Open Golf - Outright Bet (after Rnd 3) - Bryce Molder - 2 pts E/W 50-1 (1/4 1,2,3,4) - Ladbrokes, 4 pts Win Betfair (75-1)

Bryce Molder was the final person I crossed off my Open list (at 250-1), leaving Stpehen Ames as my only bet. Bryce Molder has recently been in inspired form with some remarkebly consitent rounds. My concern pre-tournament was that having to play two rounds last Sunday would mean tiredness was an issue - this is claerly not the case.

With Stpehen Ames missing the cut, I've now decided to back Bryce Molder at 50-1. An excellent 67 today means he is on even par, 4 shots behind the leader Tom Watson. Molder has shown today he can handle the windy conditions, likely to be the case tomorrow. I had no doubnt links golf would not be an issue - he played reasonably well links golf in his Amateur career (picked this up in my pre-tournament research!)

I've also placed 4 pts win at 70-1 on Betfair, with a lay back at even money (I've been twice caught with Open Golf losing bets with players who have gone odds on at some point!)

Khan v Kotelnik - Kotelnik to win on points - 5pts - 8/1

I believe Khan is seriously underpriced for this fight. After a first round loss to Prescott (three fights ago) and a win last fight over a 'past it' Barrera, Khan is taking a serious chance by fighting Kotelnik.

Khan is vulnerable to a KO from Kotelnik (7/2), but his trainer Roach will have educated him to try to avoid this (especially as this would be a career ending result for Khan). Kotelnik was able to stand (hard hitting) Maidana in his last fight and go onto win on points, hence I think a KO by Khan (2/1)is unlikely.

I am therefore think a points victory for either boxer are the the most likely possible cenarios. A Kahan points victory at 6/4 is no value. A "suprise" Kotelnik points victory is a definite "runner" and, at 8/1, is a great bet. I'd make it a 3/1 chance.

Open Golf - Stephen Ames to win ROW market - Totesport - 10/1 - 6 pts (1pt E/W Outright market)

I think Stephen Ames to go better than expected in the Open. He last 4 Major results were :

T7 - Missed Cut - T20 - T10

The T7 was in last year's Open when he posted an excellent final round score in windy conditions - there could be similar conditions this year. I've had 1pt E/W on Betfair at prices of 190.0 win/30 place. I've reserved my main bet for the Totesport 'Rest of The World' Market. Totesport have fewer players on their marketcomnpared to other bookies, reducing the risk. (of course Ames is 10/1, shorter than the 25/1 in most ROW markets with other bookies)

The main players in this market are

Villegas
Cabrera
Singh
Weir
Romero
Choi

All of them are capable on their day and could easily win this market, but I don't especially fancy any of these players this week. I've had max. allowed of 6pts (tried to have 10 pts).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Ames

Sports Personality of the Year 2009 - Jessica Ennis - 50-1 - 8pts win

The two shortest in the betting for SPOTY are Jenson Button and Andy Murray.

Jenson Button has a great chance of winning this, but at 4/7 he is not a backable price. With BBC now showing F1, he will get excellent coverage. However, he is not guranteed to win the F1 championship and, and even if he does win, this does not automatically translate to winning the SPOTY 2009.

At 4/1 Andy Murray has a chance, but he didn't finish in the Top 3 last year. As a consequence of 'only' a semi final this year at Wimbledon, as a minimum he wouldl need to win the US Open (and even that would not gurantee a win in SPOTY 2009). I have a suspicion in England he is not especially well liked, as a consequence of some previous unfortunate commments.

With relstively few individual events this year, I've picked Jesscia Ennis to win SPOTY 2009 at 50/1. She is back fit again and has a good chance of winning Gold in the Heptathlon in the World Championships in Berlin this summer. If this happens, I think she is likley to finsih top 3 (and potentially win it ouright). She his taking park today in an Athletics tournament - I've therefore taken the last remaining 50/1 at Corals. I would make her a 10/1 chance.

Graaem Swann - Man of the Match - 1st Ashes Test - 8pts win 14/1

Graeme Swann has an excellent chance of being Man of the Match in the firat test. This ground is likley to take spin (as shown by earlier one day mathces). He is particularly potent against left handers - there are a realtively large number of these in the Asutralian top order. I believe Swann could take a signficant amount of wickets whcih woudl put him in with a great chance of winning MoM. I've managed to get 6pts at 14/1 and 2pts at 16/1

Pietersen to score > 500 runs in the Ashes Test Series - Centrebet - 11/2 - 8 pts

Pietersen has a career test average of 48.3. The bookies think he will score approx 400 runs in the Ashes series, but I think this is an underestimate.

Postives

- Previous Ashes series totals were 490 (in 2005) and 473 (in 2005) with an average of 53.5 i.e. he raises his game against Australia compared to lesser teams
- Australia have a weaker bowling attack than the last two Ashes ** this is the most important **
- I believe Pietersen will be motivated by the loss of being captain

Negatives

- Possible injury worries (although he asys he has recovered form these)
- Will Pietersen gets a chance to bat for 10 innings? ( I think highly likely but could be derailed by injuries and/or weather)

I therefore think that 11/2 on him to score more than 500 runs is a very fair price - I'd make at an approx 3/1 chance (at most).

Ancelotti to be Premier Manager of the Year - 11/2 - Betfred - 2pts win

The 'Racing Post' today highlighted a great bet today on Ancelotti to be Premier Manager of the Year 2009-10. In 15 the last 16 years the Manager who has won the Premier League has also won Premeier Manager of the Year. You are therefore getting effectively 11/2 about a 5/2 chance. I tried to have 16 pts on Ancelotti but was restricted to 2pts.

Tour De France - Fabian Cancellara - 100-1 4 pts E/W

This bet is going to go down as one of my most inspired or my most stupid.

Another day, another "Black Swan". Folliwng today's racing of the Tour de France (first day), second placed Contador has strengthed his position at the top of the market. He is a likely winner, but the three week Tour De France has thrown at many suprises in the past during the competition e.g. failed drug tests. I'm therefore not tempted at even money.

Instead, I have had a speculative 4 pts E/W at Ladbrokes at 100-1 on Cancellara (who won todays time trial by 20s). Most people will think this is complete nonsense as Cancellara is considered "just" a time trial specialist. However, he showed in the recent Tour of Switzerland that he can build up a sufficient lead in the time trials to win the overall event (by staying competitive in the mountains).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fabian_Cancellara
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Tour_de_Suisse

Certainly past winner Stephen Roche thinks that a high overall finish is not impossible. Cancellara's (alleged) weight loss of 7 kg may have just been the what is required to stay competitive in the French mountains.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/stephen-roche-tips-contador-and-cancellara-for-tour

This bet complements my 4pt win bet placed last year on Lance Armstrong at 16-1 when he announced his comback (now top priced 13-2).

CONCACAF Gold Cup 2009 - Guadeloupe - 2pts E/W - 100/1

A signficant numnber of the leading contenders for this tournamnet are fiedling sub-strength teams. This means one of the outsiders could go deep into the tournament. I think a possible 'Black Swan' are Guadeloupe. As they are not a FIFA memeber, their ability is more difficult to judge.

Most of the Guadeloupe players play in the French League so consequently play to a reasonable standard. Their first appearance in the Gold Cup in 2007 saw them make the semi-finals went out 1-0 to Mexico. They are in a relatively weak group (Group C). I am confident they will qaulify from the Group stage, probably in 2nd place behind Mexico. They could even top it due to Mexico fielding a youth team

There is no way there should be 100-1 (outright) chances. I've tried to have 4 pts E/W but have been restricted to 1 pt E.W at 2 bookmakers (making a total investment of 2pts EW). I've also had 1pt at 33-1 on Guadeloupe to win Group C - I tried to have 4pts.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guadeloupe_national_football_team

F1 2009 Championship - Mark Webber - 12pts win -33/1

After 8 of 17 races the standing are as follows:

01 Jenson Button 64
02 Rubens Barrichello 41
03 Sebastian Vettel 39
04 Mark Webber 35.5

(Trulli is next at 21.5)

I think the F1 Championship is now between the Brawn and the Red Bull Drivers. Red Bull Bull have made signficant progress with their car, as demonstrated by their 1-2 in the British Grand Prix. With less than half the season gone, it would not be impossible for one of the Red Bull drivers to overtake Button in the Championship (although clearly Button is still by far the most likely winner).

However, I'm very suprised to see the differnec in price between Vettel (10-3) and Webber (33-1). I've given a lot of thought and I really can't see why they are so different in price. I'd have made the book:

Button 1/3
Vettel 7/1
Webber 9/1
Barrichello 40/1

I therefore think Webber is great value at 33-1 (complements my 50-1 on Button and 125-1 on Barrichello). I've had to be imaginative how to get £300 on - I was restriceted at virtually all bookies to a few pounds. Fortunately, William Hill allowed me £3 max. online and £100 without question in cash in their shops. If you are going to cut off winning punters, at least try and do it consistently across all channels!

US Open - Michael Sim - 600/1

I think I have found a 'Black Swan' in Micheal Sim. He has had an oustanding record on the Nationwide Tour in 2009:

http://www.pgatour.com/players/02/68/82/

The fact he is playing on the Nationwide Tour means he has slipped under the radar, much like the Open winner Todd Hamilton who was similarly unfancied at 500-1 when playing on the Japanese Tour. I've had the following bets:

1pt Win 600-1 (Betfair
1.5 pts E/W 300-1 (Bluesq 1/3 1-5 / Boylesports 1/4 1-6)
4pts Win Top Australian 16-1 ... (Ogilvy is a massive danger for this bet)

Royal Ascot - Tuesday - Queen Anne Stakes - Alexandros - 2pts - 10/1 - Betfred

The Godolphin/Frankie Dettori combination have had great succes in this race in the past (although they have a generally poor Ascot record). Godolphin have two runners in this race, Gladiatorus and Alexandros. Gladiatorus (partnered by Ajtebi) beat Alexandros at Nad Al Sheba and a repetition of this form will see Gladiatorus most likley win this race

This was an oustanding performance, but form at Nad Al Sheba is not certain to transfer to other tracks (and there is a possibility that Gladiatorus could 'bounce') . At 9/4, I'm therefore not backing Gladiatorus. I've instead backed Dettori's runner Alexandros (the Godolphin 'second string'). Alxendros was unlucky in the Lockinge (a key 'trial' for this race) when second to Virtual (Dettori lost his whip in the final furlonmg).

Alexandros is (wrongly in my opinion) seen as not much more than a top class handicapper. I think he is better than that and will not need much of a progression in ability to take this race (asuuming Gladiatorus does not show the same ability as at Nad Al Sheba). I have significant concerns about others in the race. Will Paco's Boy stay 1m on a straight track? - I think Paco's Boy is poor value at 7/2 having been beaten fairly and squarely in the Lockinge by Alexandros over 1m. Aqlaam will need to recover from a poor run in the Lockinge (when clearly something was amiss). If he does, he could be a massive danger - at 10/1 he is a reasonable price as well.

I've therefore had 2pts at 10/1 at Betfred on Alexandros.

Royal Ascot - Tuesday - Kings Stand Stakes - Mythical Flight - 2pts - 25/1 - William Hill

Overseas raiders have an execllent record in the Kings Stand Stakes and are consistently underated. The Australian runner Scenic Blast has a great chance at 7/2 but, at a bigger price (25/1), I've backed Mythical Flight. In his last two races, this South African runner raced twice over 6f in the Far East. In these races he clearly looked like he would benefit from a drop back to 5f. Mythical Prince has a bit to find on the form, but 25/1 is a generous price.

Epsom Derby - Golden Sword - 1pt E/W 50/1

I think Golden Sword is overpriced at 50/1. He ran an excellent trial, winning the Chester Vase. This proves he stays the Derby trip (1m 4f), a doubt for many of the other Derby runners. The consesus is he 'stole' the race from the runner up, which has detracted many from looking at the strict form of the race (which I believe is underated). The race was run in a quick time and the form was franked via the Oaks yesterday. He is likley to have a front running role (like in the Chester Vase) and could easily grab a place.

I tried to have 2pts E/W at Victor Chalder, but was limited to 1 pt E/W.... I guess it is only one of the biggest flat horses races in the world!

Lay off Button/Brawn bets made with UK bookies.

Those who follow my blog will know I was heavily involved with Button/Brawn pre-season at 'fancy' prices after the testing at Jerez. I believe that the next 2 races (Turkey/UK) will suit the Ferrai & Red Bull teams so I am taking the opportunity to lock in the profit made on bets with UK bookies (bets I am confident will be paid out if they win). I've therefore had the follwoing bets:

Original UK bets:

2pts Brawn at 80/1 (Corals)
4 pts E/W Button at 40/1 (Corals), 1.5 pts E/W 40/1 Button (Boylesports), 1 pt Win Button at 40/1 (William Hill)
(all Max Bets allowed online)

Layoff bets - Brawn:

8 pts at 13/2 with Stan James for Brawn NOT to win the F1 Chmaionship (this was a special price quoted on request from me). (Max allowed).
Lay at 1.23 won Brawn at Betfair to win 80 pts is Brawn do NOT win (risk of 18 pts).

If Brawn Win (1/4 chance), I win 160-8-18=134 (=£3.35K)
If Brawn Lose (4/1 chance), I win 52+80-2=130 (=£3.25K)

Layoff bet - Button:

44 pts at 4/1 on Button with William Hill NOT to win F1 Championship (thsi bet iss availible online, a great price as the Betfaire lay price is 1.33)

If Button wins (1/4 chance), I win 260+55-44=271 (=£6.78K)
If Button loses (4/1 chance), I win 176-12=164 (=£4.1K)

I have not include the US bookmakers for certain reasons that will become clear ... the phrase 'papable error' is coming into play :(

O'Brien Derby Specials -First 4/First 5 in the Derby

The field has been confirmed for the Derby at the 5 day declaration stage and it as as follows (O'Brien horses in bold).

Fame And Glory 3-1
Sea The Stars 7-2
Rip Van Winkle 6-1
Gan Amhras 8-1
Black Bear Island 8-1
Masterofthehorse 14-1
Kite Wood 25-1
Age Of Aquarius 25-1
Crowded House 28-1
Golden Sword 33-1
South Easter 40-1
Montaff 50-1
Debussy 50-1

I think he has a real chance of at least having the first 4 home. (I could probably do some statistical analysis to prove it - any voulnteers?). I have therefore backed two possibilities (not mutually exclusive).

Aiden O'Brien to have the first 4 home - 1pt @ 20-1, 1 pt @ 28-1
Aiden O'Brien to have the fisrt 5 home - 1pt @ 50-1, 1 pt @ 125-1

(The lower prices are still avilible at willhill.com (first 4), vcbet.com (first 5)).

RSS feed

I've had a couple of requests for an RSS feed ... so I've added one. Just click on the icon to the right to subscribe using your preferred RSS update method. Can someone let me know if it works OK!

This will mean that you'll know when I update my blog.

France Open - Women - Carla Suarez Navarro - 3pts win 100-1,1 pt Place (E/W 1,2)

I think there a major doubts about most of the leading contenders in the Womens French Open. I've therefore found an outsider who could be value. Spaniard Suaraez Navarro has excellent clay form and saves her best performances for Grand Slam events. She made the QF here last year, and has a reasonable chance of progressing further this year - the 25-1 at William Hill looks more correct.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carla_Suarez_Navarro

I did want to have 2pts E/W at 100-1 but Ladbrokes restricted me to 1 pt E/W. I've had the other 2pt win at 120-1 at Centrebet.

Turin v Genoa - Genoa to win - 6-1 - 10 pts win

I normally steer clear of betting on individual footabll matches as the markets are usually very accurate. The only time I believe there is significant value is at the end of the season when bookies tend to underprice those teams who have to win (e.g. Sunderalnd V Chelsea where Sunderland are poor value).

Seria A is notorious dangerous to bet on at the end of season as results that would favour both teams are especially short (e.g. a draw in the Chievo v Bologna match today at 4-7!). I don't lay these 'short' prices as the results seem to occur just as often as the odds suggest.

Despite these reservations, Genoa must be fantastic value today at 6-1. The bookies has priced this match up assuming Genoa have nothing to play for. Genoa (currently 5th) have already secured a Europa League place but realistically need to win this game to have a chance of finishing fourth and getting a Champions League Place. The Genoa manager has given no hint that he will be taken this game easy - his pre-match commnent state quite the reverse. Turin are 17th, just above releagtion, and will be desperate for three points but wanting three points and getting them are two different matters.

P.S. I've also had 4 pts on Tottenham at 6-1 to beat Liverpool at Anfield today. This is primarily a cover bet as I have backed (earlier in the season) the following results:
- Liverpool to go undefeated at home
- Tottenham to finish 7th
both of whcih (as aa minimum) require a Tottenham win. I also don't think Tottenham are bad value at 6-1.

Irish Open - John Daly - 2pts E/W 1,2,3,4,5 - 66/1

Exiled for 6 months from the US Tour, (new slimline!) John Daly showed he was back to form with a 2nd last week in Italy. He has a good links record (he won the Open at St. Andrews) and is reasonable value at 66/1 for the Irish Open. He will be keen to prove his doubters wrong, having been reduced to selling T-Shirts outside the US Masters (and looks like could probably do with some golf winnings).

John Terry FGS - Chleseas v Barcleona - 25/1 - 2pts E/W

John Terry has a habit of scoring critical goals in European/International matches. With a weakened Barcelona defence, he has an excellent chance of scoring in the Champions League Semi Final. I'd make him a 16/1 chance at most for First Goal Scorer. The 25/1 at Ladbrokes/Corals is good value.

ATP Serbian Open - Troicki - 1.5 pts win 33/1

Troicki has a chance of doing well in the Serbian Open. It is a relatively weak tournament as many of the leading players have taken a week off between the two Masters tournaments (only 5 of the top 50 are there).

Like Djokovic, it is a 'home' tournament for Troicki - hence I think Troicki will raise his game for this (he won his last tournament on home soil). Djokovic is no certainty to beat Troiki if /when they meet (they are the the same half of the draw). Troicki won their only previous encounter in 2007 and like Djokivic has progressed well since then.

I make Troicki a 16/1 chance (at most) - I would have had 4pts win, but PaddyPower restricted me to 1.5pts.

Premier League - Boro to beat Man Utd - 4 ps - 7/1

Man Utd are planning to field a weakened team on Saturday against Boro (see manutd.com). I think the 7/1 is the price assuming Man Utd will field a full strength side. With a weakened Man Utd side, I'd make Boro 9/2 chances. I'm therefore having 4 pts at 7/1.

Eurovision Song Contest 2009 Update - Germany - 1pt E/W - 300/1

Last month, I had the following bets (the current new best prices are in brackets):

Ukraine - 50/1 (28/1)
Russia - 66/1 (50/1)
Serbia - 250/1 (100/1)

However, as stated in my post, there is no real way to tell how the 50% jury vote will influence the result. I've therefore had a new bet which may payoff if the jury vote becomes unexpectedly significant. I've backed Germany at 300/1 with Boylesports / Stan James (a 'cheeky' 1pt E/W). They have both cut this price, but 200/1 is still available at BlueSq.

After the disaster of 'No Angels' last year, they German public have selected a poor man's Ricky Martin called Alex Swings.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2FAuk8qGImA&feature=channel_page

However, he may have more chance than you would expect by the fact that he has persuaded Dita von Teese to perform with him.

http://www.thelocal.de/society/20090429-18951.html

Darling to say "sorry" in 2009 Budget Speech - 5pts - 8/1 - Extrabet

This is a hard market to call (both for bookies and punters alike). I have a feeling (and it is no more than that) that politically it might make sense to use the word "sorry" in his speech. He could say the word in many ways, i.e. "I'm sorry that the opposition feels that way about my excellent work" or "I'm sorry that my predictions last year make me look like an idiot now".

"Sorry" was used by Gordon Brown last week to put a lid on the last scandal and could again be used in this speech. Ladbrokes were going 7/1 - they are now into 4/1. Extrabet opened at 10/1 (which I missed).

9 or fewer Classified Cars - Chinese F1 Grand Prix - Centre Bet - 4 pts 16/1

For there to be 9 or less classified F1 finishers, you need a combination of collisions, mechanical faults and, most importnatly, rain. There is a > 50% chance of rain tomorrow in the Chinese Grand Prix. What is also important is that it will not be a monsoon (like in Malsyisa) but relatively light rain. This will be enough to cause cars to leave the track, but not enough for the race to be cancelled.

I think Centrebet are generous in offering 16/1 on there being 9 or less classified finishers. With forecast rain, I'd make it a 4/1 chance.

Eurovision Song Contest 2009 Preview

Those of you who are long term followers of my blog will know that my recent bets on the Eurovsion song contest have been hopelessly bad. In 2007 I backed DJ Bobo with 'Vampires are Alive' only to see it not even make it out of the semi-finals. In 2008, I switched to a betting strategy based on regional block voting, based on the analysis from Oxford University.

'How does Europe Make Its Mind Up? Connections, cliques, and compatibility between countries in the Eurovision Song Contest'

http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0505071v1

This was the correct strategy, but I made a poor selection (Belarus) using this strategy. This year I have completed more detailed analysis using the same 'regional' strategy. From this work, four countries stand out based on results in the past 5 years - I've listed my stakes next to each:

Greece (8/1) - 0 pts (price too short)
Ukraine (50/1) - 4 pts E/W
Russia (66/1) - 4 pts E/W (have the benefit of having pre-qualified to the final)
Serbia (250/1) - 2 pts E/W
(E/W terms 1/4 1,2,3)

(20 pts staked in total)

Norway are a ludicrously short price at 6/4. Although I have listened to the above four songs, I've made no attempt to judge which songs will receive the most votes (a previous mistake of mine). These four countries were all considerably shorter in the betting last year, when they all did well. This is a worry as this implies that the market is a good guide (not good when you are backing at long prices!).

http://www.youtube.com/user/esc2009tv

I suspect the reason why these countries are made longer prices this year is that the voting process has changed. This year, half of the votes from each country will be decided by the public and half by a jury. It is unclear how this will affect the votes cast, so I have not tried to factor in this change. At least half the votes will be cast as previously and arguments could made for both greater and less bias with a jury involvement.

http://www.eurovision.tv/page/home

3.45 Kempton - Something - 4pts E/W Ladbrokes

I am convinced that Something should be one of the favourites in this race. He showed he returned to form last time on heavy ground (tired at the end of race) at Haydock when he was well backed. If he reproduces his Polytrack form (2/2 at Lingfield), he will win this race easily. He could be incredibly well hancicapped.

At 33-1. he is excellent value - I've had 4pst E/W (Ladbrokes have limited me to 1.5pts, so I've placed the other 2.5 pts E/W on at a slightly shorter price at Betfair).

Justin Rose to lead after Rnd 1 of Masters - 40-1 - 2pts

To do well in the Masters, it is critical you are experienced around Augusta. Therefore it is no surprise to find the leader/joint leader after the first round for the last three years has been been the same player (Justin Rose). Can lightning strike a fourth time? There is no reason to think not, which is why I'm having 2pts at 40-1 on Justin Rose leading after Round One.

In the outright market I have already backed Mike Weir at 80-1. I am reasonably happy with this bet. I don't like to have more than one bet in any event, however if they make a reasonable start I'm considering having further bets on Phil Mickleson (9-1), Sean O'Hair (66-1) and Nick Watney (50-1) (who also has an excellent chance of leading after Round 1 at 40-1). Karlsson could make a play for top European at 14-1.

No. of finishers in Malysian Grand Prix to be 9 or less - 13/2 - 4 pts win

With rain forecast for the Malysian Grand Prix, there is a very real risk that we will see a low number of finishers in the Malaysian Grand Prix. Of the 20 runners, 14 finished in Melbourne and I therefore think the number of finishers in the humid Malysian environment could easily drop the single figures. I've therefore had 4 pts at 13/2 with Centrebet on this. N.B. I can't see any other bookies operating this exact market.

Weymouth to beat Barrow - 9/2 - 4pts Ladbrokes

I generally avoid betting on individual football matches, especially in the higher divisions where the prices are typically extremely accurate. I'm making an exeception today by backing Weymouth to beat Barrow at 9/2. Weymouth have had well documented financial problems, but substantial progress has been made in this area. This has meant that the first team players who departed how now been (partially) replaced by some reasonable on loan signings.

Barrow are a poor side and Weymouth are great value at 9/2 to beat them at home - I'd have made it a 9/4 chance at most. I've had 4pts at Ladbrokes on this (who now go 7/2) - 4/1 is still avilible at Boyelsports (there are as short as 3/1 at William Hill).

Australian Grand Prix - Toyota to win - 20/1 - 2pts Bluesq

Those who have been folllowing my blog will know I have backed Brawn GP (and Button/Barrichello separately) at 'fancy' prices for the 2009 F1 Sesaon. One of the reasons I think they will get off to a 'flyer' is the rear diffuser. This is being used by Brawn GP, Toyota and Williams. (I just hope any points wonare not removed by the FIA on appeal).

The value in Brawn GP for the Australin Grand Prix disappeared with their repeated execllent pre-season testing perfoemnaces (I actually think they are proabbly poor value now for teh Australian Grand Prix). However, there is still value in Toyota ito win the Australian Grand Prix. I backed them at 20/1 pre Friday testing. After a reasonably successfuil testing last night, they are now top priced 12/1. This is still a fair price - I'd make it now a 6/1 chance.

I probably should have also backed Rosberg (williams) at 50/1 prior to the race yesterday. He ran well as Melboune last year and could also make good use of the rear diffuser. Disppointed to have missed the 50/1 - I've no interest at 8/1

Lewis Hamilton to fail to win a race in F1 2009 - 2.5 pts - 5/1 Bluesq

As has been well documented, there have been many changes this year in the F1 rules and regulations. This has meant the likelihood of a radical change in points achieved is perfectly possible. With the McLaren cars looking currently uncompetitive, it is unlikely that Hamilton will win a race early in the season. McLaren will clearly be working hard to improve their car, but with limted testing this year they may well struggle. The 5/1 at Bluesq on Lewis Hamilton not winning a race this year is good value - I'd have made it a 3/1 chance.

F1 Season to be decided in Abu Dhabi (Final Race of Season) - 1.5 pts (William Hill)

6 of the last 8 F1 Championships have been decided at the last race of the season. At present it seems that the F1 Championship is competitive, so it seems as likely as ever that the Championship will be decided on the last race (at Abu Dhabi this year). Skybet go 11/10 on this happening. The 11/4 at William Hill is oustanding value - I've tried to have 6 pts on but have been limited to 1.5 pts. I'd make it a 4/6 chance - Skybet go 4/6 on it NOT happening.

NASCAR - Food City 500 (Bristol) - Carl Edwards - 12-1 - 4pts Win - expekt.com

Carl Edwards has a reasonable record at Bristol and showed his car is working well by finishing second in last night's race in the Nationwide series. He qualified poorly for tonights race, but these places can easily be made up in a race. The 12-1 that expekt.com are quoting to win the race is more than fair - I'd make him an 8/1 chance. Remember, although form is temporary, class is permanent!

Porto to win Champions League - 66/1 - 2pts E/W Coral

Can Porto get past Man Utd? Possibly - Man Utd have suffered a dip in form and Porto are currently first in the Portugese League (admittedly not the strongest league).

By backing Porto E/W for the Champions League, you get 66/1 for the win part (a fair price) and 22/1 if they finish second (Coral offer E/W terms of 1/3 1,2). This compares favourably with the 14/1 they are being separately quoted to make the final. Hopefully they will meet Villarreal in the semi final!

Villarreal - 6pts E/W Champions League - Ladbrokes - 28/1

As much as it pains me to write this (being an Arsenal supporter), Villarreal are value in the Champions League 2009 Market. Although we are down to the last eight, some bookies are still offering E/W terms of 1/2 1,2. I've therefore backed Villarreal at 28/1 (2pts E/W) at Ladbrokes.

Villarreal are currently 4th in La Liga. The win part of the bet is a fair price, but I can't see they are a 14/1 chance to make the final - I'd make it a an approx 8/1 chance (it is 10/1 on Betfair) . They should not be significant outsiders against Arsenal and there is always the possibility that Porto will beat Man Utd in the other Quarter Final. I asked Ladbrokes online for 4pts E/W but they restricted me online to 2 pts E/W. I've therefore but the 4pts E/W on at one of their shops! (Making a total of 6pts E/W).

P.S. I've also had 1.5 pts on Dunfermiline to win the Scottish FA Cup at 28/1. I think this should be a 14/1 chance.

Grand National Favourite - 'Any Other' 20-1- 1pt

I've taken a look at the Grand National in anticipation of having an AntePost bet. However, I have found it is a very competitive field with no stand out bets at present. Instead, I've taken advantage of the competitiveness of the market to have a bet in Skybet's 'Who will start Grand National Favourite' market. They have listed the following horses.

My Will
Butlers Cabin
Black Apalachi
Character Building
Comply Or Die
Big Fella Thanks
Rambling Minster
King Johns Castle
Hear The Echo
Snowy Morning
Cloudy Lane

With two weeks to go,there is plenty of opportunity for a unlisted horse (e.g. Southern Vic, State of Play) to significantly shorten (e.g. if they are tipped by a Racing Tipster). I've there backed 'Any Other' at 20-1.I tried to have 5pts,but Skybet limited me to 1pt.

Jenson Button to win F1 Championship - 60/1 - 6pts win

UK Bookmakers have caught up with the possibility that Jenson Button might win the F1 Championship this year. The 40/1 I took earlier this week has long since disapperaed - 10/1 is now the the biggest price you can now get with UK Bookmakers.

However, our friends across the pond have still not woken up to the performance of the Brawn GP car. US Bookmaker Sportsbook (http://www.sportsbook.com) are still offering 60/1 on Jenson Button forthe 2009 F1 Championship. I have had 6pts ($200) at this price (plus $20 bonus for opening an account). I'm sure this price won't last long (especially now I've mentioned on this blog!).

I'm not yet convinces that Brawn GP is the 'real deal' but the UK bookmaker prices are probably the most accurate i.e. 10/1 looks approximately the correct price for Jenson Button.

4 or More Favourites to win at Cheltenham (Friday)

I believe the favoured horses today have excellent chances at Cheltenham. I'm therefore backing at Paddy Power the 33/1 that 4 or more favourites win today (1.5pts). The added bonus is Joint/Co Favs count as the SP Fav.

Formual One 2009 - Brawn GP to outperform expectations

With a sizeable number of rule changes in F1 2009, there is the possibility of a previously underperforming F1 team making significant progress (and catching Mclaren/Ferrari). Honda (now Brawn GP) 'wrote off' 2008 and concentrated on preparation for the 2009 season. This coudld have been an inspired decision.

The financial problems with Honda should have had a negative impact, but (Mercedes powered Brawn GP) have been outstanding in testing this week at Barcelona. Testing times should of course be treated with caution, but I'm prepared to take a chance on Brawn GP being 'the real deal' at the availible prices.

http://www.formula1.com/news/headlines/2009/3/9009.html

I've therefore had the following bets:

Button to win 2009 F1 Chamionship - 6pts E/W - 40/1
Barrichello to win 2009 F1 Chamionship - 2pts E/W - 125/1
Brawn GP to win Constructors Chmaionship - 2pts Win - 80/1

National Hunt Chase - Parsons Pistol - 4 pts win 12-1

Parson Pistol has strong stamina, which should mean that he sees out the trip when stepping up to 4m in the National Hunt Chase (and could potentially improve). His form is strong with a recent 3m Grade 2 win at Naas. Noel Measde has given him a break since his last race and (apparently) is confident of a big run. My one reservation was the past performance of Noel Meade at the Cheltenham Festival where he has a poor record, however with Go Natives's victory yesterady I am less worried.

In summary, I believe Parsons Pistol has an excellent chance in the National Hunt Chase. I think he should be a 7-1 chance - I'm having 4ps at 12-1.

Coral Cup - Larkwing - 2pts E/W 50-1

Larkwing is a horse that runs to very different races (without any obvious reason/explanation). He has recently being running against high class hurdlers and has not been disgraced. I'm hoping that he runs to his top form tomorrow, in which he will have a live chance and would make a mockery of his 50-1 price (maybe the longer trip will help?). N.B. I've had 1pt E/W at 50-1 (4 places) and 1pt E/W at 40-1 (5 places).

Champion Chase - Mahogany Blaze 100-1 - 1pt E/W 1/4 1,2,3

Master Minded is a worthy favourite for the Champion Chase at 1-3 and I wouldn't put anyone off backing him. However, he does make the shape of the market good for E/W bets. I've selected Mahogany Blaze at 100/1. He has a chance of overturning form with Petit Robin from the Victor Chandler at Ascot - the 100/1 looks a fair price for the win. He is currently trading at 10/1 for a place on Betfair, so the 25/1 you are getting on the place on this bet seems excellent value.

Supreme Novices - Torphichen - 11/2 - 4 pts Win

With rumours flying around regarding Cosuin Vinny, there has been sustained market weakness in this runner for the Supreme Novice Hurdle. I've therefore backed Torphichen (the second favourite) with Paddy Power (who return losing bets if Cousin Vinny wins). I believe Torphichen has an excellent chance receiving the 8lb 4yo allowance - his defeat of Trenchant at Sandown is strong form (Trenchant subsequently defeated Ainama).

Champion Hurdle - Brave Inca 2pts E/W (1/4 1,2,3) - 33/1 William Hill

With forecast rain tonight, there is every possibility that the ground tomorrow on the first day of Cheltenham will be soft (even if it is described as good to soft!). This will have a signifcant affect on the chances of most horses. One horse who would benefit from softer ground would be Brave Inca. He has a an oustanding record - he was the winner of the Champion Hurdle in 2006 was also placed in 2005 and 2007.

He showed he was back close to his best when winning the Irish Champion Hurdele in January (after a long layoff through injury, hence why he missed the Chamion Hurdle in 2008). The one concern is his age - he is 11 and Champion Hurdle winners are typically 7/8. However, the 33/1 is an insult - I'd make him a 16/1 chance at most. I've backed him E/W at 33/1 at William Hill, but if Bet365 accepted bets from me, I'd have backed him at 25/1 (paying 4 places).

MASCAR - Kolbal Tools 500 - Jamie McMurray - 1.5 pts E.W 28-1 (1/4 1,2,3,4)

Jamie McMurray has been unlucky in the early races of the season (a mechanical problems, other drivers crashing into him (twice)). However, this week he could be set for a good finish (top 4 us very much acheivable). He qulaified in third showing his car has pace and this high qualifying position should enable him to avoid mid-pack trouble. He has previously shown reasonable form at this track with a run of top 15 finishes. The 28-1 is generous - I'd have made him a 14-1 chance. N.B. There is 33-1, but only with bookmakers who have effectively closed my accounts due to to my success).

Champions League - Real Madrid - 16-1 - 3.5 pts win - Coral

New manager Ramos has significantly improved the peformance of Real Madrid. They are now defensively much more strong, whilst retaining their attacking ablility (as demonstrated by their recent results). I think they are execllent value at 16-1 - I'd make them an 8-1 chance. Barcelona are woeful value at 3-1. I'm therefore having 3.5 pts at 16-1 on Real Madrid.

NASCAR - Jamie McMurray to outperform expectations

I believe Jamie McMurray has been underrated by the bookies. He performed well in the second half of the season last year and I am confident he will make the 'Shoot Out' for the top 12 drivers with 10 races left. I've therefore backed him at 66/1 (4 pts E/W) for the Sprint Cup Championship. The 'Big Three' of Busch, Edwards and Johnson are rightly the clear favourites but I believe Jamie McMurray is amongst the strongest drivers behind them. I'd have made him a 20/1 chance (which is what he will be if he wins tonight).

I think McMurray will start a run of good performance tonight with a strong drive in the Autoclub 500 at Fontana. He is on the front of the grid (having qualified in third). McMurray can follow up his strong performance last week at Daytona when he was running in fourth when taken out in the big crash. I've had 2pts E/W at 20/1 - I'd make him a 10/1 chance.

Misc. Cheltenham Festival 2009 Specials.

Around this time of year, Cheltenham speicals start to appear at the bookies. I've found three that I like the look of - if you see any you think might be value, please post in teh comments.

Favourites have a poor record at Cheltenham so you woudl expect me to be recommending outisders. However, this year I think that the favourites for the 4 Championship races are all relatively strong. These are Binocular (Champion Hurdle), Master Minded (Queen Mother), Kasbah Bliss (World Hurdle) And Kauto Star (Gold Cup)

Therfore, I have backed (for 4 pts) the 4 timer with Betfred at 20-1. (I'd make this an approx 16-1 chance).


In the Champion Hurdle, Binocular is a strong favourite. If he is a good as many think he is, there is a possibility he can win by greater than 10 lengths. Skybet quote 16/1 on this. It has happened twice in the past 20 years (Istabraq and Rooster Booster). The shape of the betting market means that it is slightly more likley to happen this year than an average year. Against this, there are potential stamina doubts with Binocular, so the horse may be held up. Combing these two factors makes me think this is an approx 10-1 chance. I've has 2pts at 16-1.


Master Minded is a rightly a very strong favourite in the Champion Chase. I think the only horse who is likley to approach him in ability is Big Zeb trained by Colm Murphy (who has a very strong Cheltenham record). I've therefore backed the Straight forecast (Master Minded to beat Big Zeb) at 5-1 at Stan James (2 pts). Id have made it a approx 7-2 chance.

Racing Post Chase - Battlecry - 2pts E/W 25-1

Nigel Twiston Davies is back in form and therefore I think his runner Battlecry has an excellent chance at 25-1 in the Racing Post Chase tomorrow. (I think he should probably be a 12-1 chance). The course, distance and ground should suit and previous poor runs when Nigel Twiston Davies was out of form means he gets into this race on a handy handicap mark.

UEFA Cup - PSG - 66/1 2pts E/W

PSG are currently 2nd in Le Championat behind Lyon and are currently in good form (6 wins in the past 7 games). I think they are overpriced at Coral's 66/1 and I have had 2pts E/W.

Cheltenham Champion Hurdle - Catch Me (33-1) 2pts E/W - Blue Sq. NRNB

Binocular is a strong favourite at 6/4 to win this year's Champion Hurdle. However at this price, I've no desire to back him Antepost. Instead, I'm backing Catch Me at Blue Sq. at 33-1 (E/W). Blue SQ are the first major bookmaker to go Non Runner, No Bet (NRNB) on the Chmapion Hurdle (i.e stakes returned if the horse doesn't make the lineup). Thsi is a key reason for backing the hosre at this bookmaker (when others go 50-1) as, at the moment, it is unclear whether the horse will be sent to the Champion Hurdle (2m) or the World Hurdle (3m).

He runs tonmorrow at Navan in he 2m5f Boyne Hurdle, but I'm not convinced a final decision will be taken until the 5 day declarations. What will probably determine the final decision is the state of the ground - if it is soft or heavy, I think he will run this horse in the Champion Hurdle.

I believe Catch Me has a a reasonable chance of at least getting placed in the Champion Hurdle. He was 6th last year in this race and 3rd the previous year in the Ballymore Properties Hurdle.

West Indies - 3rd Test - Man Of the Match - Steve Harmison - 2pts win - BlueSQ

The 3rd Test ('replacement' for 2nd Test) is played at ARG which has a high paced pitch. This means that Steve Harmison is likely to be recalled in place of James Anderson (who would have played in the 'cancelled' 2nd Test where the pitch was slower). Harmison will be fired up to take wickets to try to retain his place - I think the 25/1 is excellent value to be Man of the Match. I'd have made it a 12-1 chance (I certainly wouldn't make him the outsider). I've had 2pst at 25/1. N.B. If he is a NR, stakes returned.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Preview - Air Force One - 2 pts E/W 33-1, Notre Petre 2pts E/W 50-1

As Cheltenham approaches, I will be starting to have a few Ante Post bets. I have decided to have my first Ante Post bets in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Kauto Star is a short price at 7/4 to regain his crown (this rarely happens). With Denman underpeforming last week after his layoff through a heart problem (he is now 5-1), I think there is value to be had.

The two horse I have backed are Air Force One at 33/1 and Notre Petre at 50/1. These horses work well on different ground states (Notre Petre will act relatively better if the Ground is 'Soft'. Air Force One will prefer it 'Good').

Both horse were scheduled to run in the Irish Hennessy Gold Cup. With the race having been postponed one week, Air Force One has been pulled out. This could work in his favour as the trainer thinks his below par performance in last year's Cheltenham Festival was caused by the proximity of his prep race (I think it may have been caused by a poor round of jumping). The horse is well and is likely to take his place in the Gold Cup line up (he won't now have a prep race). Air Force One ran well in the Newbury Hennessy Gold Cup (2nd to Madison De Berlais). Although the form of that race has not worked out especially well, the winner Madison De Berlais showed he is a class horse by winning at Kempoton last week. A subsequent below par run by Air Force One in the King George should be discounted as the run was too bad to be his true running.

Notre Petre won the Welsh National and if the ground turns up soft, has a great chance. The Welsh National has a good record in providing Gold Cup Winners - Master Oats and Cool Ground both won both races. He is an improving horse and would not need to improve significantly from his current rating to take a hand in the finish of the Gold Cup (if his ground conditions prevail). He is a 3/1 chance for the Hennessy tomm0rrow - if he wins that (or goes close), he is very likley to go for the Gold Cup and could start at approximately 10/1.

Update: Between placing my bet on Notre Petre and writing this blog entry, he has been backed for the Gold Cup (due to a positive write up in the 'Weekender'.) 25-1 is now the biggest price avilable. The 33-1 is still available on Air Force One.

6 Nations - Top Try Scorer - 2pts E/W Mirco and 2pts E/W Mauro Bergamasco

Mirco And Miro Beragsmaco both have fair scoring records in the Six Nations. In 2006, Mirco was joint winner (at 200-1) with 3 tries. In 2007, Mauro was joint 4th (100-1) with 2 tries. I've had 2pts E/W at 100/1 on each of them. N.B. Mauro starts as Scrum Half today v Emgland. However, this could work to his advantage as much as hinder. The one concenr is the Italin coach insisting on not drafting in 'foreign' players, but at 100/1 you can't have everything in your favour!

Oscar Betting 2009 - Best Picture, Actor and Actress

I have been singularly unsucessful in my Oscar bets in the past. However, undaunted, I'm trying again in 2009. My thoughts as follows:

Best Film - this will probably go the 'Slumdog Millionaire', having won all the major awards leading up to the Oscars. However at a top priced 1/5 it is too short. (Golden Globe winners have only won three times in the last eight years). I've backed the only other film I belive has a realistic chance (which actually has a higher no. of nominations) 'The Curious Case of Benjamin Button'. I have taken 9/2 (6pts win).

Best Actor - the bookies make this a toss up be between Mickey Rouurke (The Wrestler) and Sean Penn (Milk). I have a sneaking suspicion that Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon) may have a chance with his superb peformance as Richard Nixon. I've backed him at 8/1 (4pts win)

Best Actress - Kate Winslet is very poor value at a shade of odds on. I think her performance accepting the prize for best Supporting Actress at the Golden Globes will not be forgotten (and the fact it was for Supporting Actress, not Best Actress at the Goldden Globes in a bad omen). In addition, British Actresses have a bad record in the Best Actress category. There has been money for Meryl Streep who has come into 7/2. What puts me off backing her is the low conversion rate from nominations to wins. Desspite thsi 7/2 is a fair price. Instead, I've backed Angleine Jolie to spring a suprise for her mesmerising peformance in 'Changeling' at 16/1. Actresses playing 'real people' have a strong record and she is the only one this year who this applies to. Ive had 4pts win.

Update: Apologies, I had the Category of Best Director when I mean Best Film. I've changed the post to read Best Director. However, I think the Best Director Category could well go to David Fincher (Director Of Benjamin Button) so I have so I've had 6pst on this as well (hope this makes sense!).

Deshea Townsend - Superbowl - MVP - 150/1 1pt

I generally try to think for myself, but as I know nothing at all about American Football, I'm going to have to trust the judgement of others. Nick Halling in today's Racing Post makes a case for Deshea Townsend at 150-1 to be MVP in tonight's Superbowl. The logic is that he can make key interceptions from the opposing QB. I've had a (very) speculative 1pt at 150-1 (100-1 is currently availible)

US Masters - Mike Weir 2.5pts E/W 80-1 (Totesport)

Mike Weir has an excellent Masters record with impressive results in previous years (even when he has been out of form.) His Masters results are as follows:

2003 Won
2004 Missed Cut
2005 Tied 5th
2006 Tied 11th
2007 Tied 20th
2008 Tied 17th

Despite a missed cut this week, he has been clearly showing a return to form with his latest 2008 results being as follows:

7/27/08 RBC Canadian Open T5
8/10/08 PGA Championship T42
8/24/08 The Barclays T7
9/01/08 Deutsche Bank Championship 2
9/07/08 BMW Championship T67
9/28/08 THE TOUR Championship T6
10/19/08 Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospitals for Children Open T10
10/26/08 Frys.com Open T4
12/21/08 Chevron World Challenge presented by Bank of America T14

Last week he was 3rd in the Bob Hope Classic, showing a continuation of his 2008 form. I think he has an excellent chance of (at a minimum) of getting placed in the Masters this year. Who knows what Tiger Woods will turn up after his injury?

Results from 2008

Attached above are my results for 2008, together with comparisons with 2006 and 2007. The results are not as impressive as previous years (30% ROI compared to 50% in 2007), however compared to other investments (houses, stock markert etc.) they don't hold up too badly!

Anyone else know of a blog that has been running for three years and/or has a average ROI of 40% across that period?! Most blogs seem to only post their results after the events and typically die off afeter a few months. If you have any blogs you would recommend, please post them in the comments.

I'm looking forward to 2009 - I have already taken some very healthy positions e.g Postmouth to be relegated @ 50-1 (now 5/2) and a Jockey to be in the Top 10 of Sports Personality of the Year 2009 @ 50-1 (now evens)