2pts Win Geordieland 16-1 (Centrebet) Melbourne Cup

Geordiealnd has had a smoooth prepartion for the Melbourne Cup (unlike most of the European runners). Regular readers of my blog will know I'm a real fan of Geordieland. He think he a great chance in this race....(not taking anything away from Yeats).

Barcelona v Chelsea - Time of First Goal 81+ minutes - 25-1 1pt

I expect Chelsae to play defensively in this match which means that goals may be hard to find. However, if the score is 0-0 after 80 minutes, Barcelona will throw men forward (and could be hit on the break).

The additional advantage of this bet is you gave probably 3-4 mins of extra time to collect.

Strictly Come Dancing - Next Elimination - Ray Fearon - 33/1 -1pt

There is a definite trend in Reality TV programs for non-white contestants to receive low public votes (lower than they should according to their performances). While you can speculate on the reasons for this, the patten is so pronounced it cannot be disputed.

With black contestants Mica Paris and DJ Spooney already being voted off, Ray Fearon must be at risk. He is an excellent dancer but, if he has an average day, he may finish 3rd/4th from bottom. As DJ Spooney found to his cost last week, this may not be good enough for him to survive once the public votes have been added.

3.25 - Wetherby - Charlie Hall Chase - Kingscliff - 2pts win 8/1

Kingscliff ran well to finish 2nd in this rac last year showing he has a liking for this course/distance. He is well suited by the soft ground and fits the profile of typical winners of this race (experienced, top class chasers with course form).

Counting against him is the fact that his form tailed off at the end lof last year and that conditions of the race means he gives weight away to most of his rivals. I'm too concerned about these neagtives as he normally goes well fresh (i.e. the tailoff in form has an explanation) and his big frame means that he will be able to shoulder the big weight better than most.

Reading v Arsenal 0.5 pts E/W - Gallas - Betdirect 40-1

Event Details
Premier League - Reading v Arsenal 2006-10-22 16:00:00

Market
First Goalscorer (Each Way 1/3 1-2-3-4)

Selection
William Gallas @ 40/1

No special insight, just a recognition that Gallas gets forward regularly, has scored alreday this season and Arsenal are odds-on favs. Bet Direct's favourable E/W terms make this a reasonable bet.. worth 0.5 pts E/W anyway!

F1 - Brazil Grand Prix - Alonso 8-1 (Betfair) - 5pts win

I think that Alonso is a geat price at 8-1 (as short as 7-2 at convetional bookmmakers).

Michael Schumacher (at 10th on the grid at best) has it all to do to win this race. The Ferrais are certainly fastest, but there are obviously mechanical issues so at 4-1, he is not a great price. Massa has a reasonable chance, but evens is too short..... he will have to make way for Michale Schumacher if there is any possibility of Schumacher winning the drivers championship.

There are plenty of conspiracy theories around with Raikkonen or Massa taking out Alonso. While neither will pull out of any 50/50 with Alonso, I don't think eitehr will delibeartely run Alonso off the road. (It would have been different if Michael Schumahcer was leading the championship from Alonso!).

Alonso will play it safe, however Renault will be trying to win the Constrcutors championship (currently 9 pts) and will want to maximise their points. In addition, Michelin runners are more competitive with Bridgestone runners come race time rather than on single laps.

Finally, what happens if rains arrives? The Bridgestone shod Ferraris will be nowhere.

Saturday Racing - Newbury

3.15 Racing Post Trophy Red Rock Canyon - 1pt E/W

This strikes me as a good each way bet @ 40/1.... I've great respect for Eagle Mountain and Regime, but with soft ground at Newbury surely it woudln't be a complete surprise is a Aiden O'Brien 2nd string got placed (or even won!).

2.05 Desert Dew - 11/1 - 2pts Win

A1GP - France to win Championship - 4-1 - 10 pts win

France were the runaway winners of last years A1GP championship. In the first 2 races this year (of a 12 race championship) they have had been unfortunate not to finish either race because of two mechanical failures.

In my judgement, they should be an approx. 2-1 chance. This is a perfect example of a markets over reacting to short term events.

Calzaghe v Bika - Preview

Calzaghe is one of the geatest British boxers at present, but strange things can happen in Boxing. Bika has come here to fight and should not the price his is....... if he is going to win, I suspect it will be on points. The most likley scenario for this to happen is if there is a re-occurence of Calzaghe's hand injury which would limit his ability to box.

A draw is another possibility, most likely through an early injury e.g clash of heads... the match is automatically a draw if this happens in the first 4 rounds. (which is what happended in Bika's last fight.)

Bika to win on points - 40-1 - 1 pt
Calzaghe v Bika - draw - 66-1 - 1pt

(Both at Betfair)

Saturday Racing.....

I'm having 1pt on a Scoop 6 perm..... as well as the following Pricewise inspired bets

- 1pt win 40-1 Trance 2.50 Newmarket
- 1pt win 20-1 Prime Defender 4.10 Newmarket

Gammer v Steeds - Steeds to win on points - 7/1 Totesport, 4pts.

Given these boxers recents records, I think it is likley that this match will go to points. Thes prices on the points outcomes are

Gammer 8-11
Steeds 7-1

Gammer is short because he is a (slightly) better boxer and has a past defeat of Steeds. However, Totepsort have overreacted and the 7-1 on Steeds on points is a great price... I'd make it closer to a 3-1 chance.

Padraig Harrington - European Order of Merit - 7-1 (Betfair) - 5pts Win

If Harrington wins today (for which is is an approx 5/4 chance, he will be probably be a 6-4 chance to win the Eupean OoM. He will still be a little being the leader Casey, I believe he will then decide to play in the Mallorca tournament (I suspect his participation depends on his performance this weekend.)

There is then the final event of the season (the Volvo Masters) where there is a large amount of prize money up for grabs...

Stricly Come Dancing - Mark Ramprakash - 16-1 - 4pts win - William Hill

Having watched SCD, I belive that Mark Ramprakash as a live chance. His dancing partner has ensured he (like her previous partner) has make strong progress in in the initial 3 weeks. As Darren Gough showed in the previous series, being a sportman rather than entertainer is no barrier.

Likely (male) rivals are Ray Fearon and DJ Spoony, but the British public have not great records in voting for non white particpants. He is more lilely to be beaten by a femal partcipant, most probably Emma Bunton or Loiusa Lytton (going on pre-SCD experience.) However, they are both corresponding short prices and I prefer to see partcipants before placing my bets.

Rail Link/Arc - the bet that nearly got away.

Approx. 1 month ago I looked at Arc trends and it was clear that the winner of the Prix Niel has a strong record in the Arc. I looked at likley winners of the Prix Niel and it looked like this would be Rail Link.

I even went as far as asking for prices from bookies.... only some would offer prices (some hadn't heard of the horse!)), 25-1 being the general price. Rather than backing my judgement at that point (which I should have done), I thought I would wait until the line up to the Prix Niel was clearer (not sure at that point what the entries were). I didn't expect prices to change much.

Of course, as the day of the Prix Niel approaches, Rail Link's price crashed to approx 7-1! A win in the Prix Niel was not overly imprssive, so he therefore remained at 7-1.

I did't expect to have a bet in the Arc. However, approx 5 mins before the race, watching BBC coverage, it was clear that the Japanese had gone mad and backed Deep Impact into 1-2 on the PMU. Consquently Rail Link was approx 25-1, the price I'd misssed 1 month ago!

Therefore, I had 2pts on the PMU at what turned out to be 24-1.

I am sure this sort of opportunity will raise it's head in the Breeders Cup... my advice is to look for overseas horse that are overpriced on the American Tote... however, you will need to react quick i.e. place bets close to the off - I'd take the UK morning prices as accurate representation of chances of overseas horses.