Approx. 1 month ago I looked at Arc trends and it was clear that the winner of the Prix Niel has a strong record in the Arc. I looked at likley winners of the Prix Niel and it looked like this would be Rail Link.
I even went as far as asking for prices from bookies.... only some would offer prices (some hadn't heard of the horse!)), 25-1 being the general price. Rather than backing my judgement at that point (which I should have done), I thought I would wait until the line up to the Prix Niel was clearer (not sure at that point what the entries were). I didn't expect prices to change much.
Of course, as the day of the Prix Niel approaches, Rail Link's price crashed to approx 7-1! A win in the Prix Niel was not overly imprssive, so he therefore remained at 7-1.
I did't expect to have a bet in the Arc. However, approx 5 mins before the race, watching BBC coverage, it was clear that the Japanese had gone mad and backed Deep Impact into 1-2 on the PMU. Consquently Rail Link was approx 25-1, the price I'd misssed 1 month ago!
Therefore, I had 2pts on the PMU at what turned out to be 24-1.
I am sure this sort of opportunity will raise it's head in the Breeders Cup... my advice is to look for overseas horse that are overpriced on the American Tote... however, you will need to react quick i.e. place bets close to the off - I'd take the UK morning prices as accurate representation of chances of overseas horses.
No comments:
Post a Comment