later this month at Cheltenham where he will face Ou Vic, another horse I think has a good chance. By running Our Vic less often often they seem to have found the key to this horse, alkthough I don't fully trust him yet. If Haclon Genelardis beats Our Vic on good-soft ground in thsi race (which I think is a real possibility), he could be into approx 10/1.

Update: The 33/1 has now disappeared, but there is still plenty of 25/1 availible.

Next Premiership Manager to Leave in 2007 - Mourinho - 33/1 (Corals)

I've had a 'cratfy' 1pt on Mourinho to be the next Premiership Manage to leave in 2007. Things appear to be going from bad to worse in his relationship with Chelsea. It is likely that he will leave in the summer (I'd make it an odds on chance now), but there is a possibility he will leave earlier than that e.g to Real Madrid if Capello leaves mid season and Mourinho is offered the Real Madrid position.

As regards other Premiership managers leaving , there are no other obvious candidates.... if one qwas to leav, it would have probably of happended at the start of the mid season transfer window.

N.B. If no manager levaes this season, this bet is settled as a loser.

Update: This market has now been pulled by Corals.... will probably re-appear at the end of the day after todays games have been played.

2.40 Sandown - Tolwoth Hurdle - 1pts WIn Load Baskerville 200/1 (Betfair)

Small fields on heavy ground can throw up suprise results.

Lord Baskervill goes well fresh, is fine on the (heavy) ground and was progressive last year. 200/1 is a bit of an insult. He will need to improve, but is not any lbs off the market leaders on ratings. The main worry is the trainer is currently out of form.

Mourinho NOT to be Chelsea Manager at End 2007 - 6/1 (Corals)

Mourinho's contract expires this summer. There are a number of reasons for thinking that he will then leave:

- relationship with Abramovich & Kenyon. As a result of the 'Gallas' affair (and over other matters), neither realtionbhsip is strong.
- Mourinho is strong willed and, if things start turning againist him, is unlikely to back down against Abramovich/Kenyon
- Mourinho walked out from his first appointment
- Chelsea are doing well this year at present (by their high standards).

I've had 3pts at 6/1....

Aus v Eng 5th Test - Man of the Match - Glen McGrath (7/1) 4pts (cover Shane Warne (5/1) 1pt)

The Sydney Cricket Ground (SCG) is the location for the 5th test in the Ashes. Given England's diamla record, I expect that an Australian player (most likely a bowler) will win MoM.

This is Glen McGrath and Shane Warne's last test and both have a reasonable record at the ground (which is 'spinner friendly'). I expect one of these 2 individuals to win the MoM. As SCG is Glen McGrath's home venue (and Shane Warne won the last MoM on his home ground), preference is for Glen McGrath, with a cover on Shane Warne.

My staking plan is as follows

4pts Glen McGrath - 7/1
1pt Shane Warne - 5/1

These prices are availible at Ladbrokes. Just missed the 10/1 at Blue Squeare, the other bookmaker who has opened on this market.... other bookies are running scared.

In Which Month Will Tony Blair Step Down From His Duties As Prime Minister?

William Hill have priced up 'In Which Month Will Tony Blair Step Down From His Duties As Prime Minister? '. I believe this market has been seriously mis-priced.

I think the most lilkely scenario is for Blair to stepdown from leadership of the Labour Party in May 2007, after the local elections and after 10 years in charge. He could at this point also step down as Prime Minister. The most likely scenario for this (simultaneous) resignation to happen is if their was a 'coronation' (of Brown).

However, a left wing MP has already indicated he will stand against Brown, and there is a possibility Reid will as well, triggering a leadership contest. Whilst a leadership contest takes place, I believe Blair will retain his position as Prime Minister. With an expected 8 weeks for the leadership contest, my thinking is that Blair will cease his duties as Prime Minister in July 07. This is confirmed by the (well connected) political correspondent of 'The Sun'.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2006410396,00.html

A strict reading of the Labour Leadership rules would be that a resignation would be followed by an appointment at the Labour party conference in Sept. 07.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/5177180.stm

The prices they have are as follows (Month, Price) : May 1.57 April 4.00 March 8.00 June 15.00 February 17.00 July 26.00 September 34.00 October 34.00 January 34.00 August 51.00 Any Other 51.00

Therefore my staking plan is as follows:

6 pts - July - 25/1
1 pt - August - 50/1
1 pt - September -33/1

N.B (i) This market is very different from the Betfair market which is 'When will Tony Blair officially cease to be leader of the Labour Party?'
N.B (ii) The book closes at 5:30 p.m. today. (Although it may be re-opened)

Leonardo di Caprio (The Departed) - Golden Globe (20/1), Oscars (11/1)

The Golden Globe best actor nominations have been announced and they are as follows:

Forest Whitaker ( The Last King of Scotland )
Peter O`Toole ( Venus )
Will Smith ( The Pursuit of Happyness )
Leonardo Di Caprio ( The Departed )
Leonardo Di Caprio ( Blood Diamond )

Although being nominated for two films may be seen as a handicap, I stil think Leonardo Di Caprio is in with a chance against the (long odds on) favourite Forest Whittaker. Forest Whittaker has the critics backing at present, but the (low number) of Golden Globes judges have a record of choosing major stars for their award.

I'm having 1pt @ 20/1 (Victor Chandler).

If he wins this award, he will be much shorter for the forthcoming Oscars (for which the Golden Globes are a strong predictor), so consequently I'm also backing him at 12/1 for the Best Actor Oscar (Bet365/Sportsinteraction .... do they have the same odds compilers?)

Order of Merit - 2pts E/W - Voy Por Ustedes - 20/1 - Stan James

Kauto Star is justifiably a short priced favourite for the OoM. However, given his short price (4/9), there is E/W value to be had elsewhere. My preference is for Voy Por Ustedes, the favourite for the Quenn Mother.

Enroute to the Queen Mother, he is likely to take in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury which should be relatively straightforward (unless Kauto Star switches to this race from the Aon Chase).

To win the OoM, Voy Por Ustedes will need Kauto Star to not complete for the rest of the year (not an impossibility given Kauto Star's jumping). However, to get placed in the OoM Voy Por Ustedes will just need to put in some solid performances. The 2m divison looks realtively week this year - his competitors in the OoM are mainly hurdelers (which seems a much more competitive divison).

King George VI Preview

Kauto Star is too short at 4/7 for this event. His jumping is not perfect, and will be fully tested around Kempton. There is also a doubt as to the nature of his Haydock and Sandsown performences - are they really the special performances that most believe?

Racing Demon also has jumping issues. Monet's Garden is much the best bet of the favoured horse, however he will need to improve a little to take this race and his reluctantly passed oer at 4-1.

Instead my two bets are as follows:

Monkehostin - 4pts win, 20-1 (Betfair). I think he has a reasonable chance of reversing form with Racing Demon on their last running - last year Monkerhostin reserved his best for Kempton (i the King George) when he was narrowly beaten by Kicking King.

Ollie Magern, - 1pt win, 40-1 (Betfair) - a front running horse (a charactersitic that suits Kempton), need to return to form to take a part, but it wouldn't be the greatest suprise ever if he took a major part in this race.

2006 Review - 49.79 % Profit

The headline figure of 49.79 % tells the story of my first year. I was aiming for 40%, so I am more than happy with this figure. (This includes all bets I have placed - if you only select all post placed on this blog before the event, this figure drops to 37.69 %). The reason for the discrepancy is that I sometimes see 'last minute' bets e.g Rail Link on the PMU in the Arc.

Whichever figure we use, I am happy with my performance. I'd be interested if anyone knows of any blog that can beat either these figures (or get close to them!) ... I want to read it! I would any wish those in the print/new media listed % profits (or losses) it would make it so much easier to know who to read! (i.e. whose judgement to trust)

Previously, I've been asked to post my results - I've an .xls with these, filtered by 'settled bets' and ordered by sport. Comments much appreciated! If you'd like a copy, email me at chris.trinder@gmail.com for a copy (unless someone can tell me how to place an attachment on a blog. other than an image!)

Finally, thanks to thebetfairtrader.blogspot.com for giving me an metion on his blog - it made my day!

http://thebetfairtrader.blogspot.com/2006/11/betfair-betting-blogs.html

'More of a tipping blog than a Betfair trading one, but one I like to read anyway, is Kicking Bets written by a guy called Chris. Been going for a nearly a year. Can't find the latest results but I think he's showing a 40 something or other per cent ROI. Perhaps not the biggest from a trading perspective but I think you'll be hard pressed to find an out and out tipster with better results'.

Aus v Eng 4th Test - Man of the Match - Shane Warne - 4pts @ 6-1 (William Hill)

Australia are strong favoutrites to win this match, meaning an Australina player is likely to win Man of the Match. The ground is very much a 'home ground' for Shan Warene and he has a good bowling record here.

In addition, with Shane Warne announcing his imminent retirement frm test cricket, there will also be sentimental reasons to giuve him the award.

'Level Out' on Matt Dawson for SCD - lock in minimum 30 pts profit.

I'm going to lay Mark Ramprakash to take an (approximately) neutral position and lock in a (minimum) 30 pts. profit. Having backed Mark at 16-1, I would read the outocme this Saturday as a 'toss of the coin' job. Mark and Matt have been recently consistently 1 and 2 in the public vote (the only vote that will count this week) and the only time we have been certain of the order they finished in the public vote, it was Matt above Mark.Mark has not been consistent the best with his dancing, so he may not get the judges highest ratings (not that this will have a huge impact). Zoe Ball (last series) and Emma Bunton (this series) has showed the consistency of pro/anti voting for individulas, irrespective of their performance.I appreciate the polls have Mark a clear leader, I think they may be wrong.

Update on Presidential Betting 2008 - New Bets (Guiliani 16-1, Gore 33-1)

As you can see from the above poll, the polling figures have changed a little since my last review one month ago. The key moves are as follows:

Republican Candidate - It looks increasingly certain that Rice will not stand for the Republican candicacy. Guiliani has moved from 28% to 29%, McCain drops from 26% to 24% and Gingrich moves up from 7% to 13%.

I think Guiliani is great value at 16/1 for the Presidency, and I've had a further 6pts at 16-1 at William Hill.

Democrat Candidate - Clinton has strengthed her position, her support moving from 31% to 37%. Obama has dropped back from 19% to 15% and Gore has moved from 9% to 15%, now tying with Obama.

I've looked closely at Gore's position on the Presidency and he does not rule this out (although he isn't 'planning to stand', and easy get out). He has kept his profile very high with his enviromental campaigning and has the funds to mount a successful Candidature / Presidential campaigns. Clinton is clearly the most likely to be the Democratic Candidate, but 33-1 on Gore for President in 2008 is a great bet in my opinion.

I am having 6pts win at 33/1 on Gore for the Presidency (William Hill).

If Clinton does take the Democratic nomination, I think that either Guiliani (or McCain) willl be a very strong challenger. Guiliani's positions on social matters will win over potential Democratic voters (while not dropping to many Republican vites as they have nowhere to go). In contrast, it is unlikley that Clinton will take many Republican votes due to the fact she so strongly polarises opinion.

Complete Record of US bets.

10 pts Guiliani Next US President 16-1 (still availible, Willian Hill)
6 pts Gore Next US President 33-1 (still availible, William Hill)
5 pts Obama Democratic Nominee 8-1 (top price now 5-1, Ladbrokes)
4pts Obama Next US President 16-1 (top price now 9-1, William Hill)

2007 Sports Personality of the Year Preview - Lewis Hamilton - 4pts Win - 25-1

Most of my success this year has been in long term/antepost markets (especially in 'specialist' markets). With my recent win in the SPOTY 2006, I thought I'd take a look at SPOTY 2007.

Preview of the 2007 SPOTY.

Looking at past trends, the most likely winners of this event are as follows (in order of significance):

- Athletic Champions out Olynpics/World Championships
- England Football peformance (e.g World Cup/Qualifying)
- Winner/Runner Up in F1 World Chamionship
- Tennis Grand Slam Winner/Runner Up

There are other possibilities if:
1. The individual dominates their sport e.g. Nick Faldo (1989), Steve Davis (1988)
2. The individual plays a key part of a team performance (Wilkinson (2003) - Rugby World Cup, Flintoff (2005), Botham (1981), both Ashes).
3. Special reasons (Philips (2006)) - Royalty

Lets consider these trends in turn for 2007

Athletic Champions (e.g at 2007 World Chamionships in Osaka)
Winning the event is a must. (Winning) success has been limited in major chamionships recently. Difficult to call at this point, probably best to wait until the events has happened (or just before). Would need to be a realtively high profile event. The most obvious candidate in Paula Radcliffe. N.B. For Ante Post betting 9 months ahead, injuries are always a problem.

England Football peformance (e.g World Cup/Qualifying)
Unlikely to provide winner in 2007 - this rules out a signficant no. of the field! Footballers have only a likely chance in World Cup/European Championship years.

Winner/Runner Up in F1 World Chamionship
The only likley possibilities are Jenson Button and Lewis Hamilton.

Tennis Grand Slam Winner/Runner Up
Andrew Murray is the most likely although there is a small chance of Tim Henman making an impact at Wimbledon.

Outside of these key areas, there are

- Golf - Major winners (my be enough in a weak year, especially given the length of time when a British player last won a Major). Would probably be easier to back this individual has they came into contention in the last few holes (or after they have won the tournament)
- Cricket - Ashes - if we win/retain the Ashes (unlikely), there could be a heroic performance, especially by Monty Panesar who the public have taken a liking to.
- Boxing - Boxers have had a previously good record, but that has fallen off recently - Audley Harrison is a possibility of he wins the Heavy Weight Championship at end 2007.
- Rugby - World Cup 2007 - the weak England Performance will likely count against a winner in this category. In addition, you would need pick a single indiviudal from the team, always tricky.

Summary

At this point, I woudl suggest that the only clear candidates are as follows:

Andrew Murray (8-1)
Paula Radcliffe (16-1)
Jenson Button (16-1)
Lewis Hamilton (25-1)

As per a previous post, I predict that Lewis Hamilton will do well in F1 this year - he is already testing impressively for McClaren, one of the three leading F1 teams. The upside is the fact he does not need to win F1, a 2nd place would probably be enough. The only downside is the possibility of split F1 votes with Jenson Button - unlikely, unless Jenson Button is also challenging for the championship.

I've therefore had 4pts win on Lewis Hamilton at 25-1.

I'll be keeping a careful watch on:
- Any Bristish golfer winning a Major (or looking likely to)
- England progress in the Rugby World Cup 2007 (especilly if an indiviual is is playing a 'starring role)
- Grand Slam progress of Murray/Henman

Most importantly, any Gold medals in high profile events at the World Athletic Chamionships - this is probably the key event. I will add any of this classification of World Athletic Championship winners to my 'portfolio'.

The key to getting value on this market (as all markets) is to react quickly if a player in one of the above key categories wins (or looks likely to win). Typically the SPOTY market first lags a little, then overreacts. The market 'overshoot' can be seen by the number of SPOTY 2006 runners who traded at (very) short prices 1 day after they had won their event.

Lay Alan Pardew - 4pts - Next West Ham Manager

One of my least inspired bets... I've watched many 'Next Manager' Markets and there are freuently several likely cnadidates that trade at approx 2.0 - 3.0. Not worked in this case though!

N.B. This post is after the event, just trying to kep this log an accurate reflection of my betting, so I have an accurate record.

Full analysis of my betting to follow over Christmas!

4pts win Arsenal to beat Chelsea 6-1 (Betfair)

Asrenal are overpriced at 6-1 top beat Chelsea. Chelsea have a great record at home and Arsenal are missing Henry, Gallas and Toure, but should still not be 6-1. Much will depend on whether Chelsea set out to attack Arsenal - if this happens, Asrenal have the ability to hit Chelsea on the counter attack.

Arsenal's weak away form this year has been against physical temas such as Bolton - if Chelsea adopt this approach, they are likely to have more success.

3.10 - Arcalis - Cheltenham - 1pt win 33-1

With a small field, and soft ground, a surprise could happen in this race. I think that Detroit City is overrated, so there is value in the other runners. The 5-2 on Hardy Eustace has disapperaed, so I'm backing Arcalis at 33-1. He showed signs of come back to form in his last race, and, on this form, he is not many lbs behind Hardy Eustace and Detroit City.

2.40 - Tikram - 2pts win - Cheltenham (22-1, Betfair)

After an excellent 2nd to Dempsey in Jan 06, Tikram's form tailed off last year. Tikram has changed trainers over the summer to Alan King and I belive this in-form trainer can revitalise him. Tikram won't want the ground too soft, but can go well off a relatively low handicap mark (previoulsy won off this mark) . He has solid Cheltenham form (won the Mildmay of Flete in 2004 and 2nd in this race the same year), always expecially important for Cheltenham. The trip (2m 5f)will also hold no worries and has won fisrt time out in the past

A big danger is Reveillez (in terms of 'trends' he has all the 'tickes' in the boxes, but I am going to stick to one bet, Tikram).

2pts E/W - 25-1 - Lewis Hamilton - 2007 F1 Championship

Lewis Hamilton has the chance to be one of the oustanding drivers of this generation. He succefully won the GP2 championship last yesr, a clear indication of his ability. He partners F1 Champion Alonso at the Mclaren this year. Hamilton is 25-1 and Alonso 2-1, too bigger price discrepancy in my opinion.

Full details on Hamilton can be seen on Wikipedia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis_Hamilton

I've now 2 drivers against the field (Lewis Hamilton, 25-1 and Kouvalainen, 33-1).

2pts Win - Steve Davis Premier League 20-1

Ronnie O'Sullivan is a worthy favourite for this, but at a best priced 1.4 (Betfair) he makes no appeal. Instead, I've sided with Steve Davis to win the tournament. He is in great form at present and, with the added advantage of playing on Behalf of Paul Hunter, will be motivated. He plays Ronnie O'Sullivan in the Semi Final.... however, Ronnie O'Sullian could potentially turn up in the wrong frame (sorry!) of mind. The added bonus is that I think that Jimmy White has a chance in the other semifinal (against Dott).

Man Utd. v Everton - Everton to win 14/1 (Betfair) - 2pts

I don't nortmally back in football matches, but on a couple of occasions recenetly I've missed some real value bets (typically big 'drifters' pre-match on Betfair).

I believe this is the same situation tonight in the Man Utd v Everton game. Man Utd. are playing a weakend team. Of course, Everton are also missing some key plaayers but at 14/1 they have to be chanced (9/1 at conventional bookmakers).

2.35 Becher Chase - Dunbrody Millar - 2pts win - 18-1

I have the utmost respect for Clan Royal, but I think at 18-1 Dunbrody Millar is a great price. His 4th in the Topham last year (over a too short trip) shows his liking for these (special) National fences. He is only 4lbs higher than when winning the Agfa Diamond Chase, and his trainer Peter Bowen is currently in form. Dunbroody Millar's form talied off at the back end of last year, but he will and will benefit from a recent run.

NFL - Dallas v Indianapolis - 1pt 40-1 Romo First Touchdown.

Indianapolis are susceptible to touchdowns form Quarterbacks (have conceded 3 this year). Although he is yet to score a touchdown this year, Romo (Dallas QB) is probably overpriced at 40-1 to score the first TD. I'm having 1pt at 40-1 (Stan James).

N.B. The last 1st TD bet I had was on the Superbowl final... and I picked the wrong QB (the other scored first!)

Giuliani - Next President of USA - 2008 - 4pts 16-1 - William Hill

It is early days (just after Mid Terms), but the graphic above from www.pollingreport.com shows that each party as 2 main candidates. I've already backed Obama at 8/1 for Democratic Candisate and 16/1 for President. I'm adding to this 4pts at 16/1 (William Hill) on Giuliani - he is as short as 11/2 at vcbet.co.uk . He is not certainty to run, but at least he has submitted his Presidential nominee papers!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rudy_Giuliani

Where will Beckham be at the Start of Prem Season 2007 - 0.5 pts Retired

Beckham's contract at Real Madrid expires in Summer 2007.

Skybet have opened up the market 'Where will Beckham be at the Start of Prem. Season 2007 '

The President is keen to re-sign him but Beckham is not getting much football action from manger Capello at Real Madrid and has consequently stopped contract negotiations. Beckham may still stay at Real Madrid, but 7-4 is not a massive price - I'm not sure he will re-sign without guaranteed first team football (whcih he won't get). MLS in the US have lifted the salary cap for one 'star' player (for players such as Beckham) but 2-1 is not a big price either. He could come back to British football, but I think that is unlikely - I'm not sure he would want to play against his old club (which wouldn't rule at Rangers/Celtic, but they aren't quoted). You also need to specify a specific club, which is tricky.

Therefore, I believe the vaue is 33/1 on Beckham retiring. He is now in his early thirties and if he doesn't get a good offer, there is no need for him to continue (it is not as if he needs the money!) He is not being picked for England (and unlikley to be under McClaren), so that is not a factor. He may also suffer an injury, also terminating his career.

I'd make retiring a 10/1 chance.... if Skybet had allowed me I'd have had 2 pts - I've been restricted to 0.5 pts.

Britain's Greatest Living Icon - Stephen Fry - 20-1 - 0.5 pts

The BBC Culture show is running a poll for Britain's Greatest Living Icon. 2 bookies have opened books on this, Skybet and Paddy Power. There is is significant discrepencies between their prices. For me, the value bet is Stephen Fry at 20-1 - I'd make him a 4-1 chance. He has cross age/gender appeal and I believe will appeal to the viewers of the Culture show.

If Paddypower had allowed me, I'd have had 4pts win - as it is, I;m restricted to 0.5 pts. N.B. The other runner at a too big price is 6-1 on Paul McCartney at Sporting odds. However I'm restricting myself to one bet - it is possible that market could be manipulated by a campaign, most likely for a musician.

Full list of runners:

Sir David Attenborough
Michael Caine
Stephen Fry
Sir Paul McCartney
David Bowie
Vivienne Westwood
Alan Bennett
Morrissey
Kate Bush
Kate Moss

Macdonald Brothers - 1.5 pts win - XFactor - 66/1 (Betfair)

Something very strange is happening in X Factor... I believe that the Mcdonald brothers can go far, despite not being the most talented (although they are improving). The reasons for this are:

i) Block Scottish vote c.f past X Factors.
ii) British voters love an underdog - Simon's continual tirades against them is only encouraging people to vote for them

This may mean that they have an outside chance... and many trading opportunities.

P.S. Ray Feardon left SCD last night (16-1) , 2 weeks after I tipped him at 33-1. A poor dance and the race factor did for him...just got my timing a little out.

Update: I've had a further 2 points win at 33/1 (Ladbrokes). Now the voting is only down to the public.... this coudl be close.

Mexico GP - Dan Clark - 1pt Win 20-1

With AJ Allmendinger and Paul Tracey having exited Champ Cars, the way is clear for Dan Clark to make an impact. He will need luck to play a part, but at 20/1 he is a fair price to win tonight's Mexico GP.

Hennessy Gold Cup - Antepost - Star de Mohaison - 8/1 (Ladbrokes) - 4pts win

To win the Hennessy, you need to be a young, progressive horse who fully stays 3m+. Star de Mohaison fits this bill perfectly. Running (and winning) a (hurdles) prep race at Cheltenham is also a plus... the only worry is the 11st 8lb he will need to carry (due to his high official rating). However, if he is a Gold Cup horse in the making he should be able to carry this weight.

Owner Robert Odgen's Racing Manager seems keen to send him to Newbury. If he makes the day (which is likely), I can see him starting at approx. 7-2.

Saturday Racing.....

2.40 Chelt. 4pts Win Tumbling Dice @ 18-1 (Average Odds.... now availible at 20-1 on Betfair!)
3.45 Chelt. 1pts E/W Barrow Drive (40-1) (Betfair)

Barack Obama - US Democratic Candidate - 5pts - 8-1

Barack Obama has taken the US political scene by storm in the past 2 weeks (Time covers etc.). I think he will play well with the Democrats voters... he has a JFK feeling about him.

His main rivals are Hilary Clinton and Al Gore.

Although I've missed the fancy prices, 8-1 is more than fair - I think he should be closer to a 5-2 chance. If he stands (which I think is likely) I believe he will beat Hilary Clinton. I think Hilary Clinton is underpriced at 11/8. Although she is likely to stand, she has the strong negative that she voted for the Iraq war (Obama voted against it). This could turn out to be the key issue in the next Presidential election (not the economy, stupid!)

She also polarises voters in the way that Obama doesn't - in current polls, Obama has a slight lead.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama

Come on Iowa 2008!

Update: After the Mid Term elections, I've also added a furthe 4pts win on Barack Obama to be the next President at 16/1 at William Hill. After his commenst on the Larry King show, I am more than convinced than ever he will stand . There is still the hurdle of Hilary Clinton to overcome for the Democratic nomination and, if he gets this, the 'race factor' for the Presidency. However, 16-1 is too big.... I'd make him an 8-1 chance.

F1 Grand Prix Championship 2007 - Kovalainen - 33-1 2.5 pts E/W

Kovalainen has a great chance of at least getting placed in next years F1 Championship. I've found 33-1 at sportsintercaction.com (he is generally a 16-1 chance). Unfortunately, they have only allowed me to place 0.5 pts E/W :(

He was test driver for Renault last year (after coming (narrowly) 2nd to Nico Rosbery in the Gp2 F1 feeder series the previosu year).

He is driving a Renault car and should out drive Fisichella. Renault and Ferrai are currently the 2 leading Manufacturers so a place finish (at worst) looks likely.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heikki_Kovalainen

If anyone finds a bookie offering 33-1 who will take an additional bet, please let me know... I'm keeping my eye out as well. (Not all bookies have opened up on the 2007 F1 Championship yet).

Update: Bet365 have opened a book and priced Kovalainnen at 33/1 so I've added a further 2pts E/W (and updated the title)

Emma Bunton to be evicted from SCD - 0.5 pts, 100/1

Emma Bunton has apparently had disagreements with her dancing partner. This will hinder dancing practice (reducing the judges votes) and public votes (as was seen last week - the public don't vote for 'moaners'.)

If she finishes mid divison, a shock coudl be on the cards- she is available at 66/1 for eviction at the bookies.

Breeders Cup Bets.

I've now completd my study on this event. However, I will post my bets approx. 5 mins before each raced. The reason for thsi is I wamt to have the choice of:

Inductry SPs (not likley)
Befair Prices
American Tote Prices

I've selected 2-3 horses per race, I'll make my final slection(s) depending on the prices availible just before the off... I think I may have some horse that will go off at 3 figues prices!

5.30 1.25 pts Win - Satulagi - 33-1..... can do a 'Wilko', the more adventerous could do worse than back her in running... if she wins, she will come from behind on the long straight.

6.10 0.5 pts Win - Malt Magic - 80-1 - highly regarded by legendary trainer Bob Baffert, there are excuses for his run in the G2 Norfolk after a scintillating previous performance. Could be anything.... so 100-1 is a fair price.

6.55 No bet - I really hope Ouija Board wins, not I'm not confident - she'll need to be at her best.......Update : Oujia Board wins!

7.35 1pt Win - Attila's Storm - 33-1 - I believe that a high draw is a benefit in this race (Update : I'll ignore stats in future), therefore my 2 against the field are Siren Lure and Attila's Storm. Sligt prefernce is for Attila's storm as, although Siren Lure is more progressive, Attila's Storm is 5 times the price. He is a front runner who just might never be caught...

Oops.... I thought that it was coincidence that the first 2 dirt races were won by Draw 1... and then in the 3rd dirt race, the horse from Draw 1 wins again at 14-1! :(....... I'm going to keep a watching brief now until things are clearer.....

8.15 No bet - I think that Aragorn as a good chance, but is not a massive price at 4-1. Update Aragorn 2nd... back to the dirt.

8.55 No bet .... Update: Drawn 1 has flown in again (on the Dirt) at 16-1! Unbelievable... it s like Chester!

Carl Johanneson vs Femi Fehintola - 2pts Fehintola to win om pts - 12-1 (Ladbrokes)

Fehintola has won most of his fights recently on poitns (admitedly over shorter distances). Johnanneson is a definite favourite for the fight (and rightly so). However, most of his recent fights have been KOs in early rounds. If the fight progresses to later rounds, Fehintola has a decent chance of nicking this on points at (a more than fair) 12-1.