Eduardo Bruno Alves to score - Porto v Arsenal

Arsenal have some serious problem defending set pieces at the moment. Alves (a Porto centreback) is a typical player to take advantage of this. He has a reasonable scoring record and although Porto are outsiders for this game there is definately a possibility he could get on the score sheet.

The 80/1 for FGS has disappeared at Bet365, but 66/1 is still available at Betfred. I have had a total of 4pts invested, spread across FGS, LGS and Anytime goalscorer. N.B. I tried to have 2pts at Bet365 at 25/1 on Anytime goalscorer - they accepted a £2 max bet (I tried to have £50) and have since cut the price to 10/1. Have some balls guys!

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/players/stats?id=35997&&cc=5739

SCD - Cheri Lunghi to score 10pts first (2pts) / top scorer first (women's) elimination night (2pts)

Having watch the midweek program (It Takes Two/BBC2) where Cheri Lunghi performed well I have taken two further opportunities to back Cheri Lunghi

- Cheri Lunghi to score a judged 10pts first 14/1 (2pts win)
- Cheri Lunghi top scorer first (women's) elimination night 12/1 (2pts win)

(Both these markets are at Boylesports). I expect Cheri Lunghi to impress the judges with her Foxtrot tonight (a dance which will suit her). She could even score a 10....!) I am still not confident she can win, but a good performance in the first week will see her outright (25/1) and top women (14/1) price shorten.

NASCAR Market Update - Cover Bet on Biffile @ 6/1

Those of you who follow my blog will know I have the following positions on the NASCAR Sprint Cup

- 10 pts win (£250) Jimmie Johnson @ 7/1 (now favourite, top priced 7/4)
- 2 pts win ( £50) Carl Edwards @ 5/1 (now second favourite, top priced 2/1) (cover bet)

With 2 DNFs for Kyle Busch, the Sprint cup now looks increasingly like a three horse race between Johnson, Edwards and Biffle (the latter who was won the first 2 races of the chase). I have therefore has a 2nd cover bet as follows:

- 2 pts win Greg Biffle @ 6/1 (2nd cover bet)

It is 25/1 bar these 3 drivers, so I my position is +£1.6K on Jimmie Johnson, level on Edwards/Biffle and -£0.35K on the 25/1 outsiders.

Strictly Come Dancing - Cherie Lunghi - 25/1 (Outright) 7pts, 14/1 (Top Female) 5pts

The most critical attribute for winning Strictly is the ability to dance. After week one, it will be clear who can (and cannot) dance and the markets will react accordingly. Therefore, to be ahead of the game, I have backed Cherie Lunghi in the outright and top female markets.

She studied ballet when she was younger, so is likely to have the aptitude for ballroom dancing (and hence unlikely to go out early). Her age is a concern (winners are typically younger), but, being an actress. she is relatively glamorous. Whether the public take to her as a person is a difficult call (as it is for all entrants - much will depend on how the BBC choose to portray her).

I have had tho place my bets at several bookmakers as most had limits on the bets I could place. The strictest limit was Ladbrokes who insisted on a max £5 (=0.2 pt for me) bet for me online/over the phone..... so meant I had to go to shop where they don;t seem to be so strict on limits and place 4pts (£100)!

9 pts win Lance Armstrong to win 2009 Tour De France.

As expected/rumoured, Lance Armstrong has confirmed that he will try to reclaim the 2009 Tour De France. 16-1 is available at sportingbet.com. If he does make the lineup, that 16-1 may well look massive in 9 months time! I can see him starting even money favourite. Although he is 38 (very old for the Tour De France), he is a five time winner and he is/was a different class from the current riders.

I've had the following bets:

1pt sportingbet.com @16-1 (max allowed)
2pts paddypower.com @16-1 (max allowed)
4pts bet365.com @ 14-1 (well done guys - had to ring up for this, 0.1 pts allowed online!)

http://www.vanityfair.com/culture/features/2008/09/armstrong200809