National Movie Awards - Preview

The National Movie is a new event started up as a partner to the succesful National TV Awards. They are voted on by the public and Skybet (in the form of Helen Jacob) should be congratulated for opening a market on this event.

Prices below from Skybet and my thoughts on each event as follows:

National Movie Awards Action/Adventure - Win (Saturday September 1st, 18:00)
Casino Royale 1/3
Transformers 7/2
300 7/1
Die Hard 4.0 12/1

Casino Royale is rightly a short price for this. It is has the biggest UK box office this year and is a British film. The other films have made little box office impact. I would make it a 1-10 shot - I'm very tempted to have a max. bet on this.... I'll steer clear this time, just becasue it is the fisrt awards. There is certainaly no value in the other runners.

National Movie Awards Animation - Win (Saturday September 1st, 18:00)
The Simpsons Movie 10/11
Shrek the Third 11/10
Happy Feet 8/1
Flushed Away 16/1

The two market leaders are by far the most likely winners. A tough category to call. I'm steering clear of this market, but if you forced by hand I'd side with Shrek the Third

National Movie Awards Comedy - Win (Saturday September 1st, 18:00)
Borat: Cultural Learnings of American 1/25
Hot Fuzz 6/1
Mr Bean's Holiday 33/1
Night at the Museum 33/1

I think the market is wrong on this. Mr Bean and Night at the Museum are very unlikley winners, but I'd make it mush closer between Borat and Hot Fuzz. Both are aimed at similar demographics and did similar business at the Box Office. I'd make it 1/2 Borat, 2/1 Hot Fuzz. If ony I could lay Borat at 1/25! Instead, I'm having 1 pt on Hot Fuzz at 6/1

National Movie Awards Family - Win (Saturday September 1st, 18:00)
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix 1/10
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End 8/1
Spider-Man 3 8/1
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer 33/1

I think that this market is wrongly priced up as well. Harry Potter took approx 10% more at the Box Office - they were the 2nd and 3rd biggest UK Box Office this year (after Casino Royale). Harry Potter may be affected by the fact it has a younger (non voting) audience. I'd make this 1/2 Harry Potter, 2/1 Pirates. I'd like to be able to lay Harry Potter at 1-10! Instead I'm having 1 pt on Pirates at 8/1

National Movie Awards Family Best Male - Win (Saturday September 1st, 18:00)
Daniel Craig (Casino Royale) 2/1
Johnny Depp (Pirates of the Caribbean) 2/1
Daniel Radcliffe (Order of the Phoenix) 5/2
Tobey Maguire (Spider-Man 3) 6/1
Orlando Bloom (Pirates of the Caribbean) 14/1
Rupert Grint (Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix) 20/1
Shia LaBeouf (Transformers) 20/1
Bruce Willis (Die Hard 4.0) 20/1

I tough category to call. You can rule out Willis (too old, low box office), LeBeouf (unknown, low box office), Grint (only role is to split the 'Harry' vote), Bloom (similar to Grint, but for the Pirates vote).

The other 4 all have chances, but my gut feel is that this will come down to Depp, Craig and Radcliffe. It's a tough call, but I'm coming down in favour of Craig, but not strong enough to have a bet.

National Movie Awards Family Best Female - Win (Saturday September 1st, 18:00)
Keira Knightley (Pirates of the Caribbean) 11/8
Judi Dench (Casino Royale) 4/1
Kirsten Dunst (Spider-Man 3) 4/1
Eva Green (Casino Royale) 5/1
Emma Watson (Order of the Phoenix) 5/1
Megan Fox (Transformers) 8/1

I suspect that this will go to Keira Knightley - it is difficult to make a case for any of the others, other than perhaps Eva Green at 5/1 (Casino Royale could sweep the board). I just fear Eva Green is perhaps not quite well knwon enough. However at 11/8 I'm not quite tempted enough to have a bet on Ms Knightly.

P.S. I'd have had 4 pts on each of the 2 bets I had (Hot Fuzz, Pirates) but Skybet restricted me to 1 pts on each. (had to ring up for that, 0.01 pts availible online). Just checked other bets - on the Internet I'm know restricted to 1/100th of what other users are allowed as my max bets.

Tennis - US Open Preview

I have read two excellent reviews of Mens/Womens US Open events at:

www.bettingzone.co.uk
www.racingpost.co.uk

They agree substantially with each other and I am in strong agreement of the majority of the content of the articles. Rather than rewrite the content, please read the articles at the original source!

I've therfore had the following bets.

2.5 pts E/W Hewitt (33/1) (Mens US Open)
2 pts E/W Chakvetadze (33/1) (Womens US Open)
2.5 pts E/W Kuznetsova (25/1) (Womens US Open)

I've also had a 0.5 pts E/W double on each of Hewitt/Chakvetadze and Hewitt/Kuznetsova

Prix de L'Arc - Sageburg - 4pts win - 25-1

I'm still looking looking for the next Rail Link i.e. the Andre Fabre trained winner of the Prix Niel. At the weekend, Sagburg ran an execlllent trail and as is apparanetly being aimed at the Prix Niel. He is owned by The Aga Khan and trained by Andre Fabre .

I've invested 4pts at 25-1 at Victor Chandler - generally 20-1 elsewehere. Just wish I was on at the 350-1 he has been backed at on Betfair! If he wins the Prox Niel, he will probably start 5-1 for the Arc, gievn the strong record of Fabre trained horses (unless some barmy Japanase turn up again!).

Cincinnati Masters - 2pts E/W - Roddick - 14/1

Roddick looks a more than fair price for the Cincinnati Masters at 14/1. He had two wins and a second in the past 4 years. Back-to-Back Masters events mean that Canadian finalists Federer and Djokovic have to be opposed - they could well be tired from last night's final and could go out early in this tournament. In addition, Federer has a poor record in this event. Nadal didn't look convincing in Canada and has a poor record in this event. Roddick has been in good form recenetly, winning in Washington and only losing to an impressive Djokovic in the Canadian 1/4 finals. He is in the weaker part of half of the draw, away from Djokovic and Federer and will have strong US support. Therefore I've had 2pts E/W on Roddick at 14/1.

Premiership Top Goalscorer - Mikael Forsell - 250/1 - 1pt E/W

I've read a large number of betting previews for the forthcoming season and, as is to be expected in football, there are very few 'value' bets - the bookies have this sport well covered.

From past seasons, it is highly likley that a 100/1+ chance will get placed. This is often the lead stroker in a smaller club. Highlighted on www.bettingzone.co.uk are the chances are Mikael Forsell. 3 years ago he had an oustanding season on loan from Chelsea. He has suffered from injuries since but is back to form in pre-season friendlies (5 from 5).

You are taking a lot on trust re: injuries but this is more than factored in the price. If he scores 15+ goals he is highly likley to reach a place.

Big Brother - Liam to win - 20/1 - 2pts

With the creataion of 'Samanda', Brian is starting to look an uneasy favourite. The only other partcipant who looks like they are in a with a chance is Liam. 20/1 in a three horse race looks good value... they always say back the outsider of three! I think his price is likely to contract.

Any winnings from this will more than make up for my losses on the pitiful new entrants who have look like losing my bets on 'Any Other' being the winner (I guess Jonty may have an outside chance).