NASCAR Sprint Cup Series - Jimmie Johnson - 7/1 - 10pts win

After 20 races of the 36 race season, the current standings after are as follows:

1 Kyle Busch 3,004
2 Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 2,751
3 Jeff Burton 2,733
4 Jimmie Johnson 2,689
5 Carl Edwards 2,684
6 Jeff Gordon 2,544
7 Greg Biffle 2,460
8 Denny Hamlin 2,453
9 Kasey Kahne 2,441
10 Tony Stewart 2,399
11 Matt Kenseth 2,366
12 Clint Bowyer 2,283

The current prices are:

Kyle Busch 13/8
Dale Earnhardt Jr 13/2
Jimmie Johnson 7/1
Carl Edwards 7/1
Jeff Gordon 12/1

These relatively cloesely mirror the points standings, with Kyle Busch a heavy favourite.

The fact that 12 places are listed is no coincidence. Since 2004, to ensure that that the NASCAR series stays 'alive', the points are set to 5000 with after 26 races (i.e with 10 races to go) for the top drivers (top 12 in 2008). The only points benefit of winning races prior to this date is the addition of 10 pts per win for prior wins (not hugely significant). The first 'key' race is the 27th race (the Sylvania 300) on 14/09/2008 and the series finishes at the Ford 400 on 16/11/2008.

(The closest similarity I can think of is the Football League Championship playoffs).

The past results of the NASCAR (since the new scoring mechanism) are:

Leader After 26 races (final position in brackets)

2004 Jeff Gordon (3rd)
2005 Tony Stewart (1st)
2006 Matt Kenseth (2nd)
2007 Jimmie Johnson (1st)

Winner after 36 races (position after 26 races in brackets)

2004 Kurt Busch (7th)
2005 Tony Stewart (1st)
2006 Jimmie Johnson (2nd)
2007 Jimmie Johnson (1st)

The last three Sprint Cup Series have gone to a driver who was either 1st or 2nd after 26 races. (Lower down the order there is a much less strong correlation).

With 6 races to go to the 10 key races, the man currently in form is Jimmie Johnson (he is favourite this evening). He has been relatively unlucky this season so far - I think he is likely to be either first or second in the standings after 26 races. As he has won the last two NASCAR Cup series (also 2nd in 2004 and 5th in 2005, Jimmie Johnson) may well have the expeience to win a third.

I've therefore backed Jimmie Johnson at 7/1 (10 pts win) at Stan James.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_NASCAR_Sprint_Cup_Series
http://www.nascar.com/races/cup/2008/data/schedule.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASCAR