2007 Sports Personality of the Year Preview - Lewis Hamilton - 4pts Win - 25-1

Most of my success this year has been in long term/antepost markets (especially in 'specialist' markets). With my recent win in the SPOTY 2006, I thought I'd take a look at SPOTY 2007.

Preview of the 2007 SPOTY.

Looking at past trends, the most likely winners of this event are as follows (in order of significance):

- Athletic Champions out Olynpics/World Championships
- England Football peformance (e.g World Cup/Qualifying)
- Winner/Runner Up in F1 World Chamionship
- Tennis Grand Slam Winner/Runner Up

There are other possibilities if:
1. The individual dominates their sport e.g. Nick Faldo (1989), Steve Davis (1988)
2. The individual plays a key part of a team performance (Wilkinson (2003) - Rugby World Cup, Flintoff (2005), Botham (1981), both Ashes).
3. Special reasons (Philips (2006)) - Royalty

Lets consider these trends in turn for 2007

Athletic Champions (e.g at 2007 World Chamionships in Osaka)
Winning the event is a must. (Winning) success has been limited in major chamionships recently. Difficult to call at this point, probably best to wait until the events has happened (or just before). Would need to be a realtively high profile event. The most obvious candidate in Paula Radcliffe. N.B. For Ante Post betting 9 months ahead, injuries are always a problem.

England Football peformance (e.g World Cup/Qualifying)
Unlikely to provide winner in 2007 - this rules out a signficant no. of the field! Footballers have only a likely chance in World Cup/European Championship years.

Winner/Runner Up in F1 World Chamionship
The only likley possibilities are Jenson Button and Lewis Hamilton.

Tennis Grand Slam Winner/Runner Up
Andrew Murray is the most likely although there is a small chance of Tim Henman making an impact at Wimbledon.

Outside of these key areas, there are

- Golf - Major winners (my be enough in a weak year, especially given the length of time when a British player last won a Major). Would probably be easier to back this individual has they came into contention in the last few holes (or after they have won the tournament)
- Cricket - Ashes - if we win/retain the Ashes (unlikely), there could be a heroic performance, especially by Monty Panesar who the public have taken a liking to.
- Boxing - Boxers have had a previously good record, but that has fallen off recently - Audley Harrison is a possibility of he wins the Heavy Weight Championship at end 2007.
- Rugby - World Cup 2007 - the weak England Performance will likely count against a winner in this category. In addition, you would need pick a single indiviudal from the team, always tricky.

Summary

At this point, I woudl suggest that the only clear candidates are as follows:

Andrew Murray (8-1)
Paula Radcliffe (16-1)
Jenson Button (16-1)
Lewis Hamilton (25-1)

As per a previous post, I predict that Lewis Hamilton will do well in F1 this year - he is already testing impressively for McClaren, one of the three leading F1 teams. The upside is the fact he does not need to win F1, a 2nd place would probably be enough. The only downside is the possibility of split F1 votes with Jenson Button - unlikely, unless Jenson Button is also challenging for the championship.

I've therefore had 4pts win on Lewis Hamilton at 25-1.

I'll be keeping a careful watch on:
- Any Bristish golfer winning a Major (or looking likely to)
- England progress in the Rugby World Cup 2007 (especilly if an indiviual is is playing a 'starring role)
- Grand Slam progress of Murray/Henman

Most importantly, any Gold medals in high profile events at the World Athletic Chamionships - this is probably the key event. I will add any of this classification of World Athletic Championship winners to my 'portfolio'.

The key to getting value on this market (as all markets) is to react quickly if a player in one of the above key categories wins (or looks likely to win). Typically the SPOTY market first lags a little, then overreacts. The market 'overshoot' can be seen by the number of SPOTY 2006 runners who traded at (very) short prices 1 day after they had won their event.