Friday, March 27, 2009

Lewis Hamilton to fail to win a race in F1 2009 - 2.5 pts - 5/1 Bluesq


As has been well documented, there have been many changes this year in the F1 rules and regulations. This has meant the likelihood of a radical change in points achieved is perfectly possible. With the McLaren cars looking currently uncompetitive, it is unlikely that Hamilton will win a race early in the season. McLaren will clearly be working hard to improve their car, but with limted testing this year they may well struggle. The 5/1 at Bluesq on Lewis Hamilton not winning a race this year is good value - I'd have made it a 3/1 chance.

F1 Season to be decided in Abu Dhabi (Final Race of Season) - 1.5 pts (William Hill)


6 of the last 8 F1 Championships have been decided at the last race of the season. At present it seems that the F1 Championship is competitive, so it seems as likely as ever that the Championship will be decided on the last race (at Abu Dhabi this year). Skybet go 11/10 on this happening. The 11/4 at William Hill is oustanding value - I've tried to have 6 pts on but have been limited to 1.5 pts. I'd make it a 4/6 chance - Skybet go 4/6 on it NOT happening.

Sunday, March 22, 2009

NASCAR - Food City 500 (Bristol) - Carl Edwards - 12-1 - 4pts Win - expekt.com


Carl Edwards has a reasonable record at Bristol and showed his car is working well by finishing second in last night's race in the Nationwide series. He qualified poorly for tonights race, but these places can easily be made up in a race. The 12-1 that expekt.com are quoting to win the race is more than fair - I'd make him an 8/1 chance. Remember, although form is temporary, class is permanent!

Porto to win Champions League - 66/1 - 2pts E/W Coral


Can Porto get past Man Utd? Possibly - Man Utd have suffered a dip in form and Porto are currently first in the Portugese League (admittedly not the strongest league).

By backing Porto E/W for the Champions League, you get 66/1 for the win part (a fair price) and 22/1 if they finish second (Coral offer E/W terms of 1/3 1,2). This compares favourably with the 14/1 they are being separately quoted to make the final. Hopefully they will meet Villarreal in the semi final!

Saturday, March 21, 2009

Villarreal - 6pts E/W Champions League - Ladbrokes - 28/1


As much as it pains me to write this (being an Arsenal supporter), Villarreal are value in the Champions League 2009 Market. Although we are down to the last eight, some bookies are still offering E/W terms of 1/2 1,2. I've therefore backed Villarreal at 28/1 (2pts E/W) at Ladbrokes.

Villarreal are currently 4th in La Liga. The win part of the bet is a fair price, but I can't see they are a 14/1 chance to make the final - I'd make it a an approx 8/1 chance (it is 10/1 on Betfair) . They should not be significant outsiders against Arsenal and there is always the possibility that Porto will beat Man Utd in the other Quarter Final. I asked Ladbrokes online for 4pts E/W but they restricted me online to 2 pts E/W. I've therefore but the 4pts E/W on at one of their shops! (Making a total of 6pts E/W).

P.S. I've also had 1.5 pts on Dunfermiline to win the Scottish FA Cup at 28/1. I think this should be a 14/1 chance.

Grand National Favourite - 'Any Other' 20-1- 1pt


I've taken a look at the Grand National in anticipation of having an AntePost bet. However, I have found it is a very competitive field with no stand out bets at present. Instead, I've taken advantage of the competitiveness of the market to have a bet in Skybet's 'Who will start Grand National Favourite' market. They have listed the following horses.

My Will
Butlers Cabin
Black Apalachi
Character Building
Comply Or Die
Big Fella Thanks
Rambling Minster
King Johns Castle
Hear The Echo
Snowy Morning
Cloudy Lane

With two weeks to go,there is plenty of opportunity for a unlisted horse (e.g. Southern Vic, State of Play) to significantly shorten (e.g. if they are tipped by a Racing Tipster). I've there backed 'Any Other' at 20-1.I tried to have 5pts,but Skybet limited me to 1pt.

Saturday, March 14, 2009

Jenson Button to win F1 Championship - 60/1 - 6pts win


UK Bookmakers have caught up with the possibility that Jenson Button might win the F1 Championship this year. The 40/1 I took earlier this week has long since disapperaed - 10/1 is now the the biggest price you can now get with UK Bookmakers.

However, our friends across the pond have still not woken up to the performance of the Brawn GP car. US Bookmaker Sportsbook (http://www.sportsbook.com) are still offering 60/1 on Jenson Button forthe 2009 F1 Championship. I have had 6pts ($200) at this price (plus $20 bonus for opening an account). I'm sure this price won't last long (especially now I've mentioned on this blog!).

I'm not yet convinces that Brawn GP is the 'real deal' but the UK bookmaker prices are probably the most accurate i.e. 10/1 looks approximately the correct price for Jenson Button.

Friday, March 13, 2009

4 or More Favourites to win at Cheltenham (Friday)


I believe the favoured horses today have excellent chances at Cheltenham. I'm therefore backing at Paddy Power the 33/1 that 4 or more favourites win today (1.5pts). The added bonus is Joint/Co Favs count as the SP Fav.

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Formual One 2009 - Brawn GP to outperform expectations


With a sizeable number of rule changes in F1 2009, there is the possibility of a previously underperforming F1 team making significant progress (and catching Mclaren/Ferrari). Honda (now Brawn GP) 'wrote off' 2008 and concentrated on preparation for the 2009 season. This coudld have been an inspired decision.

The financial problems with Honda should have had a negative impact, but (Mercedes powered Brawn GP) have been outstanding in testing this week at Barcelona. Testing times should of course be treated with caution, but I'm prepared to take a chance on Brawn GP being 'the real deal' at the availible prices.

http://www.formula1.com/news/headlines/2009/3/9009.html

I've therefore had the following bets:

Button to win 2009 F1 Chamionship - 6pts E/W - 40/1
Barrichello to win 2009 F1 Chamionship - 2pts E/W - 125/1
Brawn GP to win Constructors Chmaionship - 2pts Win - 80/1

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

National Hunt Chase - Parsons Pistol - 4 pts win 12-1


Parson Pistol has strong stamina, which should mean that he sees out the trip when stepping up to 4m in the National Hunt Chase (and could potentially improve). His form is strong with a recent 3m Grade 2 win at Naas. Noel Measde has given him a break since his last race and (apparently) is confident of a big run. My one reservation was the past performance of Noel Meade at the Cheltenham Festival where he has a poor record, however with Go Natives's victory yesterady I am less worried.

In summary, I believe Parsons Pistol has an excellent chance in the National Hunt Chase. I think he should be a 7-1 chance - I'm having 4ps at 12-1.

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Coral Cup - Larkwing - 2pts E/W 50-1


Larkwing is a horse that runs to very different races (without any obvious reason/explanation). He has recently being running against high class hurdlers and has not been disgraced. I'm hoping that he runs to his top form tomorrow, in which he will have a live chance and would make a mockery of his 50-1 price (maybe the longer trip will help?). N.B. I've had 1pt E/W at 50-1 (4 places) and 1pt E/W at 40-1 (5 places).

Champion Chase - Mahogany Blaze 100-1 - 1pt E/W 1/4 1,2,3


Master Minded is a worthy favourite for the Champion Chase at 1-3 and I wouldn't put anyone off backing him. However, he does make the shape of the market good for E/W bets. I've selected Mahogany Blaze at 100/1. He has a chance of overturning form with Petit Robin from the Victor Chandler at Ascot - the 100/1 looks a fair price for the win. He is currently trading at 10/1 for a place on Betfair, so the 25/1 you are getting on the place on this bet seems excellent value.

Supreme Novices - Torphichen - 11/2 - 4 pts Win


With rumours flying around regarding Cosuin Vinny, there has been sustained market weakness in this runner for the Supreme Novice Hurdle. I've therefore backed Torphichen (the second favourite) with Paddy Power (who return losing bets if Cousin Vinny wins). I believe Torphichen has an excellent chance receiving the 8lb 4yo allowance - his defeat of Trenchant at Sandown is strong form (Trenchant subsequently defeated Ainama).

Monday, March 09, 2009

Champion Hurdle - Brave Inca 2pts E/W (1/4 1,2,3) - 33/1 William Hill


With forecast rain tonight, there is every possibility that the ground tomorrow on the first day of Cheltenham will be soft (even if it is described as good to soft!). This will have a signifcant affect on the chances of most horses. One horse who would benefit from softer ground would be Brave Inca. He has a an oustanding record - he was the winner of the Champion Hurdle in 2006 was also placed in 2005 and 2007.

He showed he was back close to his best when winning the Irish Champion Hurdele in January (after a long layoff through injury, hence why he missed the Chamion Hurdle in 2008). The one concern is his age - he is 11 and Champion Hurdle winners are typically 7/8. However, the 33/1 is an insult - I'd make him a 16/1 chance at most. I've backed him E/W at 33/1 at William Hill, but if Bet365 accepted bets from me, I'd have backed him at 25/1 (paying 4 places).

Sunday, March 08, 2009

MASCAR - Kolbal Tools 500 - Jamie McMurray - 1.5 pts E.W 28-1 (1/4 1,2,3,4)


Jamie McMurray has been unlucky in the early races of the season (a mechanical problems, other drivers crashing into him (twice)). However, this week he could be set for a good finish (top 4 us very much acheivable). He qulaified in third showing his car has pace and this high qualifying position should enable him to avoid mid-pack trouble. He has previously shown reasonable form at this track with a run of top 15 finishes. The 28-1 is generous - I'd have made him a 14-1 chance. N.B. There is 33-1, but only with bookmakers who have effectively closed my accounts due to to my success).

Monday, February 23, 2009

Champions League - Real Madrid - 16-1 - 3.5 pts win - Coral


New manager Ramos has significantly improved the peformance of Real Madrid. They are now defensively much more strong, whilst retaining their attacking ablility (as demonstrated by their recent results). I think they are execllent value at 16-1 - I'd make them an 8-1 chance. Barcelona are woeful value at 3-1. I'm therefore having 3.5 pts at 16-1 on Real Madrid.

Sunday, February 22, 2009

NASCAR - Jamie McMurray to outperform expectations


I believe Jamie McMurray has been underrated by the bookies. He performed well in the second half of the season last year and I am confident he will make the 'Shoot Out' for the top 12 drivers with 10 races left. I've therefore backed him at 66/1 (4 pts E/W) for the Sprint Cup Championship. The 'Big Three' of Busch, Edwards and Johnson are rightly the clear favourites but I believe Jamie McMurray is amongst the strongest drivers behind them. I'd have made him a 20/1 chance (which is what he will be if he wins tonight).

I think McMurray will start a run of good performance tonight with a strong drive in the Autoclub 500 at Fontana. He is on the front of the grid (having qualified in third). McMurray can follow up his strong performance last week at Daytona when he was running in fourth when taken out in the big crash. I've had 2pts E/W at 20/1 - I'd make him a 10/1 chance.

Saturday, February 21, 2009

Misc. Cheltenham Festival 2009 Specials.

Around this time of year, Cheltenham speicals start to appear at the bookies. I've found three that I like the look of - if you see any you think might be value, please post in teh comments.

Favourites have a poor record at Cheltenham so you woudl expect me to be recommending outisders. However, this year I think that the favourites for the 4 Championship races are all relatively strong. These are Binocular (Champion Hurdle), Master Minded (Queen Mother), Kasbah Bliss (World Hurdle) And Kauto Star (Gold Cup)

Therfore, I have backed (for 4 pts) the 4 timer with Betfred at 20-1. (I'd make this an approx 16-1 chance).


In the Champion Hurdle, Binocular is a strong favourite. If he is a good as many think he is, there is a possibility he can win by greater than 10 lengths. Skybet quote 16/1 on this. It has happened twice in the past 20 years (Istabraq and Rooster Booster). The shape of the betting market means that it is slightly more likley to happen this year than an average year. Against this, there are potential stamina doubts with Binocular, so the horse may be held up. Combing these two factors makes me think this is an approx 10-1 chance. I've has 2pts at 16-1.


Master Minded is a rightly a very strong favourite in the Champion Chase. I think the only horse who is likley to approach him in ability is Big Zeb trained by Colm Murphy (who has a very strong Cheltenham record). I've therefore backed the Straight forecast (Master Minded to beat Big Zeb) at 5-1 at Stan James (2 pts). Id have made it a approx 7-2 chance.

Friday, February 20, 2009

Racing Post Chase - Battlecry - 2pts E/W 25-1


Nigel Twiston Davies is back in form and therefore I think his runner Battlecry has an excellent chance at 25-1 in the Racing Post Chase tomorrow. (I think he should probably be a 12-1 chance). The course, distance and ground should suit and previous poor runs when Nigel Twiston Davies was out of form means he gets into this race on a handy handicap mark.

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

UEFA Cup - PSG - 66/1 2pts E/W


PSG are currently 2nd in Le Championat behind Lyon and are currently in good form (6 wins in the past 7 games). I think they are overpriced at Coral's 66/1 and I have had 2pts E/W.

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Cheltenham Champion Hurdle - Catch Me (33-1) 2pts E/W - Blue Sq. NRNB


Binocular is a strong favourite at 6/4 to win this year's Champion Hurdle. However at this price, I've no desire to back him Antepost. Instead, I'm backing Catch Me at Blue Sq. at 33-1 (E/W). Blue SQ are the first major bookmaker to go Non Runner, No Bet (NRNB) on the Chmapion Hurdle (i.e stakes returned if the horse doesn't make the lineup). Thsi is a key reason for backing the hosre at this bookmaker (when others go 50-1) as, at the moment, it is unclear whether the horse will be sent to the Champion Hurdle (2m) or the World Hurdle (3m).

He runs tonmorrow at Navan in he 2m5f Boyne Hurdle, but I'm not convinced a final decision will be taken until the 5 day declarations. What will probably determine the final decision is the state of the ground - if it is soft or heavy, I think he will run this horse in the Champion Hurdle.

I believe Catch Me has a a reasonable chance of at least getting placed in the Champion Hurdle. He was 6th last year in this race and 3rd the previous year in the Ballymore Properties Hurdle.

West Indies - 3rd Test - Man Of the Match - Steve Harmison - 2pts win - BlueSQ


The 3rd Test ('replacement' for 2nd Test) is played at ARG which has a high paced pitch. This means that Steve Harmison is likely to be recalled in place of James Anderson (who would have played in the 'cancelled' 2nd Test where the pitch was slower). Harmison will be fired up to take wickets to try to retain his place - I think the 25/1 is excellent value to be Man of the Match. I'd have made it a 12-1 chance (I certainly wouldn't make him the outsider). I've had 2pst at 25/1. N.B. If he is a NR, stakes returned.

Saturday, February 14, 2009

Cheltenham Gold Cup Preview - Air Force One - 2 pts E/W 33-1, Notre Petre 2pts E/W 50-1



As Cheltenham approaches, I will be starting to have a few Ante Post bets. I have decided to have my first Ante Post bets in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Kauto Star is a short price at 7/4 to regain his crown (this rarely happens). With Denman underpeforming last week after his layoff through a heart problem (he is now 5-1), I think there is value to be had.

The two horse I have backed are Air Force One at 33/1 and Notre Petre at 50/1. These horses work well on different ground states (Notre Petre will act relatively better if the Ground is 'Soft'. Air Force One will prefer it 'Good').

Both horse were scheduled to run in the Irish Hennessy Gold Cup. With the race having been postponed one week, Air Force One has been pulled out. This could work in his favour as the trainer thinks his below par performance in last year's Cheltenham Festival was caused by the proximity of his prep race (I think it may have been caused by a poor round of jumping). The horse is well and is likely to take his place in the Gold Cup line up (he won't now have a prep race). Air Force One ran well in the Newbury Hennessy Gold Cup (2nd to Madison De Berlais). Although the form of that race has not worked out especially well, the winner Madison De Berlais showed he is a class horse by winning at Kempoton last week. A subsequent below par run by Air Force One in the King George should be discounted as the run was too bad to be his true running.

Notre Petre won the Welsh National and if the ground turns up soft, has a great chance. The Welsh National has a good record in providing Gold Cup Winners - Master Oats and Cool Ground both won both races. He is an improving horse and would not need to improve significantly from his current rating to take a hand in the finish of the Gold Cup (if his ground conditions prevail). He is a 3/1 chance for the Hennessy tomm0rrow - if he wins that (or goes close), he is very likley to go for the Gold Cup and could start at approximately 10/1.

Update: Between placing my bet on Notre Petre and writing this blog entry, he has been backed for the Gold Cup (due to a positive write up in the 'Weekender'.) 25-1 is now the biggest price avilable. The 33-1 is still available on Air Force One.

Saturday, February 07, 2009

6 Nations - Top Try Scorer - 2pts E/W Mirco and 2pts E/W Mauro Bergamasco



Mirco And Miro Beragsmaco both have fair scoring records in the Six Nations. In 2006, Mirco was joint winner (at 200-1) with 3 tries. In 2007, Mauro was joint 4th (100-1) with 2 tries. I've had 2pts E/W at 100/1 on each of them. N.B. Mauro starts as Scrum Half today v Emgland. However, this could work to his advantage as much as hinder. The one concenr is the Italin coach insisting on not drafting in 'foreign' players, but at 100/1 you can't have everything in your favour!

Friday, February 06, 2009

Oscar Betting 2009 - Best Picture, Actor and Actress

I have been singularly unsucessful in my Oscar bets in the past. However, undaunted, I'm trying again in 2009. My thoughts as follows:

Best Film - this will probably go the 'Slumdog Millionaire', having won all the major awards leading up to the Oscars. However at a top priced 1/5 it is too short. (Golden Globe winners have only won three times in the last eight years). I've backed the only other film I belive has a realistic chance (which actually has a higher no. of nominations) 'The Curious Case of Benjamin Button'. I have taken 9/2 (6pts win).

Best Actor
- the bookies make this a toss up be between Mickey Rouurke (The Wrestler) and Sean Penn (Milk). I have a sneaking suspicion that Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon) may have a chance with his superb peformance as Richard Nixon. I've backed him at 8/1 (4pts win)

Best Actress - Kate Winslet is very poor value at a shade of odds on. I think her performance accepting the prize for best Supporting Actress at the Golden Globes will not be forgotten (and the fact it was for Supporting Actress, not Best Actress at the Goldden Globes in a bad omen). In addition, British Actresses have a bad record in the Best Actress category. There has been money for Meryl Streep who has come into 7/2. What puts me off backing her is the low conversion rate from nominations to wins. Desspite thsi 7/2 is a fair price. Instead, I've backed Angleine Jolie to spring a suprise for her mesmerising peformance in 'Changeling' at 16/1. Actresses playing 'real people' have a strong record and she is the only one this year who this applies to. Ive had 4pts win.

Update: Apologies, I had the Category of Best Director when I mean Best Film. I've changed the post to read Best Director. However, I think the Best Director Category could well go to David Fincher (Director Of Benjamin Button) so I have so I've had 6pst on this as well (hope this makes sense!).

Sunday, February 01, 2009

Deshea Townsend - Superbowl - MVP - 150/1 1pt


I generally try to think for myself, but as I know nothing at all about American Football, I'm going to have to trust the judgement of others. Nick Halling in today's Racing Post makes a case for Deshea Townsend at 150-1 to be MVP in tonight's Superbowl. The logic is that he can make key interceptions from the opposing QB. I've had a (very) speculative 1pt at 150-1 (100-1 is currently availible)

US Masters - Mike Weir 2.5pts E/W 80-1 (Totesport)


Mike Weir has an excellent Masters record with impressive results in previous years (even when he has been out of form.) His Masters results are as follows:

2003 Won
2004 Missed Cut
2005 Tied 5th
2006 Tied 11th
2007 Tied 20th
2008 Tied 17th

Despite a missed cut this week, he has been clearly showing a return to form with his latest 2008 results being as follows:

7/27/08 RBC Canadian Open T5
8/10/08 PGA Championship T42
8/24/08 The Barclays T7
9/01/08 Deutsche Bank Championship 2
9/07/08 BMW Championship T67
9/28/08 THE TOUR Championship T6
10/19/08 Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospitals for Children Open T10
10/26/08 Frys.com Open T4
12/21/08 Chevron World Challenge presented by Bank of America T14

Last week he was 3rd in the Bob Hope Classic, showing a continuation of his 2008 form. I think he has an excellent chance of (at a minimum) of getting placed in the Masters this year. Who knows what Tiger Woods will turn up after his injury?

Results from 2008


Attached above are my results for 2008, together with comparisons with 2006 and 2007. The results are not as impressive as previous years (30% ROI compared to 50% in 2007), however compared to other investments (houses, stock markert etc.) they don't hold up too badly!

Anyone else know of a blog that has been running for three years and/or has a average ROI of 40% across that period?! Most blogs seem to only post their results after the events and typically die off afeter a few months. If you have any blogs you would recommend, please post them in the comments.

I'm looking forward to 2009 - I have already taken some very healthy positions e.g Postmouth to be relegated @ 50-1 (now 5/2) and a Jockey to be in the Top 10 of Sports Personality of the Year 2009 @ 50-1 (now evens)

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Is Todd Carty the new John Sargeant?


After being 'cruelly' robbed with my bets on John Saregent, I'm backing Toddy Carty to win Dancing on Ice (DoI). I've paid little attention to DoI and hence have missed the 'fancy prices' (66/1) but after last weekend's performance (see below), he surely is in with a great chance.

I believe Toddy Carty could have momementum to win this competition. The conventional widom is that 'joke' candidates lose (at best) in the final but I think Todd Carty can defy this. Possible downsides are a withdrawl (c.f. John Sargeant), injury or the public giving up on the joke.

I make him (at most) a 5/1 chance. I've had 5 pts (£125) at 20/1 (across several bookies due to limits on my accounts).

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=R40z-PAjzBA

Sunday, January 18, 2009

Tour Down Under - Lance Armstrong - 16-1 - 4 pts win


Lance Armstrong is quoted at a dismissive 16-1 by Stan James for the Tour Down Under. I think they are taking a big chance with quoting him at this price (as short as 9/2 elsewhere, 8-1 to lay at Betfair). Armstrong has stated he is in peak fitness (well, more fit than his last Tour De France ride). He has also stated that he is not here to win. In my opinion, this is 'Alex Furguison' style mind games. Frankly, Armstrong does not know the meaning of not giving 100% to try to win.

Friday, January 16, 2009

Ali Carter to beat O'Sullivan 6-0 (66/1) or 6/1 (28/1) - 1.5 pst on each

Although O'Sullivan is supremely naturally talented anooker player, breaking your cue does not strike me as someone who is fully mentally focussed on this tournament. Ali Carter has played well this year and won 6-0 against Peter Ebdon in the last round (I should have backed that!). I am taking a chance that O'Sullivan loses the first couple of frames and effectively 'throws in the towel'. I've therefore had 1.5 pts at 66/.1 on Carter to win 6-0 and 1.5 pts at 28/1 on Carter to win 6-1 (both at PaddyPower).

Saturday, January 10, 2009

Scottish Cup - Dunfermline - 2.5 pts E/W 150/1, Aidrie 1pt E/W 500-1, Ross County 1pt E/W 500/1


Surprisingly, in the past ten years only once have Rangers and Celtic contested the Scottish Cup Final. When you think about it, that makes sense as for both to be present they need to both avoid each other until the final and not lose any games. However, as Rangers and Celtic take so much % out of the book, there is E/W value on the other teams to make the final.

Last year, Queen of the South showed that, with luck with in the draw, a Divsion One team can make the final. In fact, on a significant amount of occasions in the last ten years, at least one Divsion One team have made the semi-finals.

I have backed three Division One teams in the last 32:

- Dunfermiline (2.5 pts E/W) 150-1
- Airdrie (1pt E/W) 500-1
- Ross County (1pt E/W) 500-1

(Some bookies are 1/2 1,2 but they had lower prices and also would only take low bets from me!)

By spreding my bets, I have a stromger chance of getting one team into the final an winning the 'place' part of the bet. If any of the teams play each other, it is not a major diadvantage as at least you guarantee a team through to the following round.

This week, in the last 32, most of the Div. One teams are playing Premiership Teams, making (amking them unlikey to qualify to the next round). The exceptions are Dunfermline and Aidrie. Dunfermline (second placed in Division One) are playing fellow Divsion One team Clyde. Dunfermline are likely to get through this match, putting them into the last 16 (4/5 to win the game). Airdrie are a weaker Divsion One Team, but are more likely to progress in this round (1/3 for their game today) as they have a relatively easy drwaw in this round.

Finally, although Ross County are playing Premiership Hamilton, they have a reasonable chance of progrsssing as Hamiltom are not a strong Premieship side and Ross County are at home (although Ross County are still outsiders in this tie at (12/5).

Update : My intial post at 10 a.m. was jsut Dunfermiline - at 12 midday I added Ross County and Aidrie! The logic still remains the same.

Monday, January 05, 2009

Update: Taylor to win all 8 TV events 2009 - 4pts - 50/1 - Skybet


Having backed Taylor at 33/1 to win all 8 TV events at 33/1 at Stan James, I'm suprised to see Skybet open up this same market at 50/1. I appreciate 8 events is a 'Big Ask' - Taylor will be especially vulnerable in the early rounds of the some of the events where fewer sets are required to win. However, 50/1 is an insult against one of the greatest sporstmen of our era - a 7-1 drubbing of van Barneveld yesterday in the PDC World Chmapionship shows Taylor is right at the top of his game.

Sunday, January 04, 2009

Chancellor on 31st Dec 2009 - Ed Balls - 5pts Win 25/1 - Ladbrokes


Labrokes have a market as to who will be Chancellor on 31qst Dec 2009. If Brown calls a General Election (and loses), it is quite possible that the Chancellor will be a Conservative, most likley George Osborne (8/1). However, I suspect Brown is unlikely to call an election in 2009 if it will result in a Conservative victory, therefore the most likely Chancellor is a Labour Chancellor.

The most likely Labour Chancellor on 31st Dec. 2009 is the present incumbent, Alistair Darling (4/6). However, if things start to go wrong with the economy recovery plan from Labour, it is possible he will be replaced. In my opinion, the most likely person to replace him is Ed. Balls (25/1). As Brown's Economic advisor when Brown was Chancellor, Balls is idealy placed to take the role of Chancellor now Balls has some ministerial experience. I would expect thsi to happen during a reshuffle around the time of the Labour party conference in Sept. 09.

The other possible scenario is a government of 'National Unity' with Vince Cable (20/1) being appointed, however I think this is much less likely option.

I tried to have 5pts (£125) at Ladbrokes but was limited to 1 pts (see screen shot above). I therefore put the other 4pts on in a Ladbrokes shop!

Update : 8.00 p.m. 2 hrs later and betting is suspended. Looks like I have had some affect on the market!

Saturday, January 03, 2009

Fulham to win FA Cup - 4pts E/W 66/1 - Corals

The 'Big Four' have an excellent record in the FA Cup in the past decade. However, I think the tide might be changing with Porstmouth's win last year. The 'Big Four' no longer take the FA Cup as seriously as they did in the past - it is now a long way behing the Chmaions League/Premier League in their priority.

I have chose to oppose the 'Big Four' with Fulham. At 66/1, they are a more than fair price. Roy Hodgson has made Fulham into a solid mid table outfit with a good defensive away record against stronger Premier League teams. Their third round tie away against Sheff Wed. is not too bad - hopefully they will get favourable draws from now on.

By backing with Coral, I have I had a 'free' 2pt E/W bet on a Championship tem- I have jhad 2pts E/W on Birmingham (it was a choice between them and Wolves as I know Reading will likely field an understrength side in teh FA Cup.)

N.B. I backed Everton last year and they went out in the 3rd round at home to Oldhamk so I hope I haven't jinxed Fulham!

Monday, December 29, 2008

Two Premiership players of the same team to be sent off for fighting in 2009 - 25/1 - 1 pt


The last time two Premiership players of the same team were sent off for fighting was in 2005 (Dyer/Boyer for Newcstle).

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=AFLeTm46CqQ&feature=related

Before that, Le Saux/Batty had a (onfield) fight in 1995 in Moscow while playing for Blackburn - if this happened in the Premier League, both players would have been red carded. To me, this looks like an approx 10/1 chance. I tried to have 2pts with Will Hill at 25/1 but they restricted me to 1 pt.

N.B. Both Coral and Hills now have there '2009 Specials' online - if anyone and see any value bets, please post in the comments. Thanks.

Stone Roses to reform (7/1) , The Smiths to reform (5/1) in 2009 (2pts on each) - BlueSQ



Increasingly bands are reforming (probably mostly for financial reasons). Record companies are happy to pay hansomely, knowing the bands have fanbase ready to buy music/attend concerts. I'm therfore having 2pts on each of 'The Stone Roses' and 'The Smiths' reforming in 2009. In both cases, there is a band member holding out, but in each case they may be persuaded....

Cipriani/Brook to marry in 2009 - 2 pts - 33/1 BlueSQ


Cipriani and Brook are currrenly an item. How likely are they to marry in 2009? Without knowing them personally, an attempt to place odds on this is quite tricky. There are indications in the press (see below) that it is at least being considered in which case there are plenty of financial incentives to help with a 'positive' decision e.g. a lucrative OK magazine deal. My 'gut feel' is that this should be, at most, a 10/1 chance. I'm having 2pts at 33/1 at BlueSQ

http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/showbiz/xs/article105933.ece

Hull to qualify for Europe - 25/1 - 2 pts - BlueSq


I believe that Hull has a reasonable chance of qualifying for Europe. There are several ways that they can achieve this:

- Champions League - very unlikely
- UEFA Cup - possible

UEFA Cup qualification could come through the FA Cup, Premier League , Inter Toto Cup, Fairplay league etc....they probably need to either win the FA Cup (100/1), lose to a top 4 side in the FA Cup (33/1?) in the FA Cup Final or finish Top 7 in Premier League (16/1?). I think that it is an approximate 10/1 chance for at least one of these to happen. I'm therefore having 2pts at 25/1 on Hull to qualify for Europe in 2009.

(I tried to have 8pts but BlueSQ restricted me).

Aiden O'Brien to win all five Irish Classics - 66/1 - 2 pts win - Bluesq


Aiden O'Brien is increasingly dominating the Irish Flat Racing scene, as can be demonstrated by his record in the five Irish classics in the last 3 years:

2006 - 2 wins
2007 - 3 wins
2008 - 5 wins

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aidan_O%27Brien

BlueSq are going a generous 66/1 on him achiveing his 2008 clean sweep again in 2009. I think this is probably a 10/1 chance at most - it is a top priced 25/1 at other bookies. I'm therfore having 2pst on this.

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Monty Panesar to win 'Beard of the Yaer' 2009 - 2pst - 16/1 - Bluesq


The 'Beard of the Year' award is made by the Beard Liberation Front:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beard_Liberation_Front

Monty Panesar has a good record in this event and could be due a possible win in BOTY. He won this award in 2006 and finished Top 3 in 2007. Interestingly, a cricketer also won this award in 2004/5 - there is probably an overlap between followers of cricket and voters in this event. Cricket has not been especially high profile this year, but there are no obvious other front runners I can think off.

I would make Panesar an approx 5/1 chance to win this award (although it is a difficult to market to judge). I've had 2pts at 16/1 with BlueSq.

Jockey to finish in the Top 10 in BBC SPOTY 2009


I think Bluesq have seriously underestimated the chances of a Jockey fishing in the Top 10 of SPOTY 2009. The woeful amount of coverage given by the BBC to this year's racing on SPOTY (< 1 min) shouldn't detract from the possibility that a jockey could be Top 10 next year. Indeed, it is only in 2006 that Frankie Dettori made the Top 3.

So what would it take for UK Sports Editors (who vote for the Top 10) to make a Jockey part of it? The immediate possibilities I can think of are:

- Keiran Fallon - returns this year and if he had a successful return (e.g success in the Breeders Cup) could be selected. I'm sure Lester Piggott would have made the Top 10 on his return.
- Hayley Turner -I think she will become one of the outstanding jockeys of her generation (of either sex). If she has a successful season and wins a series of high profile races (or becomes the first women jockey to win any Classic) she will likely be Top 10.
- Any jockey (Jumps/Flat) going through the card (as Frankie Dettori did at Ascot in 1996).

I'd make this bet an approx 5/1 chance - the 50/1 is great value. I've tried to have 8 pts at 50/1 and have been restricted (not unreasonably) to 2pts.


I;m sure there are many others

Sharon Osbourne to return to X Factor in 2009 - 2 pts - 10/1 - Bluesq


It has been suggested that Danni Minogue may be leaving X Factor (she is thought to be too similar to Cheryl Cole who is more popular with the public). It would not be impossible for Sharon Osbourne to return (Louis Walsh was brought back). Indeed, there have been rumours to suggest this.

http://tinyurl.com/9qn6fh

I think the 10/1 on Sharon Osbourne returning in 2009 is reasonably generous. I think it should be an approx 4/1 chance (although trying to judge the correct prices is notriously difficult for both bookies and punters alike).

Phil Taylor to win all 2008 TV Touranenst - 2pts - 33/1 - Stan James


Anyone who know anything about sport will tell you that Phil Taylor is one of the most underrated sportsmen (how he doesn't make Top 10 in Sports Personality of the Year in most years is a disgrace).

Since the 2007/8 World Championships, Phil Taylor has been in sensational form. In subsequent live TV tournaments, in only lost one of event (and that was only narrowly). I think that Stan James are taking a chance by quoting Phil Taylor at 33/1 to win the eight live TV events. I think he will be odds on for all these events and, as the year progresses, if he continues to win he will get progressively shorter priced.

I would make it a 16/1 chance at most. I've had 2 pts. at 33/1.

(Events listed below)
Premier League, US Open, UK Open, Las Vegas Desert Classic, World Matchplay, World Grand Prix, World Championship 2009/10, Grand Slam Of Darts.

New Year Specials - Updates Ahead

This is the time of year when Bookies make 'New Year Special Bets' available. Most are awful value, but there is an occasional standout bet. I've found a few and will be putting them online over the new few days. The only downside is bookies claiming these agreed bets are 'palpable errors'(as happened to me last year). Not sure what can be done to protect the punter against this - any comments gratefully appreciated.

** Anyone see any bets that think are value, please post in the comments. Thanks ***

Friday, December 05, 2008

IACGMOH - Lay Joe Swash at 1.2 - 4pts (to win 19 pts - Betfair)


There have been plenty of shocks in the final night of reality TV series, not least in IACGMOH. These shocks (I believe) are due to the increased voting on the night by individuals who haven't voted before and who are unduly influenced by the actions on the night. This is especially true for IACGMOH where the individual doing the nastiest i.e eating 'bushtucker trial' can get more votes than expected. For this reason, I'm laying the 'good thing' Joe Swash at 1-5.