10pts Win - Hilary Benn - Labour Deputy Leadership - 3/1

The field for the Labour deputy leadership election is not yet finalized, but I think that Hilary Benn is a first rate bet at 3/1. The reasons are as folllows (in order of importance):

- Has an approx. 10-15% lead in the latest YouGov deputy leadership poll. The results are as follows:

http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/TEL070101005_1.pdf

YouGov surveyed Labour Pary members and Union mebers, two of the three constituents of the leadership election (MPs are the other). N.B. A complication is that Union votes are not decideded by block vote, but I suspect that union leaders will influence how their members vote.

YouGov has a good record in these events and peformed well when predicting the Lid Dem and Conservative leadership elections.

- Hilary Benn has popular support amongst the general population, as indicated by the YouGov popularity Index where he has the highest ratings of the Labour politicians listed
- Unlike some of the other runners, has declared his intention to run
- His name recognition, being son of the iconic Tony Benn

Candidates need 44 MPs to support them to be able to stand, but I am confident that Hilary Benn will achieve this goal.