I have been closely following the Fench Presidentail polls over the past 4 weeks. The changes can be clearly seen on the following graph (from one of the major polling organisations).
This reslts of this poll have been confirmed by the another major polling organisations.
I believe that the bookies have seriously misjudged this market. Momemtum is a key element in politics and I am confident that Bayrou can attact enough votes from both the left (Royale) and right (Sarkozy) to make the top 2 - he is nearly there now! I then believe by nature of being the centre candidate he is highly likely to win the final 2 'man' runoff - there is no great liking for either Sarkozy or Royale.
N.B. William Hill have temporarily taken down this market, however I expect it to reappear (not sure what price he will then be). Bayrou is availible at 4-1 at expekt.com - this is still at great price! (He is shorter on Betfair).