In Which Month Will Tony Blair Step Down From His Duties As Prime Minister?

William Hill have priced up 'In Which Month Will Tony Blair Step Down From His Duties As Prime Minister? '. I believe this market has been seriously mis-priced.

I think the most lilkely scenario is for Blair to stepdown from leadership of the Labour Party in May 2007, after the local elections and after 10 years in charge. He could at this point also step down as Prime Minister. The most likely scenario for this (simultaneous) resignation to happen is if their was a 'coronation' (of Brown).

However, a left wing MP has already indicated he will stand against Brown, and there is a possibility Reid will as well, triggering a leadership contest. Whilst a leadership contest takes place, I believe Blair will retain his position as Prime Minister. With an expected 8 weeks for the leadership contest, my thinking is that Blair will cease his duties as Prime Minister in July 07. This is confirmed by the (well connected) political correspondent of 'The Sun'.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2006410396,00.html

A strict reading of the Labour Leadership rules would be that a resignation would be followed by an appointment at the Labour party conference in Sept. 07.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/5177180.stm

The prices they have are as follows (Month, Price) : May 1.57 April 4.00 March 8.00 June 15.00 February 17.00 July 26.00 September 34.00 October 34.00 January 34.00 August 51.00 Any Other 51.00

Therefore my staking plan is as follows:

6 pts - July - 25/1
1 pt - August - 50/1
1 pt - September -33/1

N.B (i) This market is very different from the Betfair market which is 'When will Tony Blair officially cease to be leader of the Labour Party?'
N.B (ii) The book closes at 5:30 p.m. today. (Although it may be re-opened)