Snooker - Malta Open - Tom Ford - 1pt E/W 200-1

Tom Ford has previously peformed well in this tournament, and is located in the easiest half of the draw. He has yet to reach his full potential, perhaps this could be the week!

Murray to win Aiustralian Open without losing a set.

I'm generally not one for fun bets (=losing bets in general) but I can't resist 1pt on Andrew Murray to win the Australin Open without dropping a set at 300-1 at William Hill. Go Murray!

Boxing - Morua v Witter- Murua to win on points - 16-1

Witter's last 4 fights have finished on points. Murua's last 10 fights have finished on points. Despite what Witter says (i.e. that he will provide an early stoppage), these facts point towards a points finish. In this case , Witter is the most likely to win (and is a even money chance to do so), but Murua is overpriced at 16-1 to pull of a surprise and take this match via the judges.

I'm having 2 pts on a Murua pts win at the generally availible 16-1.

Date Blair ceases to peform Prime Ministerial Duties

This week the Prime Minister announced he would be attending the IGC at the end of June 2007. This makes me even move convinced that he will not cease his Prime Ministerial duties in May (a 1.72 chance at William Hill).

I have previously had 6pts at 25-1 on July - this is now a 12-1 chance, but still a great price. I'd make him a 2-1 chance to leave on this date. I also previously had 1 pt on August (50-1) and September (33-1). These prices are still availible. I am coming to the conclusion that there is a possibility that Blair may string this out to the Party conference (end Sept. 2007) to ceremonially hand over being Premier at a formal occasion. The other benefit to Blair is that the longer he waits, the longer the possibility a challenger will appear against Brown.

I have therefore had a further 2pts at 33-1 for him to leave on in September 2007

This of course could be derailed by the Cash for Honours inquiry e.g if he is arrested on a PCJ charge or the report to the CPS is negative (and published), but I think that both of these scenarios are unlikely.

Next US President - Barack Obama - 9-1 - William Hill - 10pts

I have previously backed Barack Obama at 16-1 to be US President. This week, Obama announced on hs website (http://origin.barackobama.com/video/) that he was establishing an Exploratory Committee, the fisrt step to mounting a Presidential Challenge. He is due to make an final decision on Feb 10th 2007, and then stated he 'looked forward to continuing our conversation in the weeks and months to come'. This to me looks like he will run for President.

A recent poll for the Democratic Nomination make him close to Hilary Clinton (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Political%20Tracking/Democratic%20Primaries/DemocraticPrimary.htm), with the other runners far behind (although another poll I've seen this has Clinton still 10pts ahead. Both these polls were taking before Obama's announcement, from which he should get a lift. I thinks that this will be a two horse race for the Democratic nomination, with the momemtum at present in Obama's favour. (His use of the internet for the announcement is impressive).

At many bookies he is approx 9/2 for next President (which I think is the correct price), so I've had 10pts on Obama at 9/1 at William Hill. I see him as the next JFK (who overcame the supposed *electoral* handicap of being Catholic (he was the 1st non Protestant president) -Obama could do the same for being a non White candidate.

N.B. William Hill are taking a stance in a number of markets in politicl events and are happy to take proper sized bets..one of of is gone to be a serious loser!

Celebrity Big Brother - Danielle Lloyd (100/1), Jo O'Meara (100/1) 1pt Each

With the malign influence of Jade Goody disappeared, Danielle and Jo a chance of re-establishing their credibility. Neither received many nominations this week, and, as has already been seen, these markets has history of rapidly changing favourites/outsiders.

I;ve had my money on Betfair, so I have a chance laying off if either goes into single figures.

Australian Tennis Mens Open Preview

Federer is a prohibitively short priced favourite at best priced 2-5. His record in this Grand Slam event is the weakest of the Grand Slams, excepting the French Open. He is of course the most likely winner, however there is much better E/W value in the other half of the draw.

Nadal was out of form in the 2nd half of 2006, so is no value at 8-1. In the forth quarter his much difficult openents will be Blake (20-1), Hewitt (50-1) and Murray (40-1). Blake has a tough first round match against Moya - if he gets through this he has a great chance of reaching the final. Therefore at this stage he is probably best avoided. I still have doubts regarding Murray's fitness, therefore with a relatively hard draw, he may lose in the last 16 (Nadal) or last 8 (Blake) if either match goes to 5 sets. Hewitt is not the force of old, although he will be motiuvated for his 'home' event.

The 2 top 8 seeds in the 3rd quarter are Nalbandian and Davydenko. However, both have injury doubts so there is some great value to be found. My preference is to have 1pt E/W on both Soderling (100-1) and Malisse (125-1). This event has a recent history of haveing a least one big priced finalist.

Soderling has been steadliy improving. He has the game to suit hard court tennis and good recent hard court form, losing in the Doha semi final in 3 sets (on a tie break) to eventual winner Ljubicic. The onw worry is whether he has the right psychological make up - he seems to lose too many games when he is playing the better tennis (e.g against Ljubicic in Doha).

Malisse reached 2 hard court semi finals last year and also has good recent form, winning in Chennai beating Nadal in the semi-final.

Chelteham Gold Cup - Halcon Genelardis - 33/1 2pts E/W

If the ground at Cheltenham comes of soft (or heavy), I believe that Halcon Genelardis will start a much shorter price than 33/1. With the current climate conditions and the casualties caused by faster ground last year, these softer conditions are a real possibility.

If it is soft ground, not only will it suit Halcon Generaldis there are several horse it will be a problem for. Kauto Star (7/4) may be one of these, staying up the Cheltenham hill is always a true test of stamina. However, the reason I'm not backing Kauto Star is because of his jumping... I don't think he will make it around, probably falling at the 3rd last - anyone want to give me a price on this?

Halcon Genelardis produced a great performance win the Welsh National (for which he had be layed out for by Alan King, a trainer for who I have a high respect). Through a line with Juveigneur, Halcon Genelardis has a similar form to Hennessy winner Stae of Play, who is half the price (although State of Play is more verslatile in terms of different types of ground he can run on). It is these type of progressive horses that I also focus on for the Gold Cup.

Halcon Generladis is scheduled for a re-appearance in the Wetherby and Christopher (formerly the Pillar) later this month at Cheltenham where he will face Ou Vic, another horse I think has a good chance. By running Our Vic less often often they seem to have found the key to this horse, alkthough I don't fully trust him yet. If Haclon Genelardis beats Our Vic on good-soft ground in thsi race (which I think is a real possibility), he could be into approx 10/1.

Update: The 33/1 has now disappeared, but there is still plenty of 25/1 availible.

Next Premiership Manager to Leave in 2007 - Mourinho - 33/1 (Corals)

I've had a 'cratfy' 1pt on Mourinho to be the next Premiership Manage to leave in 2007. Things appear to be going from bad to worse in his relationship with Chelsea. It is likely that he will leave in the summer (I'd make it an odds on chance now), but there is a possibility he will leave earlier than that e.g to Real Madrid if Capello leaves mid season and Mourinho is offered the Real Madrid position.

As regards other Premiership managers leaving , there are no other obvious candidates.... if one qwas to leav, it would have probably of happended at the start of the mid season transfer window.

N.B. If no manager levaes this season, this bet is settled as a loser.

Update: This market has now been pulled by Corals.... will probably re-appear at the end of the day after todays games have been played.

2.40 Sandown - Tolwoth Hurdle - 1pts WIn Load Baskerville 200/1 (Betfair)

Small fields on heavy ground can throw up suprise results.

Lord Baskervill goes well fresh, is fine on the (heavy) ground and was progressive last year. 200/1 is a bit of an insult. He will need to improve, but is not any lbs off the market leaders on ratings. The main worry is the trainer is currently out of form.

Mourinho NOT to be Chelsea Manager at End 2007 - 6/1 (Corals)

Mourinho's contract expires this summer. There are a number of reasons for thinking that he will then leave:

- relationship with Abramovich & Kenyon. As a result of the 'Gallas' affair (and over other matters), neither realtionbhsip is strong.
- Mourinho is strong willed and, if things start turning againist him, is unlikely to back down against Abramovich/Kenyon
- Mourinho walked out from his first appointment
- Chelsea are doing well this year at present (by their high standards).

I've had 3pts at 6/1....

Aus v Eng 5th Test - Man of the Match - Glen McGrath (7/1) 4pts (cover Shane Warne (5/1) 1pt)

The Sydney Cricket Ground (SCG) is the location for the 5th test in the Ashes. Given England's diamla record, I expect that an Australian player (most likely a bowler) will win MoM.

This is Glen McGrath and Shane Warne's last test and both have a reasonable record at the ground (which is 'spinner friendly'). I expect one of these 2 individuals to win the MoM. As SCG is Glen McGrath's home venue (and Shane Warne won the last MoM on his home ground), preference is for Glen McGrath, with a cover on Shane Warne.

My staking plan is as follows

4pts Glen McGrath - 7/1
1pt Shane Warne - 5/1

These prices are availible at Ladbrokes. Just missed the 10/1 at Blue Squeare, the other bookmaker who has opened on this market.... other bookies are running scared.

In Which Month Will Tony Blair Step Down From His Duties As Prime Minister?

William Hill have priced up 'In Which Month Will Tony Blair Step Down From His Duties As Prime Minister? '. I believe this market has been seriously mis-priced.

I think the most lilkely scenario is for Blair to stepdown from leadership of the Labour Party in May 2007, after the local elections and after 10 years in charge. He could at this point also step down as Prime Minister. The most likely scenario for this (simultaneous) resignation to happen is if their was a 'coronation' (of Brown).

However, a left wing MP has already indicated he will stand against Brown, and there is a possibility Reid will as well, triggering a leadership contest. Whilst a leadership contest takes place, I believe Blair will retain his position as Prime Minister. With an expected 8 weeks for the leadership contest, my thinking is that Blair will cease his duties as Prime Minister in July 07. This is confirmed by the (well connected) political correspondent of 'The Sun'.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2006410396,00.html

A strict reading of the Labour Leadership rules would be that a resignation would be followed by an appointment at the Labour party conference in Sept. 07.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/5177180.stm

The prices they have are as follows (Month, Price) : May 1.57 April 4.00 March 8.00 June 15.00 February 17.00 July 26.00 September 34.00 October 34.00 January 34.00 August 51.00 Any Other 51.00

Therefore my staking plan is as follows:

6 pts - July - 25/1
1 pt - August - 50/1
1 pt - September -33/1

N.B (i) This market is very different from the Betfair market which is 'When will Tony Blair officially cease to be leader of the Labour Party?'
N.B (ii) The book closes at 5:30 p.m. today. (Although it may be re-opened)

Leonardo di Caprio (The Departed) - Golden Globe (20/1), Oscars (11/1)

The Golden Globe best actor nominations have been announced and they are as follows:

Forest Whitaker ( The Last King of Scotland )
Peter O`Toole ( Venus )
Will Smith ( The Pursuit of Happyness )
Leonardo Di Caprio ( The Departed )
Leonardo Di Caprio ( Blood Diamond )

Although being nominated for two films may be seen as a handicap, I stil think Leonardo Di Caprio is in with a chance against the (long odds on) favourite Forest Whittaker. Forest Whittaker has the critics backing at present, but the (low number) of Golden Globes judges have a record of choosing major stars for their award.

I'm having 1pt @ 20/1 (Victor Chandler).

If he wins this award, he will be much shorter for the forthcoming Oscars (for which the Golden Globes are a strong predictor), so consequently I'm also backing him at 12/1 for the Best Actor Oscar (Bet365/Sportsinteraction .... do they have the same odds compilers?)

Order of Merit - 2pts E/W - Voy Por Ustedes - 20/1 - Stan James

Kauto Star is justifiably a short priced favourite for the OoM. However, given his short price (4/9), there is E/W value to be had elsewhere. My preference is for Voy Por Ustedes, the favourite for the Quenn Mother.

Enroute to the Queen Mother, he is likely to take in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury which should be relatively straightforward (unless Kauto Star switches to this race from the Aon Chase).

To win the OoM, Voy Por Ustedes will need Kauto Star to not complete for the rest of the year (not an impossibility given Kauto Star's jumping). However, to get placed in the OoM Voy Por Ustedes will just need to put in some solid performances. The 2m divison looks realtively week this year - his competitors in the OoM are mainly hurdelers (which seems a much more competitive divison).

King George VI Preview

Kauto Star is too short at 4/7 for this event. His jumping is not perfect, and will be fully tested around Kempton. There is also a doubt as to the nature of his Haydock and Sandsown performences - are they really the special performances that most believe?

Racing Demon also has jumping issues. Monet's Garden is much the best bet of the favoured horse, however he will need to improve a little to take this race and his reluctantly passed oer at 4-1.

Instead my two bets are as follows:

Monkehostin - 4pts win, 20-1 (Betfair). I think he has a reasonable chance of reversing form with Racing Demon on their last running - last year Monkerhostin reserved his best for Kempton (i the King George) when he was narrowly beaten by Kicking King.

Ollie Magern, - 1pt win, 40-1 (Betfair) - a front running horse (a charactersitic that suits Kempton), need to return to form to take a part, but it wouldn't be the greatest suprise ever if he took a major part in this race.

2006 Review - 49.79 % Profit

The headline figure of 49.79 % tells the story of my first year. I was aiming for 40%, so I am more than happy with this figure. (This includes all bets I have placed - if you only select all post placed on this blog before the event, this figure drops to 37.69 %). The reason for the discrepancy is that I sometimes see 'last minute' bets e.g Rail Link on the PMU in the Arc.

Whichever figure we use, I am happy with my performance. I'd be interested if anyone knows of any blog that can beat either these figures (or get close to them!) ... I want to read it! I would any wish those in the print/new media listed % profits (or losses) it would make it so much easier to know who to read! (i.e. whose judgement to trust)

Previously, I've been asked to post my results - I've an .xls with these, filtered by 'settled bets' and ordered by sport. Comments much appreciated! If you'd like a copy, email me at chris.trinder@gmail.com for a copy (unless someone can tell me how to place an attachment on a blog. other than an image!)

Finally, thanks to thebetfairtrader.blogspot.com for giving me an metion on his blog - it made my day!

http://thebetfairtrader.blogspot.com/2006/11/betfair-betting-blogs.html

'More of a tipping blog than a Betfair trading one, but one I like to read anyway, is Kicking Bets written by a guy called Chris. Been going for a nearly a year. Can't find the latest results but I think he's showing a 40 something or other per cent ROI. Perhaps not the biggest from a trading perspective but I think you'll be hard pressed to find an out and out tipster with better results'.

Aus v Eng 4th Test - Man of the Match - Shane Warne - 4pts @ 6-1 (William Hill)

Australia are strong favoutrites to win this match, meaning an Australina player is likely to win Man of the Match. The ground is very much a 'home ground' for Shan Warene and he has a good bowling record here.

In addition, with Shane Warne announcing his imminent retirement frm test cricket, there will also be sentimental reasons to giuve him the award.

'Level Out' on Matt Dawson for SCD - lock in minimum 30 pts profit.

I'm going to lay Mark Ramprakash to take an (approximately) neutral position and lock in a (minimum) 30 pts. profit. Having backed Mark at 16-1, I would read the outocme this Saturday as a 'toss of the coin' job. Mark and Matt have been recently consistently 1 and 2 in the public vote (the only vote that will count this week) and the only time we have been certain of the order they finished in the public vote, it was Matt above Mark.Mark has not been consistent the best with his dancing, so he may not get the judges highest ratings (not that this will have a huge impact). Zoe Ball (last series) and Emma Bunton (this series) has showed the consistency of pro/anti voting for individulas, irrespective of their performance.I appreciate the polls have Mark a clear leader, I think they may be wrong.

Update on Presidential Betting 2008 - New Bets (Guiliani 16-1, Gore 33-1)

As you can see from the above poll, the polling figures have changed a little since my last review one month ago. The key moves are as follows:

Republican Candidate - It looks increasingly certain that Rice will not stand for the Republican candicacy. Guiliani has moved from 28% to 29%, McCain drops from 26% to 24% and Gingrich moves up from 7% to 13%.

I think Guiliani is great value at 16/1 for the Presidency, and I've had a further 6pts at 16-1 at William Hill.

Democrat Candidate - Clinton has strengthed her position, her support moving from 31% to 37%. Obama has dropped back from 19% to 15% and Gore has moved from 9% to 15%, now tying with Obama.

I've looked closely at Gore's position on the Presidency and he does not rule this out (although he isn't 'planning to stand', and easy get out). He has kept his profile very high with his enviromental campaigning and has the funds to mount a successful Candidature / Presidential campaigns. Clinton is clearly the most likely to be the Democratic Candidate, but 33-1 on Gore for President in 2008 is a great bet in my opinion.

I am having 6pts win at 33/1 on Gore for the Presidency (William Hill).

If Clinton does take the Democratic nomination, I think that either Guiliani (or McCain) willl be a very strong challenger. Guiliani's positions on social matters will win over potential Democratic voters (while not dropping to many Republican vites as they have nowhere to go). In contrast, it is unlikley that Clinton will take many Republican votes due to the fact she so strongly polarises opinion.

Complete Record of US bets.

10 pts Guiliani Next US President 16-1 (still availible, Willian Hill)
6 pts Gore Next US President 33-1 (still availible, William Hill)
5 pts Obama Democratic Nominee 8-1 (top price now 5-1, Ladbrokes)
4pts Obama Next US President 16-1 (top price now 9-1, William Hill)