Royal and Sun Alliance Novice Hurdle - Blazing Bailey - 2pts E/W 33-1

Denman is rightly favourite for this race. However, his very strength means there is a doubt as to the participation of 2nd fav. Black Jack Ketchum.

At a much bigger price, I like Blazing Bailey. The race last weekend against Kasbah Bliss (headed for the Triumph Hurdle) could be key. Blazing Bailey will seek to avoid Kasbah Bliss and therfore is likely to take part in the R & SA Novice Hurdle. NRNB provides a protection if the horses swap destinations.

I've therefore having 2pts E/W @ Bet365 on Blazing Bailey.

N.B 3 weeks ago I'd looked at Zaiyad @ 33-1. However, before NRNB became availible (there were doubts over whcih race it would go for) it was tipped in previews! I've missed the value, it is now 10/1 :(

Update: It looks like Blazing Bailey will take on Kasbah Bliss in the Triumph Hurdle, so I will just get my stake back. .. now to find another horse for the R & SA hurdle.